Montana State University Billings
Graded against the actual result across 29 races (from 29 polls, through 2022).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 24 races Montana State University Billings actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | 5.62 | 79% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 3.28 | 100% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (29)
Each race Montana State University Billings polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 MT-1 House | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022 MT-2 House | R+26.0 | R+36.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT Governor | EVEN | R+12.9 | 12.9 | ✗ |
| 2020 MT-1 House | R+1.0 | R+12.8 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT President | R+7.0 | R+16.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2020 MT Senate | D+1.0 | R+10.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 2018 MT-1 House | R+3.0 | R+4.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018 MT Senate | D+9.0 | D+3.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2016 MT Governor | D+12.0 | D+3.9 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2016 MT-1 House | R+19.0 | R+15.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2016 MT President | R+16.0 | R+20.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2014 MT-1 House | R+7.0 | R+15.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2014 MT Senate | R+16.1 | R+17.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2012 MT Governor | R+2.2 | D+1.6 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2012 MT-1 House | R+13.0 | R+10.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2012 MT President | R+14.5 | R+13.7 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2012 MT Senate | R+2.9 | D+3.7 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2008 MT Governor | D+32.9 | D+33.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2008 MT-1 House | R+33.9 | R+31.7 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2008 MT President | D+4.0 | R+2.3 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 2006 MT-1 House | R+23.0 | R+19.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2006 MT Senate | D+11.0 | D+0.9 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2004 MT Governor | D+14.0 | D+4.4 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2004 MT President | R+21.0 | R+20.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2002 MT Senate | D+33.0 | D+31.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2000 MT Governor | D+3.0 | R+3.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2000 MT-1 House | R+2.0 | R+5.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2000 MT President | R+18.0 | R+25.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2000 MT Senate | D+2.0 | R+3.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 11 | 6.91 | +1.84 | 55% |
| 3–6 wk | 18 | 4.63 | -1.11 | 89% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 4 | 5.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2008 | 3 | 2.8 | D+1.3 |
| 2012 | 4 | 3.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2016 | 3 | 5.3 | D+3.1 |
| 2020 | 4 | 11.3 | D+11.3 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.