Democratic
Jon Ossoff
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
← all Senate races
Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins: Georgia U.S. Senate election, 2026
Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Jon Ossoff favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+8.9
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 13 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Mike Collins
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
19 polls · 13 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jon OssoffDEM · incumbent$137M raised
Spent $126MCash on hand $15.1M49% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$32.5M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3.9M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$715k
- Education & Academia$705k
- Legal & Professional Services$590k
States
- CA$8.4M
- GA$7.9M
- NY$3.9M
- MA$2.5M
- FL$2.1M
Mike CollinsREP$10.7M raised
Spent $10.2MCash on hand $1.1M29% from donors under $200Self-funded $65k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1.4M
- Not Reported$397k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$340k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$121k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$93k
States
- GA$1.9M
- TX$304k
- FL$288k
- CA$177k
- NY$74k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Georgia we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
The Midterms Weren’t Red vs. Blue, They Were Bought vs. Not Bought
This week, voters in red and purple states sent Democrats to the Senate who ran against corporate money. James Talarico won in Texas. Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Adam Hamilton won in Kansas. All three took $0 in corporate PAC money.More than 16 years…
Common Dreams · Today
If Democrats Can Tell the Right Story, They’ll Keep Winning
Well before the final tally of the 2026 midterms had been registered, begun, the Narrative War had. As far as the White House was concerned, Tuesday wasn’t a verdict on President Trump. It was a brief, almost spasmodic reaction by voters to an uptick in gas p…
The New Republic · Today
Trump’s Vaunted Multiracial Coalition Is Dead
After Donald Trump’s victory in 2024, one narrative in particular was pervasive throughout the pundit class: Democrats were declining among voters of color. The Republicans were becoming a more multiracial party, many political experts claimed, and it had bee…
The New Republic · Today
Democrats will unleash a wave of subpoenas against Trump and his allies on DAY ONE of their new majority, White House correspondent JON MICHAEL RAASCH claims on latest Deep Dive podcast
Elsewhere in the podcast, Raasch tipped Georgia senator Jon Ossoff, who comfortably won re-election on Tuesday, as the Democrat to watch in the 2028 presidential race.
Dailymail.com · Today
Millennial Candidates Helped Democrats Win the Senate, and Rob Sand Broke the GOP’s Hold on Iowa
Georgia reelected Jon Ossoff, 39, and Michigan elected Abdul El-Sayed, 42, as Democrats took back the Senate in the 2026 midterms. In Iowa, Rob Sand, 44, won the governor’s race, becoming the…
Thoughtcatalog.com · Yesterday
Trump’s Midterms Spiral Was Months in the Making
Donald Trump really didn’t care about the midterms. Then he panicked.The president’s mood and regard for the consequential elections fluctuated rapidly in the months preceding them, according to a senior administration official that spoke with The Wall Street…
The New Republic · Yesterday
GOP senator rips his own party for ‘suicidal’ moves that sealed midterm ‘beat-down’
A Republican senator ousted by President Donald Trump's pick tore into his own party in a scathing postmortem of this week's midterms.Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published Wednesday that the GOP's Election Day "beat-down wasn'…
Raw Story · November 4, 2026
GOP officials describe 'reckoning' to come after party's midterm losses
President Donald Trump's allies on Wednesday tiptoed their way toward once unthinkable territory: blaming the president.The unusual candor followed sweeping GOP defeats across the country, a repudiation of the president that matched some of the party's worst …
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026