Angus Reid Global
Graded against the actual result across 21 races (from 40 polls, through 2024).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 21 races Angus Reid Global actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Angus Reid Global | 3.43 | 91% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 2.43 | 100% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (21)
Each race Angus Reid Global polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 US President | D+2.0 | R+1.5 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 2020 US President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016 US President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2012 WI Governor | R+5.0 | R+6.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2012 FL President | EVEN | D+0.9 | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 2012 MI President | D+5.0 | D+9.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2012 OH President | D+3.0 | D+3.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2012 PA President | D+4.0 | D+5.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2012 US President | D+3.0 | D+3.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2012 WI President | D+7.0 | D+6.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2012 FL Senate | D+8.0 | D+13.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2012 MI Senate | D+13.0 | D+20.8 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2012 OH Senate | D+6.0 | D+6.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2012 PA Senate | D+7.0 | D+9.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2012 WI Senate | D+2.0 | D+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 CA Governor | D+5.0 | D+12.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 NY Governor | D+17.0 | D+27.7 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 OH Governor | R+3.0 | R+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 CA Senate | D+7.0 | D+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 NY Senate | D+26.0 | D+38.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 OH Senate | R+17.0 | R+17.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1 wk | 20 | 3.77 | -0.51 | 95% |
| 1–3 wk | 12 | 2.61 | -2.46 | 75% |
| 3–6 wk | 7 | 3.52 | -2.22 | 86% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 13 | 5.1 | R+2.0 |
| 2012 | 24 | 2.4 | R+1.8 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.