Democratic
Alani Bankhead
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Montana U.S. Senate election, 2026
Alani Bankhead vs. Kurt Alme. Incumbent retiring.
VotePredictor forecast
Kurt Alme favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+24.4
99%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 5 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Kurt Alme
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Kyle Austin · Libertarian
- Seth Bodnar · Independent
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Aspect Strategic | 2026-09-15 | R+30.0 |
| FiftyPlusOne | 2026-09-15 | R+23.6 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-15 | R+21.0 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | 2026-09-07 | R+22.0 |
| Peak Insights | 2026-08-25 | R+25.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
as of Oct 6, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R
as of Oct 13, 2026
Econ
Safe R
as of Oct 12, 2026
FPO
Likely R
as of Oct 13, 2026
Fox
Solid R
as of Oct 13, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Oct 1, 2026
RCP
Likely R
as of Oct 12, 2026
Sabato
Safe R
as of Oct 14, 2026
Silver
Solid R
as of Oct 13, 2026
ST
Safe R
as of Oct 14, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Montana we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Drama Over Montana's Democratic Senate Nominee Grows
The leader of Montana's Democratic party just torched her own party's Senate nominee—and walked away from the job, the Washington Post reports. On Monday, Shannon O'Brien quit as chair of the Montana Democratic Party and publicly backed independent Seth Bodna…
Newser · October 13, 2026
Montana Democrat who refuses to drop out may spoil party’s Senate hopes
Candidate Alani Bankhead vigorously denies claims she is a Republican plant running to take votes away from a more popular independent. KALISPELL, Mont. — Her candidacy was boosted with mysterious dark money. Some of her own party have suggested she is a “Rep…
Freerepublic.com · October 10, 2026
Alme Holds Solid Lead in Montana’s Senate Race
A new Montana Free Press/Rutgers Eagleton poll in Montana finds Kurt Alme (R) leading Seth Bodnar (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 38% to 30%, with Alani Bankhead (D) at 16%. Montana Senate Race Kurt Alme (R) 38% Seth Bodnar (I) 30% Alani Bankhead (D) 16% M…
Politicalwire.com · September 12, 2026
Exclusive: Air Force Veteran Fought in Wars, Arrested Terrorists and Child Predators. Now She’s Running for US Senate
Alani Bankhead spoke to Military.com about a three-person race in Montana that could have major implications on Congress come November.
Military.com · August 20, 2026
‘I’ll Never Bow Down’: Democrat Announces She Refuses To Step Aside As Party Leaders Left Frustrated
Montana Democratic Senate nominee Alani Bankhead announced Monday that she refused to drop out of her campaign, giving the Republican a better chance.
The Daily Caller · August 11, 2026
Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate Race
An exclusive Quantus Insights poll shows Republican Kurt Alme at 43.6%, leading independent Seth Bodnar by 19.3 points in Montana’s Senate race. The post Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate Race appeared first on Breitba…
Breitbart News · September 17, 2026
Republican exploits divided field in Montana Senate race
The failure of two candidates — one Democratic and one independent — to consolidate anti-Republican support against GOP candidate Kurt Alme is propelling him to victory, according to polling first shared with Semafor. Alme is currently winning 44% of the vote…
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
Exclusive — Kurt Alme: Montana's ‘Democrat in Disguise’ Seth Bodnar Runs on Liberal ActBlue Cash, Should Refund $1.76M
Montana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kurt Alme is calling on independent candidate Seth Bodnar to return the $1.76 million his campaign has raised through ActBlue, accusing Bodnar of concealing his political leanings while relying heavily on the Democrat …
Breitbart News · August 25, 2026