Democratic
Angie Nixon
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Ashley Moody favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+8.0
99%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 8 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Ashley Moody
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-10-07 | R+2.0 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-10-04 | R+12.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-09-27 | R+1.0 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2026-09-21 | R+11.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-21 | R+7.5 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-09-17 | R+0.4 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-10 | R+7.4 |
| Change Research | 2026-09-09 | EVEN |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
as of Oct 6, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R
as of Oct 13, 2026
Econ
Likely R
as of Oct 12, 2026
FPO
Likely R
as of Oct 13, 2026
Fox
Solid R
as of Oct 13, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Oct 1, 2026
RCP
Lean R
as of Oct 12, 2026
Sabato
Safe R
as of Oct 6, 2026
Silver
Likely R
as of Oct 13, 2026
ST
Likely R
as of Oct 7, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Florida we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Angie Nixon: My Republican Opponent Sen. Moody Should Be 'Locked Up'
Wednesday on CNN’s “The Arena,” Florida Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon said her Republican opponent, Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL), should be “locked up and punished in jail for what she has done.” Nixon said, “The fact remains that Ashley Moody The post …
Breitbart News · Yesterday
As Progressives Prosper, Centrist Democrats Are Moving the Goalposts
Center-left Democrats used to claim that progressives couldn’t win in swing states and districts. Now, with numerous candidates aligned with Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ahead in the polls, most notably Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed, centrists are …
The New Republic · Yesterday
Florida Democratic Senate Candidate Honors Cop Killers, Says History Is ‘Messy’
Why does Florida Senate nominee Angie Nixon honor cop killers like Assata Shakur? History is "messy," she says. The post Florida Democratic Senate Candidate Honors Cop Killers, Says History Is ‘Messy’ first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Legalinsurrection.com · October 13, 2026
Will Republicans or Democrats win the Senate? These key midterm races will decide.
Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs in November's election. But as important as the House of Representatives is, all signs point to the true drama of the midterms being in the battle for the Senate. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot thi…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 13, 2026
Angie Nixon fires back at Laura Loomer over drag queen outrage: ‘Jiggy Jig Saw’
Angie Nixon, the Democratic candidate in Florida’s U.S. Senate Race, won’t apologize for sharing the dance floor with drag queens at a recent fundraiser.
Advocate.com · October 13, 2026
Poll: Donalds, Moody Hold Double-Digit Leads in Florida Races
Republican candidates Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody each hold an 11-point lead in Florida’s races for governor and U.S. Senate, according to a Stetson University poll released Tuesday. The post Poll: Donalds, Moody Hold Double-Digit Leads in Florida Races ap…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Can This Florida Dem Pull Off One More Big Surprise?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonAngie Nixon has defied expectations before. In the Democratic primary for Florida’…
The New Republic · October 13, 2026
GOP candidates privately point fingers at Trump as his super PAC cuts losing races loose
President Donald Trump’s top super PAC is pulling money out of House races Republicans are increasingly likely to lose, and many GOP candidates privately blame the president for the worsening political landscape.MAGA Inc., which still has hundreds of millions…
Raw Story · October 12, 2026