Elway Research
Graded against the actual result across 26 races (from 37 polls, through 2022).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 21 races Elway Research actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Elway Research | 3.97 | 91% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 2.17 | 95% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (26)
Each race Elway Research polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 WA Senate | D+13.0 | D+14.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018 WA-8 House | R+10.0 | D+4.8 | 14.8 | ✗ |
| 2018 WA Senate | D+14.0 | D+16.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2016 WA Governor | D+12.0 | D+8.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2016 WA President | D+17.0 | D+15.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016 WA Senate | D+24.0 | D+18.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2014 OR Governor | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014 OR Senate | D+19.0 | D+18.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2012 WA Governor | R+2.0 | D+3.1 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 2012 OR President | D+6.0 | D+12.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2012 WA President | D+17.0 | D+14.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 OR Governor | D+1.0 | D+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 OR-1 House | D+13.0 | D+12.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 OR-5 House | D+12.0 | D+5.3 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 WA Senate | D+15.0 | D+4.7 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 2008 WA Governor | D+12.0 | D+6.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2008 WA President | D+19.0 | D+17.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2006 WA Senate | D+18.0 | D+16.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2004 WA Governor | D+7.0 | EVEN | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 2004 WA President | D+6.0 | D+7.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2004 WA Senate | D+17.0 | D+12.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2003 CA Governor | R+8.0 | R+17.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2000 WA Governor | D+25.0 | D+18.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2000 WA President | D+9.0 | D+5.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2000 WA Senate | R+3.0 | D+0.1 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 1998 WA Senate | D+7.0 | D+16.8 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 19 | 3.40 | -1.67 | 90% |
| 3–6 wk | 4 | 9.45 | +3.71 | 75% |
| 6–9 wk | 13 | 4.24 | -1.91 | 92% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 6 | 3.8 | D+2.4 |
| 2004 | 6 | 6.4 | D+6.0 |
| 2008 | 4 | 4.5 | R+0.8 |
| 2010 | 5 | 4.4 | D+4.2 |
| 2012 | 4 | 3.3 | R+2.3 |
| 2016 | 3 | 3.5 | D+3.5 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.