Silver Bulletin
Forecaster quality, broken out by office and by cycle. Scored on the Brier score of its final pre-election win probability (lower is better), over 40 races, 2016–2024.
Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
Apples-to-apples: on the 40 races Silver Bulletin forecast, its win-probability Brier vs VotePredictor's calibrated win-prob on those same races.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Bulletin | 0.045 | 95% |
| VotePredictor | 0.013 | 100% |
Every race (40)
Each race Silver Bulletin scored, with its final pre-election call vs who actually won, and the Brier score for that call. Click a race for its full detail.
By office
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40 | 0.045 | 95% |
Why no “time to election” curve? Unlike pollsters — where we have every poll with its field dates — our forecaster archive (JHK Forecasts) stores only each outfit's final pre-election forecast per race, not its earlier snapshots. So a lead-time breakdown genuinely isn't in the data for forecasters. Pollster pages do show it (e.g. the leaderboard).