Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2012, the model called 165/189 of these races right (87%) using only pre-2012 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 176 | D+2.2 | D+3.9 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Mike McIntyre (D) vs David Rouzer (R) | 1 | R+5.9 | D+0.2 | ✗ |
| Utah House | Jim Matheson (D) vs Mia B. Love (R) | 5 | R+7.5 | D+0.3 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | David M. Gill (D) vs Rodney Davis (R) | 5 | R+0.3 | R+0.3 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Gary McDowell (D) vs Dan Benishek (R) | 3 | D+0.9 | R+0.5 | ✗ |
| Florida House | Patrick Murphy (D) vs Allen West (R) | 9 | R+3.9 | D+0.6 | ✗ |
| New York House | Julian Schreibman (D) vs Christopher P. Gibson (R) | 6 | R+9.3 | R+0.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Ron Barber (D) vs Martha McSally (R) | 2 | D+4.1 | D+0.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | Kathy C. Hochul (D) vs Chris Collins (R) | 3 | R+3.3 | D+0.8 | ✗ |
| Florida President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 66 | R+0.5 | D+0.9 | ✗ |
| North Dakota Senate | Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs Rick Berg (R) | 6 | R+3.1 | D+0.9 | ✗ |
| New York House | Nathan I. Shinagawa (D) vs Thomas Reed (R) | 1 | R+5.9 | R+1.1 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts House | John F. Tierney (D) vs Richard R. Tisei (R) | 3 | R+3.5 | D+1.1 | ✗ |
| Nevada Senate | Shelley Berkley (D) vs Dean Heller (R) | 23 | R+4.4 | R+1.2 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Jim Graves (D) vs Michele Bachmann (R) | 3 | R+7.5 | R+1.2 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Brad Schneider (D) vs Robert Dold (R) | 5 | R+5.9 | D+1.3 | ✗ |
| New York House | Mark S. Murphy (D) vs Michael G. Grimm (R) | 2 | R+17.1 | R+1.5 | ✓ |
| Montana Governor | Steve Bullock (D) vs Richard A. Hill (R) | 7 | R+0.4 | D+1.6 | ✗ |
| Nebraska House | John W. Ewing (D) vs Lee Terry (R) | 4 | R+11.0 | R+1.6 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Joe Miklosi (D) vs Mike Coffman (R) | 1 | R+5.0 | R+2.0 | ✓ |
| North Carolina President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 32 | R+2.3 | R+2.0 | ✓ |
| California House | Scott Peters (D) vs Brian P. Bilbray (R) | 5 | R+3.7 | D+2.4 | ✗ |
| Indiana Governor | John R. Gregg (D) vs Mike Pence (R) | 9 | R+12.4 | R+2.9 | ✓ |
| Ohio President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 82 | D+3.6 | D+3.0 | ✓ |
| Arizona Senate | Richard Carmona (D) vs Jeff Flake (R) | 15 | R+4.6 | R+3.0 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Elizabeth H. Esty (D) vs Andrew W. Roraback (R) | 3 | R+4.0 | D+3.1 | ✗ |
| Washington Governor | Jay Robert Inslee (D) vs Rob McKenna (R) | 16 | D+3.8 | D+3.1 | ✓ |
| California House | Ami Bera (D) vs Dan Lungren (R) | 1 | D+0.7 | D+3.4 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Mark S. Critz (D) vs Keith J. Rothfus (R) | 5 | R+4.0 | R+3.5 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Val Demings (D) vs Daniel Webster (R) | 4 | R+8.7 | R+3.5 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs Jonathan Paton (R) | 1 | R+5.9 | D+3.6 | ✗ |
| Montana Senate | Jon Tester (D) vs Denny Rehberg (R) | 11 | D+0.5 | D+3.7 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs Frank C. Guinta (R) | 9 | R+2.4 | D+3.8 | ✗ |
| Virginia President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 59 | D+1.3 | D+3.9 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | Albert Ben Chandler (D) vs Andy Barr (R) | 3 | R+1.9 | R+3.9 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Betty Sutton (D) vs Jim Renacci (R) | 1 | R+10.8 | R+4.1 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Kyrsten Sinema (D) vs Vernon B. Parker (R) | 2 | EVEN | D+4.1 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Pete P. Gallego (D) vs Francisco R. Canseco (R) | 2 | R+7.2 | D+4.8 | ✗ |
| New Hampshire House | Ann McLane Kuster (D) vs Charles Bass (R) | 6 | D+4.2 | D+4.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | William L. Owens (D) vs Matthew A. Doheny (R) | 5 | D+2.7 | D+5.0 | ✓ |
| Colorado President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 43 | D+2.2 | D+5.4 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 38 | D+6.7 | D+5.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Jose Hernandez (D) vs Jeff Denham (R) | 2 | R+3.3 | R+5.4 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Al Lawson (D) vs Steve Southerland II (R) | 3 | R+1.8 | R+5.5 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Senate | Tammy Baldwin (D) vs Tommy Thompson (R) | 35 | D+1.6 | D+5.5 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 33 | D+3.1 | D+5.6 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Senate | Martin Heinrich (D) vs Heather A. Wilson (R) | 16 | D+7.4 | D+5.7 | ✓ |
| Indiana Senate | Joe Donnelly (D) vs Richard Mourdock (R) | 16 | D+0.5 | D+5.8 | ✓ |
| Iowa President | Mitt Romney (D) vs Rick Santorum (R) | 31 | D+3.5 | D+5.8 | ✓ |
| California House | Raul Ruiz (D) vs Mary Whitaker Bono Mack (R) | 5 | R+3.3 | D+5.9 | ✗ |
| Virginia Senate | Tim Kaine (D) vs George F. Allen (R) | 44 | D+3.3 | D+5.9 | ✓ |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown (D) vs Josh Mandel (R) | 56 | D+7.8 | D+6.0 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Jennifer Roberts (D) vs Robert Pittenger (R) | 1 | R+5.9 | R+6.1 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Syed Taj (D) vs Kerry L. Bentivolio (R) | 1 | R+9.5 | R+6.4 | ✓ |
| New York House | Sean Patrick Maloney (D) vs Nan Hayworth (R) | 4 | R+7.6 | D+6.5 | ✗ |
| Ohio House | Charles A. Wilson (D) vs Bill Johnson (R) | 3 | R+0.1 | R+6.5 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Cheri Bustos (D) vs Robert Schilling (R) | 6 | R+4.0 | D+6.6 | ✗ |
| Nevada President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 30 | D+4.4 | D+6.7 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Governor | Thomas M. Barrett (D) vs Scott Walker (R) | 17 | R+8.0 | R+6.8 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 39 | D+5.3 | D+6.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Ron Barber (D) vs Jesse Kelly (R) | 1 | D+14.0 | D+6.9 | ✓ |
| N2 President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 3 | R+6.3 | R+7.2 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Keith Fitzgerald (D) vs Vern Buchanan (R) | 1 | R+18.5 | R+7.2 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | John Barrow (D) vs Lee I. Anderson (R) | 2 | D+2.8 | D+7.4 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Senate | Elizabeth Warren (D) vs Scott Brown (R) | 30 | D+6.2 | D+7.5 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | John W. Oceguera (D) vs Joseph J. Heck (R) | 5 | R+12.0 | R+7.5 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Paul O. Hirschbiel (D) vs E. Scott Rigell (R) | 3 | R+16.3 | R+7.7 | ✓ |
| Minnesota President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 17 | D+8.8 | D+7.7 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Lawrence Webb Kissell (D) vs Richard Hudson (R) | 3 | R+6.5 | R+7.8 | ✓ |
| Georgia President | Mitt Romney (D) vs Newt Gingrich (R) | 7 | R+10.6 | R+7.8 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Suzan DelBene (D) vs John Koster (R) | 2 | D+1.9 | D+7.9 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Steven A. Horsford (D) vs Danny Tarkanian (R) | 3 | R+7.3 | D+8.0 | ✗ |
| Iowa House | Christie Vilsack (D) vs Steve King (R) | 3 | R+5.5 | R+8.1 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Mike Obermueller (D) vs John Kline (R) | 1 | R+9.1 | R+8.2 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Steven M. Pestka (D) vs Justin Amash (R) | 3 | R+8.3 | R+8.4 | ✓ |
| M2 President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 9 | D+3.5 | D+8.6 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Leonard L. Boswell (D) vs Tom Latham (R) | 1 | R+4.1 | R+8.6 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Shelley Adler (D) vs Jon Runyan (R) | 2 | R+13.3 | R+8.9 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Richard M. Nolan (D) vs Chip Cravaack (R) | 8 | D+1.0 | D+8.9 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | William L. Enyart (D) vs Jason Plummer (R) | 4 | D+2.3 | D+8.9 | ✓ |
| Arizona President | Rick Santorum (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 11 | R+8.9 | R+9.1 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) vs Tom Smith (R) | 36 | D+6.7 | D+9.1 | ✓ |
| Hawaii House | Colleen W. Hanabusa (D) vs Charles K. Djou (R) | 3 | D+9.9 | D+9.2 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Lois Frankel (D) vs Adam Hasner (R) | 6 | D+4.4 | D+9.3 | ✓ |
| New York House | Daniel B. Maffei (D) vs Ann Marie Buerkle (R) | 4 | R+0.1 | D+9.3 | ✗ |
| New York House | Timothy H. Bishop (D) vs Randolph Altschuler (R) | 3 | R+3.5 | D+9.3 | ✗ |
| Missouri President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 17 | R+10.5 | R+9.4 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Tammy Duckworth (D) vs Joe Walsh (R) | 8 | D+10.1 | D+9.5 | ✓ |
| Michigan President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 30 | D+8.3 | D+9.5 | ✓ |
| New Mexico President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 13 | D+9.2 | D+10.2 | ✓ |
| California House | Lois Capps (D) vs Abel Maldonado (R) | 1 | R+2.0 | D+10.2 | ✗ |
| Indiana President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 12 | R+13.4 | R+10.2 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Kim J. Gillan (D) vs Steve Daines (R) | 7 | R+8.5 | R+10.5 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Joe Garcia (D) vs David Rivera (R) | 6 | D+1.5 | D+10.6 | ✓ |
| California House | Jerry McNerney (D) vs Ricky Gill (R) | 2 | D+3.4 | D+11.1 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Governor | Walter H. Dalton (D) vs Pat McCrory (R) | 19 | R+13.4 | R+11.4 | ✓ |
| Tennessee House | Eric Stewart (D) vs Scott DesJarlais (R) | 1 | R+14.2 | R+11.5 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Rob T. Zerban (D) vs Paul Ryan (R) | 1 | R+25.4 | R+11.5 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Mike O'Brien (D) vs Fred Upton (R) | 1 | R+31.1 | R+12.0 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Jamie Wall (D) vs Reid J. Ribble (R) | 1 | R+10.8 | R+12.0 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | Maggie Hassan (D) vs Ovide Lamontagne (R) | 24 | D+3.1 | D+12.1 | ✓ |
| Oregon President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 6 | D+8.1 | D+12.1 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island House | David N. Cicilline (D) vs Brendan P. Doherty (R) | 7 | R+0.9 | D+12.1 | ✗ |
| Missouri Governor | Jay Nixon (D) vs David Spence (R) | 8 | D+13.0 | D+12.2 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Salvatore Pace (D) vs Scott Tipton (R) | 1 | R+5.6 | R+12.3 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Pat Kreitlow (D) vs Sean Duffy (R) | 3 | R+9.6 | R+12.3 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Senate | Christopher Murphy (D) vs Linda McMahon (R) | 19 | D+3.6 | D+12.5 | ✓ |
| Florida Senate | Bill Nelson (D) vs Connie Mack (R) | 45 | D+11.4 | D+13.0 | ✓ |
| North Dakota House | Pam Gulleson (D) vs Kevin Cramer (R) | 2 | R+11.7 | R+13.2 | ✓ |
| Montana President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 11 | R+11.1 | R+13.7 | ✓ |
| South Carolina House | Gloria Bromell-Tinubu (D) vs Tom Rice (R) | 1 | R+13.9 | R+13.9 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Suzanne Bonamici (D) vs Robert Y. Cornilles (R) | 3 | D+6.0 | D+14.2 | ✓ |
| Washington President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 17 | D+15.8 | D+14.9 | ✓ |
| South Dakota House | Matt Varilek (D) vs Kristi Noem (R) | 3 | R+12.2 | R+14.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Jessica Ehrlich (D) vs Charles William Young (R) | 1 | R+10.4 | R+15.1 | ✓ |
| Maine President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 8 | D+12.4 | D+15.3 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Bruce L. Braley (D) vs Benjamin M. Lange (R) | 1 | R+1.8 | D+15.3 | ✗ |
| California House | John S. Hernandez (D) vs David G. Valadao (R) | 2 | R+12.9 | R+15.5 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Senate | Bob Kerrey (D) vs Deb Fischer (R) | 6 | R+13.3 | R+15.6 | ✓ |
| Missouri Senate | Claire McCaskill (D) vs Todd Akin (R) | 22 | D+6.1 | D+15.7 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Herb Rule (D) vs Tim Griffin (R) | 1 | R+21.9 | R+15.7 | ✓ |
| Texas President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 6 | R+20.2 | R+15.8 | ✓ |
| Texas Senate | Paul Sadler (D) vs Ted Cruz (R) | 6 | R+21.6 | R+15.8 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Michael H. Michaud (D) vs Kevin L. Raye (R) | 7 | D+11.1 | D+16.4 | ✓ |
| Illinois President | Rick Santorum (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 6 | D+22.8 | D+16.9 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Scott Ellington (D) vs Rick Crawford (R) | 1 | R+26.6 | R+17.1 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Bill Foster (D) vs Judy Biggert (R) | 3 | D+0.5 | D+17.1 | ✓ |
| Louisiana President | Mitt Romney (D) vs Rick Santorum (R) | 4 | R+18.3 | R+17.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 15 | D+15.6 | D+17.3 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Cassandra Shober (D) vs Frank A. LoBiondo (R) | 1 | R+21.2 | R+17.4 | ✓ |
| Maine Senate | Cynthia Dill (D) vs Charlie Summers (R) | 9 | R+23.8 | R+17.5 | ✓ |
| New Jersey President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 13 | D+14.1 | D+17.7 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Derek Kilmer (D) vs Bill Driscoll (R) | 1 | D+15.8 | D+18.0 | ✓ |
| South Dakota President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 3 | R+14.4 | R+18.0 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Evelyn Madrid Erhard (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 2 | R+21.6 | R+18.2 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs Janice E. Arnold-Jones (R) | 3 | D+14.1 | D+18.3 | ✓ |
| New York House | Louise McIntosh Slaughter (D) vs Maggie Brooks (R) | 4 | D+7.5 | D+18.4 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | Rob Wallace (D) vs Markwayne Mullin (R) | 1 | R+13.3 | R+19.0 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Senate | Robert Menendez (D) vs Joe Kyrillos (R) | 11 | D+18.0 | D+19.5 | ✓ |
| North Dakota President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 4 | R+17.2 | R+19.6 | ✓ |
| Tennessee President | Mitt Romney (D) vs Rick Santorum (R) | 4 | R+16.7 | R+20.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Janice Hahn (D) vs Laura Richardson (R) | 2 | D+10.9 | D+20.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Brad Sherman (D) vs Howard L. Berman (R) | 4 | D+12.8 | D+20.6 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island House | Jim Langevin (D) vs Michael G. Riley (R) | 3 | D+15.6 | D+20.6 | ✓ |
| Michigan Senate | Debbie Stabenow (D) vs Pete Hoekstra (R) | 21 | D+16.5 | D+20.8 | ✓ |
| Maryland House | John K. Delaney (D) vs Roscoe G. Bartlett (R) | 1 | D+1.4 | D+20.9 | ✓ |
| Washington Senate | Maria Cantwell (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R) | 9 | D+22.1 | D+20.9 | ✓ |
| M1 President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 6 | D+18.2 | D+21.4 | ✓ |
| Nebraska President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 5 | R+19.1 | R+21.8 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Jeff Landry (D) vs Charles W. Boustany Jr. (R) | 1 | D+19.2 | D+21.8 | ✓ |
| Kentucky President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 1 | R+17.4 | R+22.7 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Harmon Jeffress (D) vs Tom Cotton (R) | 1 | R+29.5 | R+22.8 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 27 | D+24.6 | D+23.0 | ✓ |
| California President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 16 | D+20.3 | D+23.1 | ✓ |
| Arkansas President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 2 | R+29.3 | R+23.7 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Alan Grayson (D) vs William Todd Long (R) | 4 | D+6.6 | D+25.0 | ✓ |
| California Senate | Dianne Feinstein (D) vs Elizabeth Emken (R) | 13 | D+21.1 | D+25.1 | ✓ |
| Hawaii Senate | Mazie Hirono (D) vs Linda Lingle (R) | 5 | D+13.4 | D+25.2 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Harry Perkinson (D) vs Scott Perry (R) | 1 | R+23.6 | R+25.3 | ✓ |
| Maryland President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 7 | D+25.9 | D+26.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Jefferson L. Byrd (R) | 2 | D+20.3 | D+26.3 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 3 | D+23.2 | D+27.4 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) vs Karen Harrington (R) | 1 | D+3.5 | D+27.6 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Sander M. Levin (D) vs Don Volaric (R) | 1 | D+2.3 | D+27.9 | ✓ |
| Utah House | F. Jay Seegmiller (D) vs Chris Stewart (R) | 2 | R+23.6 | R+28.7 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Governor | Ryan M. Taylor (D) vs Jack Dalrymple (R) | 3 | R+29.8 | R+28.8 | ✓ |
| New York President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 7 | D+27.8 | D+29.5 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs Jonathan T.E. Courtney (R) | 5 | D+22.8 | D+29.6 | ✓ |
| Maryland Senate | Benjamin L. Cardin (D) vs Daniel J. Bongino (R) | 6 | D+27.5 | D+29.6 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Senate | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs Barry Hinckley (R) | 4 | D+18.8 | D+29.9 | ✓ |
| Idaho President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 1 | R+39.8 | R+31.9 | ✓ |
| New York House | Paul D. Tonko (D) vs Bob Dieterich (R) | 1 | D+18.9 | D+32.1 | ✓ |
| New York House | Grace Meng (D) vs Daniel J. Halloran (R) | 1 | D+2.9 | D+32.9 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma President | Mitt Romney (D) vs Rick Santorum (R) | 1 | R+30.0 | R+33.5 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Senate | Mark E. Clayton (D) vs Bob Corker (R) | 4 | R+32.6 | R+34.5 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Senate | Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Kurt Patrick Bills (R) | 13 | D+30.7 | D+34.7 | ✓ |
| Utah Senate | Scott N. Howell (D) vs Orrin G. Hatch (R) | 1 | R+40.8 | R+35.3 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Korey L. Reiman (D) vs Jeff Fortenberry (R) | 2 | R+41.3 | R+36.6 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Jesse Louis Jackson (D) vs Brian Woodworth (R) | 1 | D+33.0 | D+40.0 | ✓ |
| Utah Governor | Peter S. Cooke (D) vs Gary Richard Herbert (R) | 1 | R+47.3 | R+40.8 | ✓ |
| New York Senate | Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) vs Wendy E. Long (R) | 7 | D+35.1 | D+40.8 | ✓ |
| Hawaii President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 3 | D+32.2 | D+42.7 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Donna M. McAleer (D) vs Rob Bishop (R) | 1 | R+56.3 | R+46.8 | ✓ |
| Utah President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 1 | R+46.3 | R+48.0 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Roger Mark Sullivan (D) vs Adrian Smith (R) | 2 | R+42.1 | R+48.3 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Søren D. Simonsen (D) vs Jason Chaffetz (R) | 1 | R+50.5 | R+53.2 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Rebekah J. Kennedy (D) vs Steve Womack (R) | 1 | D+37.4 | D+59.9 | ✓ |
| Hawaii House | Tulsi Gabbard (D) vs Kawika Crowley (R) | 3 | D+52.1 | D+61.1 | ✓ |
| DC President | Barack Obama (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 1 | D+88.7 | D+83.6 | ✓ |