GfK Group
Graded against the actual result across 17 races (from 23 polls, through 2016).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 17 races GfK Group actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| GfK Group | 4.06 | 88% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 1.98 | 100% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (17)
Each race GfK Group polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 US President | D+14.0 | D+2.2 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 2012 US President | R+2.0 | D+3.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2008 NC Governor | EVEN | D+3.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2008 NH Governor | D+56.0 | D+42.6 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 2008 CO President | D+9.0 | D+9.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2008 FL President | D+2.0 | D+2.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2008 NC President | D+2.0 | D+0.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 NH President | D+18.0 | D+9.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2008 NV President | D+12.0 | D+12.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2008 OH President | D+7.0 | D+4.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2008 PA President | D+12.0 | D+10.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 US President | D+1.0 | D+7.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2008 VA President | D+7.0 | D+6.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 CO Senate | D+12.0 | D+10.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 NC Senate | D+4.0 | D+8.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2008 NH Senate | D+6.0 | D+6.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2008 VA Senate | D+26.0 | D+31.3 | 5.3 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 17 | 4.06 | -1.01 | 88% |
| 6–9 wk | 4 | 7.39 | +1.24 | 50% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.