Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado House | Michael F. Feeley (D) vs Bob Beauprez (R) | 0 | — | R+0.1 | |
| South Dakota Senate | Tim Johnson (D) vs John R. Thune (R) | 0 | — | D+0.2 | |
| Alabama Governor | Don Siegelman (D) vs Bob Riley (R) | 0 | — | R+0.2 | |
| Louisiana House | Rodney M. Alexander (D) vs Lee Fletcher (R) | 0 | — | D+0.6 | |
| Oklahoma Governor | Brad Henry (D) vs Steve Largent (R) | 0 | — | D+0.7 | |
| Utah House | Jim Matheson (D) vs John Swallow (R) | 0 | — | D+0.7 | |
| Arizona Governor | Janet Napolitano (D) vs Matt Salmon (R) | 0 | — | D+1.0 | |
| Georgia House | James Marshall (D) vs Calder B. Clay (R) | 0 | — | D+1.0 | |
| Missouri Senate | Jean Carnahan (D) vs Jim Talent (R) | 0 | — | R+1.1 | |
| Florida House | Karen L. Thurman (D) vs Virginia Brown-Waite (R) | 0 | — | R+1.7 | |
| Wyoming Governor | Dave Freudenthal (D) vs Eli D. Bebout (R) | 0 | — | D+2.0 | |
| Minnesota Senate | Walter F. Mondale (D) vs Norm Coleman (R) | 0 | — | R+2.2 | |
| Vermont Governor | Doug Racine (D) vs Jim Douglas (R) | 0 | — | R+2.5 | |
| Pennsylvania House | Dan Wofford (D) vs Jim Gerlach (R) | 0 | — | R+2.7 | |
| Pennsylvania House | Thomas Timothy Holden (D) vs George W. Gekas (R) | 0 | — | D+2.8 | |
| Oregon Governor | Ted Kulongoski (D) vs Kevin Mannix (R) | 0 | — | D+2.9 | |
| Tennessee Governor | Phil Bredesen (D) vs Van Hilleary (R) | 0 | — | D+3.0 | |
| Kentucky House | Jack Conway (D) vs Anne Meagher Northup (R) | 0 | — | R+3.2 | |
| Georgia House | Roger Kahn (D) vs Phil Gingrey (R) | 0 | — | R+3.3 | |
| Kansas House | Dennis Moore (D) vs Adam Taff (R) | 0 | — | D+3.3 | |
| Louisiana Senate | Mary L. Landrieu (D) vs Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) | 0 | — | D+3.4 | |
| Arizona House | George Cordova (D) vs Richard Renzi (R) | 0 | — | R+3.6 | |
| Kentucky House | Kenneth R. Lucas (D) vs Geoff Davis (R) | 0 | — | D+3.6 | |
| Pennsylvania House | Joe Hoeffel (D) vs Melissa Brown (R) | 0 | — | D+3.6 | |
| Wisconsin Governor | Jim Doyle (D) vs Scott McCallum (R) | 0 | — | D+3.7 | |
| Maryland Governor | Kathleen Townsend (D) vs Robert Ehrlich Jr. (R) | 0 | — | R+3.9 | |
| Maine House | Michael H. Michaud (D) vs Kevin L. Raye (R) | 0 | — | D+4.0 | |
| Michigan Governor | Jennifer Granholm (D) vs Dick Posthumus (R) | 0 | — | D+4.0 | |
| Maryland House | Chris Van Hollen (D) vs Constance A. Morella (R) | 0 | — | D+4.2 | |
| Washington House | Rick Larsen (D) vs Norma Smith (R) | 0 | — | D+4.3 | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs John E. Sununu (R) | 0 | — | R+4.4 | |
| Texas House | Thomas Edwards (D) vs Ramsey Farley (R) | 0 | — | D+4.5 | |
| Hawaii Governor | Mazie Hirono (D) vs Linda Lingle (R) | 0 | — | R+4.5 | |
| Indiana House | Jill Long Thompson (D) vs Chris Chocola (R) | 0 | — | R+4.7 | |
| North Dakota House | Earl Pomeroy (D) vs Rick Clayburgh (R) | 0 | — | D+4.8 | |
| Massachusetts Governor | Shannon O'Brien (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 0 | — | R+4.8 | |
| California Governor | Gray Davis (D) vs Bill Simon (R) | 0 | — | D+4.9 | |
| Colorado Senate | Tom Strickland (D) vs Wayne A. Allard (R) | 0 | — | R+4.9 | |
| Georgia Governor | Roy Barnes (D) vs Sonny Perdue (R) | 0 | — | R+5.2 | |
| Indiana House | Bryan Hartke (D) vs John Nathan Hostettler (R) | 0 | — | R+5.3 | |
| Maine Governor | John Baldacci (D) vs Peter Cianchette (R) | 0 | — | D+5.7 | |
| South Carolina Governor | James H. Hodges (D) vs Mark Sanford (R) | 0 | — | R+5.8 | |
| Arkansas Governor | Jimmie Lou Fisher (D) vs Mike Huckabee (R) | 0 | — | R+6.1 | |
| Georgia Senate | Max Cleland (D) vs Saxby Chambliss (R) | 0 | — | R+6.8 | |
| Illinois Governor | Rod Blagojevich (D) vs Jim Ryan (R) | 0 | — | D+7.1 | |
| Oklahoma House | Darryl Roberts (D) vs Tom Cole (R) | 0 | — | R+7.7 | |
| Kansas Governor | Kathleen Sebelius (D) vs Tim Shallenburger (R) | 0 | — | D+7.8 | |
| Arkansas Senate | Mark L. Pryor (D) vs Tim Hutchinson (R) | 0 | — | D+7.8 | |
| South Dakota House | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) vs William J. Janklow (R) | 0 | — | R+7.9 | |
| Minnesota Governor | Roger Moe (D) vs Tim Pawlenty (R) | 0 | — | R+7.9 | |
| Iowa Governor | Tom Vilsack (D) vs Doug Gross (R) | 0 | — | D+8.2 | |
| Connecticut House | Joe Courtney (D) vs Robert R. Simmons (R) | 0 | — | R+8.2 | |
| Iowa House | Leonard L. Boswell (D) vs Stanley J. Thompson (R) | 0 | — | D+8.4 | |
| Maryland House | C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) vs Helen Delich Bentley (R) | 0 | — | D+8.6 | |
| North Carolina Senate | Erskine Bowles (D) vs Elizabeth H. Dole (R) | 0 | — | R+8.6 | |
| Indiana House | Julia M. Carson (D) vs Ambrose A. McVey (R) | 0 | — | D+9.0 | |
| North Carolina House | Chris Kouri (D) vs Robert C. Hayes (R) | 0 | — | R+9.0 | |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Ed Rendell (D) vs Mike Fisher (R) | 0 | — | D+9.0 | |
| New York House | Timothy H. Bishop (D) vs Felix J. Grucci (R) | 0 | — | D+9.1 | |
| Rhode Island Governor | Myrth York (D) vs Donald Carcieri (R) | 0 | — | R+9.5 | |
| New Jersey Senate | Frank R. Lautenberg (D) vs Douglas R. Forrester (R) | 0 | — | D+9.9 | |
| Tennessee Senate | Bob Clement (D) vs Lamar Alexander (R) | 0 | — | R+9.9 | |
| South Carolina Senate | Alex Sanders (D) vs Lindsey Graham (R) | 0 | — | R+10.2 | |
| Georgia House | Charles Walker (D) vs Max Burns (R) | 0 | — | R+10.4 | |
| Iowa Senate | Tom Harkin (D) vs Greg Ganske (R) | 0 | — | D+10.4 | |
| New Mexico House | Richard M. Romero (D) vs Heather A. Wilson (R) | 0 | — | R+10.7 | |
| Connecticut House | James H. Maloney (D) vs Nancy L. Johnson (R) | 0 | — | R+11.0 | |
| Nevada House | Shelley Berkley (D) vs Lynette Maria Boggs-McDonald (R) | 0 | — | D+11.0 | |
| Texas House | Chris Bell (D) vs Thomas Reiser (R) | 0 | — | D+11.7 | |
| Iowa House | John Norris (D) vs Tom Latham (R) | 0 | — | R+11.7 | |
| Texas Senate | Ron Kirk (D) vs John Cornyn (R) | 0 | — | R+12.0 | |
| Connecticut Governor | Bill Curry (D) vs John Rowland (R) | 0 | — | R+12.2 | |
| North Carolina House | Ralph Bradley Miller (D) vs Carolyn W. Grant (R) | 0 | — | D+12.3 | |
| New Mexico House | John Arthur Smith (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 0 | — | R+12.5 | |
| Florida Governor | Bill McBride (D) vs Jeb Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+12.8 | |
| Colorado House | Stanley T. Matsunaka (D) vs Marilyn N. Musgrave (R) | 0 | — | R+13.3 | |
| Oklahoma House | Doug Dodd (D) vs John A. Sullivan (R) | 0 | — | R+13.4 | |
| New York Governor | H. Carl McCall (D) vs George Pataki (R) | 0 | — | R+13.7 | |
| Idaho Governor | Jerry Brady (D) vs C. Dirk Kempthorne (R) | 0 | — | R+14.6 | |
| South Dakota Governor | Jim Abbott (D) vs M. Michael Rounds (R) | 0 | — | R+14.8 | |
| Alaska Governor | Fran Ulmer (D) vs Frank Murkowski (R) | 0 | — | R+15.2 | |
| New Hampshire House | Katrina Swett (D) vs Charles Bass (R) | 0 | — | R+15.9 | |
| New Mexico Governor | Bill Richardson (D) vs John Sanchez (R) | 0 | — | D+16.4 | |
| Oregon Senate | Bill Bradbury (D) vs Gordon H. Smith (R) | 0 | — | R+16.6 | |
| Maine Senate | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs Susan M. Collins (R) | 0 | — | R+16.9 | |
| Ohio House | Tim Ryan (D) vs Ann Womer Benjamin (R) | 0 | — | D+17.5 | |
| Michigan House | Kevin Kelley (D) vs Thaddeus McCotter (R) | 0 | — | R+17.5 | |
| Texas Governor | Tony Sanchez (D) vs Rick Perry (R) | 0 | — | R+17.9 | |
| Texas House | Ron Chapman (D) vs Jeb Hensarling (R) | 0 | — | R+17.9 | |
| Alabama Senate | Susan Parker (D) vs Jeff Sessions (R) | 0 | — | R+18.8 | |
| Nevada House | Dario Herrera (D) vs Jon C. Porter (R) | 0 | — | R+18.8 | |
| Florida House | Wayne Hogan (D) vs John L. Mica (R) | 0 | — | R+19.2 | |
| Ohio Governor | Timothy Hagan (D) vs Bob Taft (R) | 0 | — | R+19.4 | |
| New Hampshire House | Martha Fuller Clark (D) vs Jeb E. Bradley (R) | 0 | — | R+19.6 | |
| West Virginia House | Jim Humphreys (D) vs Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 0 | — | R+20.1 | |
| New Hampshire Governor | Mark Fernald (D) vs Craig Benson (R) | 0 | — | R+20.4 | |
| Oklahoma Senate | David Walters (D) vs James M. Inhofe (R) | 0 | — | R+21.0 | |
| Arkansas House | Michael Avery Ross (D) vs Jay Woodson Dickey (R) | 0 | — | D+21.1 | |
| New Jersey House | Anne Ricks Sumers (D) vs Scott Garrett (R) | 0 | — | R+21.2 | |
| Illinois Senate | Richard J. Durbin (D) vs Jim Durkin (R) | 0 | — | D+22.3 | |
| Florida House | Carol A. Roberts (D) vs E. Clay Shaw (R) | 0 | — | R+22.4 | |
| Rhode Island House | Patrick Joseph Kennedy (D) vs David W. Rogers (R) | 0 | — | D+22.6 | |
| Michigan Senate | Carl Levin (D) vs Andrew Rocky Raczkowski (R) | 0 | — | D+22.7 | |
| Kansas House | Carlos J. Nolla (D) vs Todd Tiahrt (R) | 0 | — | R+23.6 | |
| Florida House | Harry Jacobs (D) vs Tom Feeney (R) | 0 | — | R+23.7 | |
| West Virginia Senate | John D. Rockefeller, IV (D) vs Jay Wolfe (R) | 0 | — | D+26.2 | |
| Colorado Governor | Rollie Heath (D) vs William F. Owens (R) | 0 | — | R+29.0 | |
| Kentucky Senate | Lois Combs Weinberg (D) vs Mitch McConnell (R) | 0 | — | R+29.4 | |
| New Mexico Senate | Gloria Tristani (D) vs Pete V. Domenici (R) | 0 | — | R+30.1 | |
| Florida House | Eddie Diaz (D) vs Richard Keller (R) | 0 | — | R+30.3 | |
| Nebraska House | Jim Simon (D) vs Lee Terry (R) | 0 | — | R+30.3 | |
| Montana Senate | Max Baucus (D) vs Mike Taylor (R) | 0 | — | D+31.0 | |
| Montana House | Steve Kelly (D) vs Denny Rehberg (R) | 0 | — | R+31.9 | |
| Idaho Senate | Alan Blinken (D) vs Larry E. Craig (R) | 0 | — | R+32.6 | |
| Nebraska Governor | Stormy Dean (D) vs Mike Johanns (R) | 0 | — | R+41.2 | |
| Nevada Governor | Joseph Neal (D) vs Kenny Guinn (R) | 0 | — | R+46.2 | |
| Oklahoma House | Brad R. Carson (D) vs H. Kent Pharaoh (R) | 0 | — | D+48.2 | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed (D) vs Robert G. Tingle (R) | 0 | — | D+56.9 | |
| Nebraska Senate | Charlie Matulka (D) vs Chuck Hagel (R) | 0 | — | R+68.1 | |
| Virginia Senate | Nancy B. Spannaus (D) vs John W. Warner (R) | 0 | — | D+72.8 |