Democratic
Alexander Vindman
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Florida U.S. Senate election, 2026
Alexander Vindman vs. Ashley Moody. Special election.
VotePredictor forecast
Ashley Moody favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+11.4
87%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 12 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Ashley Moody
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida | 2026-07-17 | R+10.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-06-14 | R+3.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2026-06-07 | R+7.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-05-21 | R+3.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-05-16 | D+2.0 |
| Cherry Communications | 2026-05-09 | R+8.0 |
| Stetson University | 2026-04-13 | R+7.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | R+7.0 |
| MDW Communications | 2026-04-03 | R+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-04-03 | R+3.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-31 | R+7.9 |
| University of North Florida | 2026-03-02 | R+7.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
IE
Solid R
Sabato
Likely R
WH
Lean R
Econ
Lean R
RCP
Likely R
DDHQ
Likely R
Fox
Solid R
VoteHub
Lean R
FPO
Likely R
ST
Likely R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
Opinion - Why a Trump enemy could win a solid Republican Florida Senate seat
In Florida's upcoming Senate race, Democrat Alexander Vindman is challenging Trump-loyal incumbent Ashley Moody, with recent polls showing a competitive race...
The Hill · May 29, 2026
Trump Impeacher Alex Vindman Urges ‘Lower the Temperature’ After WHCD Shooting Despite Comparing MAGA to Nazis
Alexander Vindman, who is running against incumbent Ashley Moody (R-FL) for Senate, urged a reduction in political tensions following a shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner despite a record of past social media posts attacking President Trump, R…
Breitbart News · April 29, 2026
Conniving Effort – Alexander Vindman Launches Democrat Senate Campaign in Florida
This is infuriating, and entirely due to something else in the background {GO DEEP}. Former National Security Council member (Russia/EurAsia desk) Alexander Vindman is running for a Florida senate seat against Republican Ashley Moody. First, Alexander Vindman…
Freerepublic.com · January 30, 2026
Trump impeachment whistleblower Vindman launches Democratic Senate run in Florida
Alexander Vindman, who testified in Trump's first impeachment, launches Democratic Senate campaign in Florida to challenge GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in 2026 race.
Fox News · January 27, 2026
Trump impeachment star witness kicks off campaign for Florida Senate
Alexander Vindman is an underdog attempting to dispatch GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, who took Secretary of State Marco Rubio's old seat earlier this year.
New York Post · January 27, 2026
Bill to Curb Staged Accidents Introduced in Senate
The industry trades have come out to support the latest effort on Capitol Hill to thwart staged accidents. Sen. Ashley Moody on July 22 introduced the Staged Accident Fraud Prevention Act. About a year ago, Representatives Mike Collins and Brandon …
Insurance Journal · July 27, 2026
'Needs to be immediately fired': DHS lawyers' wild online behavior stuns legal expert
A legal expert sounded the alarm on a lawyer for the Department of Homeland Security who's been attacking federal judges.During an episode of The Intersection, Michael Popok called out the DHS general counsel, James Percival, and called for his immediate remo…
Raw Story · July 25, 2026
Florida AG intervened in developer disputes after raking in donations
Florida’s attorney general is giving at least two South Florida developers caught in legal battles a helping hand after they gave him thousands of dollars in campaign donations. James Uthmeier’s office intervened in cases involving Two Roads Development and W…
The Real Deal · July 8, 2026