Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 26 races Lucid actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what the VotePredictor model predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Lucid | 6.25 | 69% |
| VotePredictor | 2.53 | 85% |
VotePredictor aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (26)
Each race Lucid polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 NC Governor | D+7.0 | D+0.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2016 AZ President | R+1.0 | R+3.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2016 CO President | D+7.0 | D+4.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2016 FL President | D+6.0 | R+1.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2016 GA President | D+4.0 | R+5.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2016 IA President | D+4.0 | R+9.4 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 2016 IN President | R+6.0 | R+19.2 | 13.2 | ✓ |
| 2016 LA President | R+3.0 | R+19.6 | 16.6 | ✓ |
| 2016 NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016 NM President | D+8.0 | D+8.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016 NV President | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016 OH President | D+5.0 | R+8.1 | 13.1 | ✗ |
| 2016 PA President | D+9.0 | R+0.7 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2016 US President | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016 VA President | D+5.0 | D+5.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016 AZ Senate | R+12.0 | R+13.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2016 CO Senate | D+8.0 | D+5.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2016 FL Senate | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2016 GA Senate | R+10.0 | R+13.8 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016 IA Senate | R+12.0 | R+24.4 | 12.4 | ✓ |
| 2016 IN Senate | D+3.0 | R+9.7 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 2016 LA Senate | R+19.6 | R+21.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016 NC Senate | R+2.0 | R+5.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016 NV Senate | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016 OH Senate | R+14.0 | R+20.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2016 PA Senate | EVEN | R+1.4 | 1.4 | ✗ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 12 | 2.40 | -2.67 | 100% |
| 3–6 wk | 26 | 7.27 | +1.53 | 69% |
| 6–9 wk | 5 | 2.89 | -3.26 | 100% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.