Democratic
Roy Cooper
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
North Carolina U.S. Senate election, 2026
Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley. Incumbent retiring.
VotePredictor forecast
Roy Cooper favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+7.7
88%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 32 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Michael Whatley
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Shannon Bray · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-17 | D+5.9 |
| FiftyPlusOne[106] | 2026-09-17 | D+9.1 |
| 270toWin[104] | 2026-09-17 | D+8.8 |
| Decision Desk HQ[105] | 2026-09-17 | D+9.1 |
| RealClearPolitics[108] | 2026-09-17 | D+8.8 |
| Silver Bulletin[93] | 2026-09-17 | D+8.9 |
| Race to the WH[107] | 2026-09-15 | D+8.5 |
| Harper Polling | 2026-09-15 | D+15.0 |
| East Carolina University | 2026-09-03 | D+8.0 |
| Elon University/YouGov | 2026-08-31 | D+11.0 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2026-08-12 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling | 2026-08-10 | D+12.5 |
| Change Research | 2026-08-06 | D+7.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-08-01 | D+9.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-07-27 | D+9.0 |
| Elon University/YouGov | 2026-07-23 | D+11.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-07-11 | D+4.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | D+7.0 |
| YouGov | 2026-06-10 | D+14.0 |
| Harper Polling | 2026-05-11 | D+11.1 |
| Change Research | 2026-05-08 | D+7.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 2026-04-24 | D+9.0 |
| High Point University / YouGov | 2026-04-06 | D+8.0 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov | 2026-04-06 | D+8.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-04-01 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling | 2026-03-23 | D+7.8 |
| YouGov | 2026-03-18 | D+14.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-14 | D+3.0 |
| Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions | 2026-03-09 | D+18.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-02-04 | D+10.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-01-15 | D+24.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-01-07 | D+5.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Lean D (flip)
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D (flip)
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Likely D (flip)
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Likely D (flip)
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Lean D (flip)
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Tilt D (flip)
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Lean D (flip)
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Likely D (flip)
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Likely D (flip)
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in North Carolina we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican group yanks millions from Senate ranks that may decide control of Congress
A Republican super PAC abruptly cut $6.5 million in planned advertising in a crucial Senate race where President Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate has consistently trailed his Democratic opponent.Old North Action removed the October reservations from North Ca…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Transcript: Trump’s Pollster Drops Bomb on GOP as Midterm Panic Erupts
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the September 21 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.A new po…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Trump ask Republicans to ‘pretend I’m on the ballot.’ But his ask is based on a myth
After driving North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis into retirement, Trump visited the state on Wednesday to campaign for GOP nominee Michael Whatley, who is trailing Democrat Roy Cooper in the polls. “I’m asking you to just pretend I’m on the ballot just one more …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
WATCH: Undercover Video Shows Democrat Roy Cooper Refusing to Apologize to Murder Victims' Families
An undercover video of soft-on-crime North Carolina Democrat Senate candidate Roy Cooper shows him repeatedly refusing to apologize to families of murder victims tied to his mass prison release. The post WATCH: Undercover Video Shows Democrat Roy Cooper Refus…
Breitbart News · September 18, 2026
Transcript: The Mistakes That The Democrats Keep Making
This is a lightly edited transcript of the September 17 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.Perry Bacon: Hi, this is Right Now on The New Republic, and I’m the host, Perry Bacon.…
The New Republic · September 18, 2026
Pro-life group ramps up NC ground game as report finds fed abortion message gives GOP candidate biggest boost
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America says pro-life messages on Roy Cooper's abortion record shifted voters toward Republican Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race.
Fox News · Today
Ken Paxton snubbed from Texas GOP fundraisers as polls spell trouble: report
Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) are teaming up to raise money for Senate Republicans nationwide, but they've pointedly left one candidate off the guest list: Ken Paxton, the GOP's own Senate nominee in their home state of Texas.Cor…
Raw Story · Today
Trump refers to Black man from racially offensive 1988 campaign ad while stumping in North Carolina - AP News
Trump refers to Black man from racially offensive 1988 campaign ad while stumping in North CarolinaAP News Trump’s transactional presidency takes a more brazen turnCNN Trump emphasizes crime in midterm push in North CarolinaThe Washington Post Trump visit dra…
Slashdot.org · September 18, 2026