Democratic
Alani Bankhead
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Montana U.S. Senate election, 2026
Alani Bankhead vs. Kurt Alme. Incumbent retiring.
VotePredictor forecast
Kurt Alme favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+21.0
98%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 7 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Kurt Alme
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Kyle Austin · Libertarian
- Seth Bodnar · Independent
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research[75] | 2026-07-27 | R+20.0 |
| GQR[76][B] | 2026-07-26 | R+19.0 |
| Bullfinch Group[77] | 2026-07-16 | R+14.0 |
| Hart Research[79][C] | 2026-06-24 | R+25.0 |
| GrayHouse[78] | 2026-06-24 | R+16.0 |
| Tavern Research[80] | 2026-06-19 | R+12.0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2026-06-11 | R+19.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
IE
Solid R
Sabato
Likely R
WH
Likely R
Econ
Safe R
RCP
Lean R
DDHQ
Likely R
Fox
Solid R
VoteHub
Likely R
FPO
Likely R
ST
Safe R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
Montana Senate showdown emerges as Trump-backed Republican faces independent challenge
Montana's Senate race features a three-way battle between Kurt Alme, Seth Bodnar and Reilly Neill after Sen. Steve Daines dropped his reelection bid.
Fox News · June 3, 2026
Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's race
LIVINGSTON, Mont. (AP) — Former state lawmaker Reilly Neill of Livingston has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Montana governor.
Associated Press · January 22, 2020
How the Democrats Can Win by Losing in Montana and Other States
Alani Bankhead, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana, should end her campaign and clear the path for independent Seth Bodnar to consolidate the votes of the state’s non-Republicans. Bodnar is polling better than Bankhead in head-to-head matchups again…
The New Republic · July 30, 2026
Thune headed for 'worst scenario' as MAGA grows and allies disappear: report
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is facing the very real prospect of losing control of his caucus as his close confidants disappear and his chamber is overrun with MAGA fanatics.According to a report from Axios, what awaits Thune after the midterm ele…
Raw Story · July 29, 2026
Sen. Daines: Having Dinner With JD Vance Is Enough Oversight On Iran War
Sen. Steve Daines exposed his ignorance on the US Constitution, budgetary matters and Congressional oversight when he told Fox Business he will vote against an upcoming Senate bill to limit Trump's war powers claiming it violated the principles of the Foundin…
Crooksandliars.com · July 24, 2026
'Not oversight!' Outrage as scrambling GOP senator cites dinnertime chat with VP
Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) sparked ridicule Thursday after citing a dinner at Vice President JD Vance's home as evidence he was meeting his oversight responsibilities on the Iran war.During a Thursday broadcast on Fox Business, host Stuart Varney asked whether …
Raw Story · July 23, 2026
Graham’s death may not shake loose his long-sought Russia sanctions bill
The News Many senators see no more fitting tribute to their late colleague Lindsey Graham than passing his bipartisan Russia sanctions bill as soon as possible. That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to do it. “Slam dunks are getting tougher in the United States S…
Biztoc.com · July 13, 2026