Democratic
Cinde Warmington
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte: New Hampshire governor election, 2026
Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Kelly Ayotte favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+10.8
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 12 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Kelly Ayotte
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Stephen Villee · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
20 polls · 12 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every New Hampshire election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte Wins Reelection Bid
New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) has successfully defended her seat from Democrat Cinde Warmington. The post Republican New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte Wins Reelection Bid appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Kelly Ayotte Wins Second Term Two Years After Kamala Harris Carried New Hampshire
Republican New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte beat Democrat Cinde Warmington on Tuesday to win a second term, keeping the governor’s office in GOP hands.
The Daily Caller · November 4, 2026
GOP governor defies Dem enthusiasm, tough political climate to win re-election in key swing state
Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte defeated Cinde Warmington to win a second term as New Hampshire governor despite a rough political climate for the GOP.
Fox News · November 4, 2026
Ex-Dem lobbyist for company that promoted addictive opioid clears key gubernatorial hurdle
Cinde Warmington faces renewed attacks over her Purdue Pharma legal work as she secures the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire governor.
Fox News · September 9, 2026
Incumbent GOP governor rolls to primary victory after keeping Trump at a distance
Kelly Ayotte cruised past Republican primary challengers, setting up a high-stakes New Hampshire governor's race against Democrat Cinde Warmington.
Fox News · September 9, 2026
Democrats take full control of Arizona government for 1st time in 60 years
PHOENIX (AP) — Democrats in Arizona won control of both legislative chambers and retained the governor's office, giving the party its first trifecta in the state since 1966 as Democrats made major gains nationwide in this week's elections and took control of …
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Rare midterms glimmer of hope for GOP as Republican candidate holds onto governorship in New England state
Kelly Ayotte defied Democratic momentum to secure a second term.
Dailymail.com · November 4, 2026
Legendary polling analyst reveals staggering number as midterm results roll in
Election forecaster Nate Silver says Democrats are on pace to emerge from Tuesday’s midterms holding governorships across most of the electoral map.“If the remaining results go as expected, Democrats will hold governorships in states totaling 392 electoral vo…
Raw Story · November 4, 2026