Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2017, the model called 7/8 of these races right (88%) using only pre-2017 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Senate | Gordon Douglas Jones (D) vs Roy S. Moore (R) | 36 | R+7.2 | D+1.6 | ✗ |
| South Carolina House | Archie Parnell (D) vs Ralph Norman (R) | 4 | R+18.3 | R+3.1 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Jon Ossoff (D) vs Karen Handel (R) | 14 | R+3.0 | R+3.6 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Rob Quist (D) vs Greg Gianforte (R) | 6 | R+16.7 | R+5.6 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | James A. Thompson (D) vs Ron Estes (R) | 1 | R+29.9 | R+6.2 | ✓ |
| Virginia Governor | Ralph S. Northam (D) vs Ed W. Gillespie (R) | 41 | D+0.6 | D+8.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Governor | Philip Murphy (D) vs Kimberly Ann Guadagno (R) | 17 | D+10.7 | D+14.1 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Kathie Allen (D) vs John Curtis (R) | 2 | R+39.1 | R+32.4 | ✓ |