Democratic
Peggy Flanagan
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya: Minnesota U.S. Senate election, 2026
Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya. Incumbent retiring. DFL hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Peggy Flanagan favored
Safe D
98%
chance to win
D+6.1
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 19 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Michele Tafoya
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Peggy Flanagan · DFL
- Marisa Simonetti · Independent
- Rebecca Whiting · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
24 polls · 19 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
SurveyUSAGrade A08-172026-08-17D+5.0D+5.0
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Michele TafoyaREP$12.5M raised
Spent $9.7MCash on hand $2.8MDebts $442k42% from donors under $200Self-funded $8k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$3.2M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$380k
- Not Reported$249k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$119k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$41k
States
- MN$2.6M
- FL$487k
- CA$439k
- TX$382k
- AZ$146k
Peggy FlanaganDFL$11.6M raised
Spent $10.6MCash on hand $993k39% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2.4M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$633k
- Retired$530k
- Legal & Professional Services$152k
- Technology & Communications$149k
States
- MN$2.6M
- CA$1.1M
- NY$321k
- MA$280k
- IL$187k
Rebecca WhitingLIB$4k raised
Spent $2kCash on hand $2k27% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1k
States
- MN$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 98%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Minnesota we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
After Blue Tsunami, Progressives Don't Trust Schumer and Jeffries to Lead Congress
After a Democratic "tsunami" in this week's midterm elections that has been widely seen as "a mandate to deliver big change," progressives within and beyond Congress have cast doubt on whether the New York Democrats likely to lead both chambers are actually u…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
The Midterms Weren’t Red vs. Blue, They Were Bought vs. Not Bought
This week, voters in red and purple states sent Democrats to the Senate who ran against corporate money. James Talarico won in Texas. Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Adam Hamilton won in Kansas. All three took $0 in corporate PAC money.More than 16 years…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
WATCH: Minnesota’s Democrat Senator-Elect Peggy Flanagan Declares 'We Will Rip ICE Apart'
The comment came as Flanagan, now the first Native American woman elected to the Senate, claimed victory in the open seat left by retiring Democrat Tina Smith. During her speech, Flanagan said Minnesotans had rejected what she called President Donald Trump’s …
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
'No Blank Checks for Big Tech': Schumer Faces Protest Over 'Dirty Data Center Deal'
Protesters are planning to gather outside the Brooklyn home of US Sen. Chuck Schumer on Friday morning, demanding he block what they've dubbed a "dirty data center deal" from passing through the Senate.The bill, known as the Bipartisan American Affordability …
Common Dreams · November 5, 2026
Calls to Replace Jeffries and Schumer Explode After Democratic Wins
Calls for Representative Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Chuck Schumer to step down from their leadership positions are growing as the dust from Tuesday’s midterm election settles. The calls—coming from inside and outside of Congres—cite a lack of vision, an unwi…
The New Republic · November 5, 2026
Trump Endorsement, Omar Raid Hurt Tafoya in Minnesota Senate Race: Expert
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican Michele Tafoya and the federal raid on Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar’s home contributed to Tafoya’s loss against Democrat Peggy Flanagan for a Minnesota U.S. Senate seat, a political science professor …
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Trump avoids discussing GOP midterm losses as he tours White House ballroom
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump gave extended comments Wednesday, not about the Republican Party's midterm election wipeout but instead justifying his building a sprawling White House ballroom. Trump invited reporters into a cavernous construction s…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Rising Political Stars to Watch After the 2026 Midterms
As the results of the 2026 midterm elections come in, more than a handful of breakout winners are poised to reshape America’s political landscape in the new year. From history-makers like Keisha Lance Bottoms to change-makers like Aaron Ford, let’s take a loo…
The Root · November 4, 2026