New Hampshire District 1 election, 2026

Stefany Shaheen vs. Anthony DiLorenzo.

VotePredictor forecast

Stefany Shaheen favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+16.5

99%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+3.0

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Stefany Shaheen

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Anthony DiLorenzo

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NH-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NH-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New Hampshire's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Chris Pappas(D)D+8.0

2022Chris Pappas(D)D+8.1

2020Chris Pappas(D)D+5.1

2018Chris Pappas(D)D+8.6

2016Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+1.3

2014Frank C. Guinta(R)R+3.6

2012Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+3.8

2010Frank C. Guinta(R)R+11.6

2008Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+5.9

2006Carol Shea-Porter(D)D+2.6

2004Jeb E. Bradley(R)R+26.8