Democratic
Cinde Warmington
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
New Hampshire governor election, 2026
Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte. Incumbent running.
VotePredictor forecast
Kelly Ayotte favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+13.1
87%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 6 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Kelly Ayotte
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Jon Kiper · Community First
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | 2026-06-25 | R+8.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-23 | R+5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-21 | R+8.0 |
| Saint Anselm | 2026-03-18 | R+14.0 |
| yes. every kid. | 2026-01-29 | R+10.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-01-19 | R+11.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely R
IE
Solid R
Sabato
Likely R
WH
Lean R
RCP
Lean R
Fox
Likely R
VoteHub
Likely R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
After decade of GOP control, Democrats recruit challenger in key swing state
Democrat Cinde Warmington launches gubernatorial campaign against Gov. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, targeting affordability and Trump policies.
Fox News · February 18, 2026
New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challenger - Politico
New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challengerPolitico News 9 Exclusive: Democrat Cinde Warmington running for New Hampshire governorWMUR Cinde Warmington launches second Democratic bid for N.H. governorThe Boston Globe Warmington laun…
Slashdot.org · February 18, 2026
N.H. Candidate for governor’s latest TV ad: ‘I grew up on shaky ground’
Cinde Warmington is so far the only New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate to buy ad time from WMUR this cycle
The Boston Globe · June 10, 2024
New Hampshire Contender Got Big Donations From Pain Clinic At Heart Of State’s Opioid Crisis
But Cinde Warmington said her work on the New Hampshire Executive Council, where she is the sole Democrat, speaks for itself.
HuffPost · December 1, 2023
New Hampshire candidate's ties to oxy manfacturer 'death knell in a general election'
Cinde Warmington, a Democrat running for governor of New Hampshire next year, has sought to prioritize fighting the opioid epidemic. In one ad, she promises to “finally tackle the mental health crisis and fentanyl crisis in a real way, so that families can ge…
Raw Story · July 4, 2023
'You can't fight it': Trump defends data centers, signs up 23 governors to shield Americans from price hikes
President Donald Trump is bullish on American technology and keen to see America dominate the "global race for AI." He has, accordingly, become a champion of artificial intelligence data centers and has even tasked his administration with using federally owne…
TheBlaze · July 24, 2026
New Hampshire Gov. signs law requiring schools to out trans students
New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte has signed legislation requiring public school employees to disclose information about transgender students to their parents or legal guardians, reversing a 2024 state Supreme Court ruling that upheld students’ privacy rights i…
Thepinknews.com · July 9, 2026
Before the Boston Tea Party, there were New Hampshire's Pine Tree Riots
Gov. Kelly Ayotte says the Pine Tree Riot in New Hampshire predated the Boston Tea Party and may have inspired the famous colonial protest.
Fox News · July 5, 2026