Democratic
Alani Bankhead
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Montana U.S. Senate election, 2026
Alani Bankhead vs. Kurt Alme. Incumbent retiring.
Nominee changed — Daines retired, Alme nominated
The polls behind this forecast ask about Steve Daines, who withdrew from his own re-election race on March 4, 2026 — minutes before the filing deadline — and is retiring. Former federal prosecutor Kurt Alme filed just before that deadline and won the Republican primary with Trump's endorsement; Alani Bankhead won the Democratic primary over Reilly Neill, whom these polls also name. BOTH polled candidates are off the ballot, so nothing here describes the November race. The forecast returns once a pollster asks about Alme vs Bankhead.
No forecast is published for this race. Kurt Alme is the Republican nominee; the forecast returns once a pollster asks about the new matchup.
Republican
Kurt Alme
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Kyle Austin · Libertarian
- Seth Bodnar · Independent
Polls
No verified 2026 general-election poll is currently available in the feed for this race.
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Safe R
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Likely R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Solid R
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Likely R
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Safe R
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Solid R
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Safe R
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Montana we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Montana Senate showdown emerges as Trump-backed Republican faces independent challenge
Montana's Senate race features a three-way battle between Kurt Alme, Seth Bodnar and Reilly Neill after Sen. Steve Daines dropped his reelection bid.
Fox News · June 3, 2026
Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's race
LIVINGSTON, Mont. (AP) — Former state lawmaker Reilly Neill of Livingston has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Montana governor.
Associated Press · January 22, 2020
Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate Race
An exclusive Quantus Insights poll shows Republican Kurt Alme at 43.6%, leading independent Seth Bodnar by 19.3 points in Montana’s Senate race. The post Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate Race appeared first on Breitba…
Breitbart News · September 17, 2026
Alme Holds Solid Lead in Montana’s Senate Race
A new Montana Free Press/Rutgers Eagleton poll in Montana finds Kurt Alme (R) leading Seth Bodnar (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 38% to 30%, with Alani Bankhead (D) at 16%. Montana Senate Race Kurt Alme (R) 38% Seth Bodnar (I) 30% Alani Bankhead (D) 16% M…
Politicalwire.com · September 12, 2026
Republican exploits divided field in Montana Senate race
The failure of two candidates — one Democratic and one independent — to consolidate anti-Republican support against GOP candidate Kurt Alme is propelling him to victory, according to polling first shared with Semafor. Alme is currently winning 44% of the vote…
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
Exclusive — Kurt Alme: Montana's ‘Democrat in Disguise’ Seth Bodnar Runs on Liberal ActBlue Cash, Should Refund $1.76M
Montana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kurt Alme is calling on independent candidate Seth Bodnar to return the $1.76 million his campaign has raised through ActBlue, accusing Bodnar of concealing his political leanings while relying heavily on the Democrat …
Breitbart News · August 25, 2026
No Candidates Drop from Montana Senate Race Despite Pressure from Democrats
No candidates dropped from the Montana U.S. Senate race on Monday as the August 10 deadline rolled past, making it a three-way race between Democrat Alani Bankhead, independent Seth Bodnar, and Republican Kurt Alme. The post No Candidates Drop from Montana Se…
Breitbart News · August 11, 2026