Democratic
Troy Jackson
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins: Maine U.S. Senate election, 2026
Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins. Incumbent lost re-election. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Troy Jackson favored
Lean D
84%
chance to win
D+2.9
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 31 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Susan Collins
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
35 polls · 31 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government10-052026-10-05D+5.0D+4.3
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Troy JacksonDEM$26.9M raised
Spent $25.3MCash on hand $1.6MDebts $701k37% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$9.0M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1.3M
- Legal & Professional Services$361k
- Education & Academia$270k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$262k
States
- CA$2.7M
- ME$2.0M
- MA$1.7M
- NY$1.4M
- WA$528k
Susan CollinsREP · incumbent$25.2M raised
Spent $23.8MCash on hand $2.7M11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$5.3M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1.1M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$989k
- Legal & Professional Services$393k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$116k
States
- FL$1.8M
- CA$1.4M
- ME$1.3M
- NY$1.2M
- TX$919k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 84%
a probability from our model
Cook
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Maine we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
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Analysis: Inside the Downfall of Susan Collins
Susan Collins' long-running balancing act in Trump-era politics came to an abrupt end in Maine on Tuesday. The five-term Republican senator and Appropriations Committee chair lost her bid for a sixth term to Democrat Troy Jackson, and as she tells the New Yor…
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