Democratic
Cinde Warmington
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
New Hampshire governor election, 2026
Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Kelly Ayotte favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+18.4
99%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 9 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Kelly Ayotte
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Jon Kiper · Community First
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 2026-09-11 | R+21.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-24 | R+10.0 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2026-08-18 | R+11.0 |
| Saint Anselm | 2026-06-25 | R+8.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-23 | R+5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-21 | R+8.0 |
| Saint Anselm | 2026-03-18 | R+14.0 |
| yes. every kid. | 2026-01-29 | R+10.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-01-19 | R+11.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Likely R
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Likely R
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Safe R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every New Hampshire election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Ex-Dem lobbyist for company that promoted addictive opioid clears key gubernatorial hurdle
Cinde Warmington faces renewed attacks over her Purdue Pharma legal work as she secures the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire governor.
Fox News · September 9, 2026
Incumbent GOP governor rolls to primary victory after keeping Trump at a distance
Kelly Ayotte cruised past Republican primary challengers, setting up a high-stakes New Hampshire governor's race against Democrat Cinde Warmington.
Fox News · September 9, 2026
GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Cinde Warmington to face off for New Hampshire governorship
New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, will face off against Democrat Cinde Warmington in November’s general election, NBC News projects, as the incumbent seeks another two-year term.
NBC News · September 9, 2026
After decade of GOP control, Democrats recruit challenger in key swing state
Democrat Cinde Warmington launches gubernatorial campaign against Gov. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, targeting affordability and Trump policies.
Fox News · February 18, 2026
New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challenger - Politico
New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challengerPolitico News 9 Exclusive: Democrat Cinde Warmington running for New Hampshire governorWMUR Cinde Warmington launches second Democratic bid for N.H. governorThe Boston Globe Warmington laun…
Slashdot.org · February 18, 2026
NH schools cash in as Mark Martin, Gov. Kelly Ayotte race in NASCAR simulator
Call it even with an asterisk. With his victory over Gov. Kelly Ayotte in a simulated stock car clash at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, NASCAR Hall of Fame driver Mark Martin pulled out his second victory in the Granite State. Believe it or not, Martin has now…
The Union Leader · August 23, 2026
Comments - Who is Kelly Ayotte, Governor of New Hampshire? She made millions serving on the Boards of Blackstone, Caterpillar, Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp, Boston Properties, Blink Health
Blackstone has a notorious reputation as a company that evaluates employees solely on their ability to make money, regardless of the methods used. Rather than fostering growth and generating profits for the companies they invest in, they tend to strip them o…
Substack.com · August 12, 2026
'You can't fight it': Trump defends data centers, signs up 23 governors to shield Americans from price hikes
President Donald Trump is bullish on American technology and keen to see America dominate the "global race for AI." He has, accordingly, become a champion of artificial intelligence data centers and has even tasked his administration with using federally owne…
TheBlaze · July 24, 2026