Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2021, the model called 4/5 of these races right (80%) using only pre-2021 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Governor | Terry R. McAuliffe (D) vs Glenn Youngkin (R) | 33 | R+2.1 | R+1.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Governor | Philip Murphy (D) vs Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) | 11 | D+4.1 | D+3.2 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Jana Lynne Sanchez (D) vs Susan Wright (R) | 2 | R+15.7 | D+6.6 | ✗ |
| Ohio House | Allison Russo (D) vs Mike Carey (R) | 1 | R+17.8 | R+16.6 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) vs Mark David Moores (R) | 1 | D+10.9 | D+24.7 | ✓ |