Democratic
Angie Nixon
Major-party general-election nominee.
Nominee changed — Nixon won the primary
Every poll on file for this seat asks about Alexander Vindman, but he lost the August 18 Democratic primary to state Rep. Angie Nixon, who outspent him by a factor of sixteen in reverse — Vindman raised over $16 million to Nixon's under $1 million — and still lost by double digits. Democrats have a nominee and it is not the one the polls name, so the stored win probability describes a Vindman-vs-Moody matchup that will never be on a ballot. The forecast returns as soon as a pollster asks about Nixon vs Ashley Moody.
No forecast is published for this race. Angie Nixon is the Democratic nominee; the forecast returns once a pollster asks about the new matchup.
Republican
Ashley Moody
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Polls
No verified 2026 general-election poll is currently available in the feed for this race.
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Lean R
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Likely R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Solid R
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Lean R
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Safe R
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Likely R
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Likely R
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Florida we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
If the Democrats Win These Three Senate Seats, an Earthquake Happened
If I said to you, “Quick, name three states with competitive Senate races,” I’m guessing you’d probably say Texas, Michigan, and Maine. Those are the three that get the most consistent media attention. Then, under those three, there are a number of races in r…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Ashley Moody Sounds Alarm as Second Poll Shows Dead Heat With Angie Nixon
Florida Republican Senator Ashley Moody’s campaign team on Friday sent a “special election alert” email to supporters, warning her election battle with Democrat Angie Nixon is now a “dead heat,” according to two recent opinion polls. If Nixon, currently a Flo…
Biztoc.com · September 20, 2026
Lingering feuds threaten Democrats' bid to reclaim Congress
By Nolan D. McCaskill WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Democrats are seeking to reclaim Congress, but lingering divisions from a bruising run-up to the November election threaten to imperil the party's attempt to claw back power from President Donald Trump's R…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 19, 2026
SHOCK POLL: Democrat Angie Nixon TIED With Republican Ashley Moody in Florida Senate Race
There are a lot of headlines that declare a "SHOCK POLL," but the latest survey on the Florida Senate race has truly earned the title. The post SHOCK POLL: Democrat Angie Nixon TIED With Republican Ashley Moody in Florida Senate Race first appeared on Mediait…
Mediaite · September 18, 2026
Moody and Nixon Tied in Florida’s Senate Race
A new Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls poll in Florida finds Ashley Moody (R) and Angie Nixon (D) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 45%. Florida Senate Race Ashley Moody (R) 45% Angie Nixon (D) 45% Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls poll · likely voters · …
Politicalwire.com · September 18, 2026