Democratic
Peggy Flanagan
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Minnesota U.S. Senate election, 2026
Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya. Incumbent retiring.
VotePredictor forecast
Peggy Flanagan favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.8
65%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 5 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Michele Tafoya
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Peggy Flanagan · DFL
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-14 | EVEN |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-10 | D+3.8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-08-17 | D+5.0 |
| Impact Research | 2026-05-28 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-02-08 | D+6.4 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely D
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Lean D
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Likely D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Likely D
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Likely D
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Likely D
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Likely D
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Lean D
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Minnesota we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
MN Dem Senate candidate's viral hijab video takes new turn as woman beside her faces major state investigation
Peggy Flanagan faces new scrutiny after a longtime friend's autism center, Milestone Development Centers, is investigated for Medicaid fraud.
Fox News · Yesterday
Ex-NFL reporter Michele Tafoya hammers Minnesota Dems on welfare fraud — as polls show her neck and neck in Senate race
Minnesota Senate candidate Michele Tafoya dragged her Democratic opponent, Lieutenant Gov. Peggy Flanagan, over alleged welfare fraud in the state under her watch — as new polls predict an incredibly close match-up. Tafoya, a former NFL reporter who won a cro…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
Dead Heat in Minnesota’s Senate Race
A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota finds Peggy Flanagan (D) and Michele Tafoya (R) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 42%. Minnesota Senate Race Peggy Flanagan (D) 42% Michele Tafoya (R) 42% KSTP/SurveyUSA poll · ±4.4%
Politicalwire.com · September 16, 2026
Peggy Flanagan's Chances of Losing to Michele Tafoya in Minnesota: Polls
Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll, though her advantage falls within the survey's margin of error, highlighting a competitive contest less …
Biztoc.com · September 11, 2026
Flanagan Leads Tafoya in Minnesota Senate Race
A new Quantus Insights poll in Minnesota finds Peggy Flanagan (D) leading Michele Tafoya (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 44%. Minnesota Senate Race Peggy Flanagan (D) 48% Michele Tafoya (R) 44% Quantus Insights poll · likely voters · ±4.2%
Politicalwire.com · September 11, 2026
Ex-NFL reporter Michele Tafoya hammers Minnesota Dems on welfare fraud — as polls show her neck and neck in Senate race
“We’ve got a clean house, and it’s going to start with the top of the ticket, and that’s the US Senate, where people are,” Tafoya said.
New York Post · September 20, 2026
Michele Tafoya Lies Defending January 6th Insurrectionists
The Republican nominee to become the next senator in Minnesota, Michele Tafoya, claimed that many January 6ers whom Trump pardoned were mere victims of a weaponized government and were treated unfairly. TAFOYA: And you may now know that he was at the Capitol…
Crooksandliars.com · September 15, 2026