Democratic
Alani Bankhead
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Alani Bankhead vs. Kurt Alme: Montana U.S. Senate election, 2026
Alani Bankhead vs. Kurt Alme. Incumbent retiring. Republican hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Kurt Alme favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+24.4
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 10 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Kurt Alme
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Seth Bodnar · Independent
- Kyle Austin · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
19 polls · 10 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Seth BodnarIND$4.9M raised
Spent $4.3MCash on hand $581k15% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GUYETTE, JAMES$49k
- GALLINGER, SEAN$21k
- NELSON, STEPHEN$21k
- WOODY, BILL$21k
- HARRIS, WILLIAM SR$13k
Industries
- Unemployed$1.9M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$514k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$190k
- Legal & Professional Services$110k
- Education & Academia$53k
States
- MT$1.5M
- CA$740k
- NY$349k
- MA$214k
- WA$191k
Kurt AlmeREP$3.0M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $603k6% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$364k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$160k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$124k
- Legal & Professional Services$68k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$32k
States
- MT$687k
- CA$109k
- FL$102k
- VA$84k
- CT$75k
Kyle AustinLIB$262k raised
Spent $260kCash on hand $3kDebts $57k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $261k
Top contributors, industries and states
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗Alani BankheadDEM$191k raised
Spent $168kCash on hand $23k46% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$34k
- Retired$24k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$6k
- Legal & Professional Services$4k
States
- MT$56k
- CA$12k
- CO$7k
- VA$4k
- WA$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Montana we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
900: Talk Me Into It
It’s the midterms! This week’s show is about people changing their minds and not changing their minds — and the people trying to do the persuading. Start a Life Partners free trial to watch our new video, A Night of Stories and Improv.(00:00:00) Prologue: In…
Thisamericanlife.org · November 2, 2026
Buttigieg endorses independent Seth Bodnar in Montana Senate race
Pete Buttigieg chose to endorse independent Seth Bodnar over the Democratic Senate nominee, Alani Bankhead. Bodnar says he will not caucus with Democrats if he wins.
CBS News · October 23, 2026
Drama Over Montana's Democratic Senate Nominee Grows
The leader of Montana's Democratic party just torched her own party's Senate nominee—and walked away from the job, the Washington Post reports. On Monday, Shannon O'Brien quit as chair of the Montana Democratic Party and publicly backed independent Seth Bodna…
Newser · October 13, 2026
Montana Democrat who refuses to drop out may spoil party’s Senate hopes
Candidate Alani Bankhead vigorously denies claims she is a Republican plant running to take votes away from a more popular independent. KALISPELL, Mont. — Her candidacy was boosted with mysterious dark money. Some of her own party have suggested she is a “Rep…
Freerepublic.com · October 10, 2026
Alme Holds Solid Lead in Montana’s Senate Race
A new Montana Free Press/Rutgers Eagleton poll in Montana finds Kurt Alme (R) leading Seth Bodnar (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 38% to 30%, with Alani Bankhead (D) at 16%. Montana Senate Race Kurt Alme (R) 38% Seth Bodnar (I) 30% Alani Bankhead (D) 16% M…
Politicalwire.com · September 12, 2026
JD Vance Swamped With Groans At MAGA Rally As He Mangles Local Town Name
A crowd at a Republican rally in Montana groaned as Vice President JD Vance, campaigning for the party’s midterm candidates, mispronounced the name of Helena, the state capital. Video of Monday’s rally in Belgrade, near Bozeman, shows Vance stressing the mi…
Crooksandliars.com · October 27, 2026
Vance mocks ‘yahoos’ as MAGA Montana rally derailed by heckler
Vice President JD Vance’s Montana rally was thrown off course Monday when a heckler began shouting from the crowd, setting off boos and “USA” chants as she was escorted out. A woman began shouting as Vance spoke at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport in…
Raw Story · October 26, 2026
Conservatives demand competition — except in their own primaries
Conservatives say they believe in competition. So why on earth do we tolerate a political system in which one man effectively picks our candidates before voters have a chance to examine them?Friedrich Hayek understood why monopoly is dangerous: “Our freedom o…
TheBlaze · October 21, 2026