FTI Consulting
Graded against the actual result across 19 races (from 43 polls, through 2012).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 19 races FTI Consulting actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| FTI Consulting | 3.66 | 100% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 1.99 | 95% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (19)
Each race FTI Consulting polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 US President | D+7.0 | D+3.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2008 CO President | D+4.0 | D+9.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2008 FL President | D+1.0 | D+2.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2008 MI President | D+8.0 | D+16.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2008 MN President | D+10.0 | D+10.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2008 NC President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 NH President | D+1.0 | D+9.6 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2008 NM President | D+7.0 | D+15.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2008 OH President | D+7.0 | D+4.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2008 PA President | D+10.0 | D+10.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2008 US President | D+5.0 | D+7.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2008 VA President | D+4.0 | D+6.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2008 WI President | D+13.0 | D+13.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2008 CO Senate | D+15.0 | D+10.3 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 MI Senate | D+34.0 | D+28.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2008 MN Senate | D+1.0 | EVEN | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2008 NC Senate | D+2.0 | D+8.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2008 NH Senate | D+9.0 | D+6.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 VA Senate | D+29.0 | D+31.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 16 | 2.18 | -2.88 | 100% |
| 3–6 wk | 8 | 2.05 | -3.65 | 100% |
| 6–9 wk | 17 | 6.44 | +0.30 | 71% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.