Rutgers University
Graded against the actual result across 18 races (from 37 polls, through 2024).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 14 races Rutgers University actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Rutgers University | 8.34 | 86% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 5.18 | 93% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (18)
Each race Rutgers University polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 NJ President | D+17.0 | D+5.9 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 2024 NJ Senate | D+27.5 | D+9.6 | 17.9 | ✓ |
| 2021 NJ Governor | D+8.0 | D+3.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ President | D+24.0 | D+15.9 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2020 NJ Senate | D+30.0 | D+16.3 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 2018 NJ Senate | D+5.0 | D+11.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2013 NJ Governor | R+36.0 | R+22.1 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 2013 NJ Senate | D+22.0 | D+10.9 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 2012 NJ President | D+17.0 | D+17.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 NJ-3 House | D+1.0 | R+2.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2009 NJ Governor | D+3.0 | R+3.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2006 NJ Senate | D+4.0 | D+16.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 2005 NJ Governor | D+6.0 | D+10.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2004 NJ President | D+4.0 | D+6.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2002 NJ Senate | D+12.0 | D+9.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2001 NJ Governor | D+17.0 | D+14.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2000 NJ President | D+12.0 | D+15.8 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2000 NJ Senate | D+10.0 | D+3.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1 wk | 5 | 6.87 | +2.63 | 100% |
| 1–3 wk | 12 | 8.08 | +3.02 | 83% |
| 3–6 wk | 15 | 7.76 | +2.06 | 80% |
| 6–9 wk | 5 | 6.31 | +0.17 | 80% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 6 | 6.1 | D+1.2 |
| 2001 | 3 | 2.1 | D+0.2 |
| 2002 | 5 | 11.0 | R+10.1 |
| 2004 | 4 | 3.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2013 | 5 | 11.0 | D+3.9 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.