Democratic
Peggy Flanagan
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Minnesota U.S. Senate election, 2026
Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya. Incumbent retiring.
VotePredictor forecast
Peggy Flanagan favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+5.4
93%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 5 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Michele Tafoya
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Peggy Flanagan · DFL
- Marisa Simonetti · Independent
- Rebecca Whiting · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2026-10-04 | D+8.0 |
| Big Data Poll | 2026-09-30 | D+2.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-14 | EVEN |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-10 | D+3.8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-08-17 | D+5.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely D
as of Oct 6, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D
as of Oct 13, 2026
Econ
Lean D
as of Oct 12, 2026
FPO
Likely D
as of Oct 13, 2026
Fox
Lean D
as of Oct 13, 2026
IE
Lean D
as of Oct 1, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Oct 12, 2026
Sabato
Likely D
as of Oct 6, 2026
Silver
Likely D
as of Oct 13, 2026
ST
Likely D
as of Oct 7, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Minnesota we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Sleeper GOP candidate puts blue-leaning state in play as fraud scandal shadows Dems
Michele Tafoya trails Peggy Flanagan by just four points as Minnesota's massive welfare fraud scandal reshapes the rare GOP Senate pickup bid.
Fox News · Yesterday
EXCLUSIVE: Peggy Flanagan’s grandfather was suspected in serial killings, spent decades in mental hospitals, records reveal
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has frequently spoken about her family history, particularly her Native American heritage and the struggles of being raised by a single mother who relied on government assistance. Her personal story has become a central theme…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
Minnesota Has Ilhan Omar’s Back
Politics / October 14, 2026 Minnesota Has Ilhan Omar’s Back Minnesotans say the raid on Omar’s home was all about politics. They also argue that it will backfire and generate boosted turnout for DFL candidates. John Nichols …
Thenation.com · Yesterday
Will Republicans or Democrats win the Senate? These key midterm races will decide.
Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs in November's election. But as important as the House of Representatives is, all signs point to the true drama of the midterms being in the battle for the Senate. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot thi…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 13, 2026
MN Democrat Senate Candidate Peggy Flanagan Shares Her Ojibwe Name: 'I'm Going to Be Minnesota's Voice'
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) shared the meaning of her Ojibwe name, stating that she would be "Minnesota's voice in the U.S. Senate" and not President Donald Trump's. The post MN Democrat Senate Candidate Peggy Flanagan Shares Her Ojibwe Name: ‘I’m G…
Breitbart News · October 13, 2026
Wednesday’s Campaign Round-Up, 10.14.26: Tafoya says she’s ‘pro-choice’ despite her record
Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country. * In Minnesota’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, GOP nominee Michele Tafoya launched a new campaign ad this week in which she identified herself as “a pro-choice Republican” as evid…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
'I’m A Pro-Choice Republican,' Says Minnesota Senate Nominee Who Backs Abortion Bans
Michele Tafoya, who called herself a “first trimester gal” and hailed Roe v. Wade’s demise, seems to be gaslighting voters on her abortion stance.
HuffPost · October 13, 2026