New Hampshire District 1 election, 2026

Stefany Shaheen vs. Anthony DiLorenzo. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast

Stefany Shaheen favored

Likely D · predicted margin D+8.3

94%

chance to win

2024 presidential margin

D+2.0

2026 national environment

D+8.0

District polls

3, averaging D+7.0

Forecast spread

±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+9.7.

Democratic

Stefany Shaheen

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Anthony DiLorenzo

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin

University of New HampshireGrade B10-31D+13.0

Saint Anselm10-20D+4.0

University of New HampshireGrade B09-21D+4.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026

Anthony DiLorenzoREP$6.8M raised

Spent $5.8MCash on hand $984kDebts $5.5M2% from donors under $200Self-funded $5.5M

Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

DILORENZO, ANTHONY$900k
DILORENZO, ANTHONY$850k
GROW THE MAJORITY$120k
KAGELEIRY, CHAD$14k
ANTHONY DILORENZO FOR CONGRESS-GTM NOMINEE FUND: NH-01$12k

Industries

Retired$117k
Self-Employed & Freelance$44k
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
Not Reported$23k
Legal & Professional Services$13k

States

NH$583k
MA$104k
FL$13k
ME$12k
TX$12k

Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

Stefany ShaheenDEM$3.2M raised

Spent $3.0MCash on hand $271k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $57k

Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

Industries

Unemployed$719k
Self-Employed & Freelance$198k
Legal & Professional Services$91k
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$89k
Government Relations and Lobbying Services$46k

States

NH$801k
MA$341k
CA$141k
DC$121k
MD$88k

Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NH-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New Hampshire's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Chris Pappas(D)D+8.1

2022Chris Pappas(D)D+8.1

2020Chris Pappas(D)D+5.1

2018Chris Pappas(D)D+8.6

2016Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+1.3

2014Frank C. Guinta(R)R+3.6

2012Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+3.8

2010Frank C. Guinta(R)R+11.6

2008Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+5.9

2006Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+2.6

2004Jeb E. Bradley(R)R+26.8