Democratic
Chris Pappas
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
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Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu: New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, 2026
Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu. Incumbent retiring. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Chris Pappas favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+8.2
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 16 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
John E. Sununu
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Edmond LaPlante · Constitution
Polls
The polls behind it
27 polls · 16 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Chris PappasDEM$23.7M raised
Spent $22.1MCash on hand $2.0M30% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$7.7M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1.1M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$615k
- Legal & Professional Services$555k
- Not Reported$293k
States
- NH$2.9M
- CA$2.1M
- MA$1.8M
- NY$1.5M
- DC$544k
John E. SununuREP$5.7M raised
Spent $3.9MCash on hand $1.7M11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$950k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$224k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$150k
- Legal & Professional Services$139k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$73k
States
- NH$718k
- FL$293k
- VA$235k
- TX$227k
- CA$123k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D≈ D 60%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
After Blue Tsunami, Progressives Don't Trust Schumer and Jeffries to Lead Congress
After a Democratic "tsunami" in this week's midterm elections that has been widely seen as "a mandate to deliver big change," progressives within and beyond Congress have cast doubt on whether the New York Democrats likely to lead both chambers are actually u…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
Why Diverse Leadership Makes America Strong
November’s historic barrier-breakers didn’t win because identity replaced qualifications; they won because voters believed they could deliver. But the real lesson of this election goes beyond proving diversity isn’t the enemy of merit. When our leaders reflec…
The Root · November 5, 2026
Well Done, America
Well that was a night. The glad spectacle of a newly sentient America tottering back to its capacious ideals was dubbed Orange Crush, Bluenami, a political earthquake, a wily tweak to Hegseth's coveted public execution and "one of the great acts of defiance i…
Common Dreams · November 5, 2026
New Mexico's Deb Haaland on making history as first Native American woman elected governor
The election led to several historic firsts. In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas became the first openly gay man to be elected to the Senate. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the first Black woman governor. And in New Mexico, Deb Haaland will make history …
Biztoc.com · November 5, 2026
New Mexico's Deb Haaland on making history as first Native American woman elected governor
The election led to several historic firsts. In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas became the first openly gay man to be elected to the Senate. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the first Black woman governor. And in New Mexico, Deb Haaland will make history …
PBS · November 4, 2026
Democrat Chris Pappas makes US history as he becomes first out gay male senator
The 46-year-old Democrat is projected to defeat former senator John E. Sununu in New Hampshire’s open Senate race. The post Democrat Chris Pappas makes US history as he becomes first out gay male senator appeared first on PinkNews | Latest lesbian, gay, bi an…
Thepinknews.com · November 4, 2026
Representative Chris Pappas Will Become the Senate’s First Openly Gay Male Senator - The New York Times
Representative Chris Pappas Will Become the Senate’s First Openly Gay Male SenatorThe New York Times New Hampshire U.S. Senate Election 2026 Live Results: Chris Pappas WinsNBC News Chris Pappas defeats John E. Sununu to keep New Hampshire US Senate seat in De…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas First Gay Man Elected To U.S. Senate
New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas has become the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate. It comes after the Democrat defeated Republican John E. Sununu, who represented New ... The post New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas First Gay Man Electe…
Starobserver.com.au · November 4, 2026