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Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody: Florida U.S. Senate election, 2026

Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody. Special election.

VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Ashley Moody favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+8.9
predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 14 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Angie Nixon

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

14 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.
RedBox Research10-31R+2.0R+2.7
ActiVote10-27R+6.0R+8.6
Echelon Insights10-23R+8.0R+8.0
co/efficient10-20R+8.0R+4.5
University of North Florida10-19R+4.0R+7.8
MDW10-10R+6.0R+6.7
St. Pete PollsGrade C+10-07R+2.0R+2.3
Targoz Market Research10-04R+12.0R+16.3
Change ResearchGrade B-09-27R+1.0R+4.5
InsiderAdvantageGrade C09-21R+7.5R+7.1
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research09-21R+11.0R+14.9
St. Pete PollsGrade C+09-17R+0.4R+0.7
Quantus Insights09-10R+7.4R+5.7
Change ResearchGrade B-09-09EVENR+3.5

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Ashley MoodyREP · incumbent$14.5M raised
Spent $13.7MCash on hand $816k14% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. ASHLEY MOODY VICTORY FUND$4.2M
  2. ONE TEAM SENATE MAJORITY$208k
  3. SECURE THE US SENATE 2026$171k
  4. GOP WINNING WOMEN 2026$143k
  5. FRIENDS OF KENNEDY$90k

Industries

  1. Retired$1.6M
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$315k
  3. Not Reported$297k
  4. Self-Employed & Freelance$260k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$197k

States

  1. FL$2.1M
  2. VA$316k
  3. CA$263k
  4. TX$230k
  5. NY$223k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Angie NixonDEM$11.3M raised
Spent $8.1MCash on hand $3.3M62% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. PICKUP, DONNA$11k
  2. RATHORE, MOBEEN$10k
  3. WOLF, STEPEN$10k
  4. STOKES, AUTUMN$8k
  5. DEICHERT, MAGGIE$8k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.2M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$333k
  3. Retired$156k
  4. Education & Academia$47k
  5. Technology & Communications$47k

States

  1. FL$1.6M
  2. CA$280k
  3. NY$174k
  4. MA$89k
  5. TX$81k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗
R 95%R+7.0
as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Florida we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Rick Scott(R)R+12.8
2022Marco Rubio(R)R+16.4
2018Rick Scott(R)R+0.1
2016Marco Rubio(R)R+7.7
2012Bill Nelson(D)D+13.0
2010Marco Rubio(R)R+28.7
2006Bill Nelson(D)D+22.2
2004Mel Martinez(R)R+1.1
2000Bill Nelson(D)D+4.8
1998Bob Graham(D)D+24.9

Candidate news

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The New Republic · Yesterday
The Midterms Weren’t Red vs. Blue, They Were Bought vs. Not Bought

This week, voters in red and purple states sent Democrats to the Senate who ran against corporate money. James Talarico won in Texas. Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Adam Hamilton won in Kansas. All three took $0 in corporate PAC money.More than 16 years…

Common Dreams · Yesterday
OK, But Can We Talk About Florida?

Everyone fire Lis Smith and hire Angie Nixon to run your campaigns, post haste!

Wonkette.com · November 5, 2026
‘I Can’t Stand it!’ James Carville Clashes With Gen Z Activist Who Thinks Angie Nixon Was Good Candidate

James Carville tried imparting his famous "winning is everything" wisdom on a Gen Z Democrat defending Angie Nixon after she lost her Senate race in Florida. The post ‘I Can’t Stand it!’ James Carville Clashes With Gen Z Activist Who Thinks Angie Nixon Was Go…

Mediaite · November 5, 2026
One Big Lesson for 2028

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington “As other states shift left in a brutal cycle, Florida does what we do best—we he…

The New Republic · November 5, 2026
How Florida Avoided the Blue Wave

Florida elected its first Black Republican governor, Byron Donalds, who is taking the helm after eight years under Ron DeSantis. Sen. Ashley Moody also held her seat against Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon, who faced scrutiny for hedging on whether Cuba is a…

Fox News · November 5, 2026
From Maine to Michigan to Texas, 'Rise of Real Economic Populism' Trounces Right-Wing Billionaire Cash

It wasn't just a Democratic tsunami that swept the United States in Tuesday's midterm elections—it was also an "economic populist wave" that drowned out billionaire cash.In states across the country, voters propelled to victory candidates who explicitly cast …

Common Dreams · November 4, 2026
Viral Moments You Missed From Election Night 2026

After a campaign season filled with drama, determination, and a few last-minute surprises, the 2026 midterms are finally behind us. And as the country wakes up from one of the most exciting election nights in recent political history, we’re still trying to pr…

The Root · November 4, 2026