Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+0.5 | |
| Florida President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | EVEN | |
| Michigan House | Dianne Byrum (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) | 0 | — | R+0.1 | |
| New Mexico President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+0.1 | |
| Washington Senate | Maria Cantwell (D) vs Slade Gorton (R) | 0 | — | D+0.1 | |
| Wisconsin President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+0.2 | |
| Florida House | Elaine Bloom (D) vs E. Clay Shaw (R) | 0 | — | R+0.3 | |
| Iowa President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+0.3 | |
| Oregon President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+0.4 | |
| Connecticut House | Sam Gejdenson (D) vs Robert R. Simmons (R) | 0 | — | D+0.6 | |
| Missouri Governor | Robert Lee Holden, Jr. (D) vs Jim Talent (R) | 0 | — | D+0.9 | |
| New Hampshire President | Al Gore (D) vs John McCain (R) | 0 | — | R+1.3 | |
| Florida House | Linda Welch Chapin (D) vs Richard Keller (R) | 0 | — | R+1.6 | |
| Michigan Senate | Debbie Stabenow (D) vs Spencer Abraham (R) | 0 | — | D+1.6 | |
| Arkansas House | Michael Avery Ross (D) vs Jay Woodson Dickey (R) | 0 | — | D+1.9 | |
| Missouri Senate | Mel Carnahan (D) vs John Ashcroft (R) | 0 | — | D+2.1 | |
| Nebraska Senate | Ben Nelson (D) vs Don Stenberg (R) | 0 | — | D+2.2 | |
| Illinois House | Lauren Beth Gash (D) vs Mark Kirk (R) | 0 | — | R+2.4 | |
| Minnesota President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+2.4 | |
| West Virginia House | Jim Humphreys (D) vs Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 0 | — | R+2.6 | |
| West Virginia Governor | Bob Wise (D) vs Cecil Underwood (R) | 0 | — | D+2.9 | |
| New Jersey Senate | Jon Stevens Corzine (D) vs Bob Franks (R) | 0 | — | D+3.0 | |
| Montana Senate | Brian Schweitzer (D) vs Conrad Burns (R) | 0 | — | R+3.3 | |
| Missouri President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+3.3 | |
| California House | Susan A. Davis (D) vs Brian P. Bilbray (R) | 0 | — | D+3.5 | |
| Nevada President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+3.5 | |
| Ohio President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+3.5 | |
| Tennessee President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+3.9 | |
| Montana Governor | Mark O'Keefe (D) vs Judy Martz (R) | 0 | — | R+3.9 | |
| Washington House | Rick Larsen (D) vs John Koster (R) | 0 | — | D+4.1 | |
| Pennsylvania President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+4.2 | |
| Virginia Senate | Charles S. Robb (D) vs George F. Allen (R) | 0 | — | R+4.6 | |
| Florida Senate | Bill Nelson (D) vs Bill McCollum (R) | 0 | — | D+4.8 | |
| New Hampshire Governor | Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs Gordon Humphrey (R) | 0 | — | D+5.0 | |
| Maine President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+5.1 | |
| Michigan President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+5.1 | |
| Montana House | Nancy Keenan (D) vs Denny Rehberg (R) | 0 | — | R+5.2 | |
| Arkansas President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+5.4 | |
| Minnesota Senate | Mark Dayton (D) vs Rod Grams (R) | 0 | — | D+5.5 | |
| Washington President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+5.6 | |
| North Carolina Governor | Mike Easley (D) vs Richard Vinroot (R) | 0 | — | D+5.8 | |
| New Jersey House | Maryanne S. Connelly (D) vs Michael Ferguson (R) | 0 | — | R+6.0 | |
| Arizona President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+6.3 | |
| West Virginia President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+6.3 | |
| California House | Calvin M. Dooley (D) vs Rich Rodriguez (R) | 0 | — | D+6.8 | |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Ron Klink (D) vs Rick Santorum (R) | 0 | — | R+6.9 | |
| Alabama President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+7.5 | |
| Nevada House | Shelley Berkley (D) vs Jon C. Porter (R) | 0 | — | D+7.5 | |
| Louisiana President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+7.7 | |
| Virginia President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+8.0 | |
| Colorado President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+8.4 | |
| Ohio House | John Cranley (D) vs Steve Chabot (R) | 0 | — | R+8.4 | |
| Kentucky House | Eleanor Jordan (D) vs Anne Meagher Northup (R) | 0 | — | R+8.6 | |
| Ohio House | Maryellen O'Shaughnessy (D) vs Patrick J. Tiberi (R) | 0 | — | R+9.0 | |
| Vermont President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+9.9 | |
| North Dakota Governor | Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs John Hoeven (R) | 0 | — | R+10.1 | |
| Indiana House | Baron P. Hill (D) vs Michael E. Bailey (R) | 0 | — | D+10.4 | |
| Kentucky House | Kenneth R. Lucas (D) vs Don Bell (R) | 0 | — | D+10.8 | |
| Georgia President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+11.7 | |
| California President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+11.8 | |
| Delaware Senate | Thomas R. Carper (D) vs William V. Roth Jr. (R) | 0 | — | D+11.8 | |
| Washington House | Jay Robert Inslee (D) vs Dan McDonald (R) | 0 | — | D+11.9 | |
| Illinois President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+12.0 | |
| New York Senate | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Rick Lazio (R) | 0 | — | D+12.0 | |
| Vermont Governor | Howard Dean (D) vs Ruth Dwyer (R) | 0 | — | D+12.5 | |
| North Carolina President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+12.8 | |
| Missouri House | Ted House (D) vs Todd Akin (R) | 0 | — | R+12.9 | |
| Delaware President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+13.1 | |
| Oklahoma House | Brad R. Carson (D) vs Andy Ewing (R) | 0 | — | D+13.1 | |
| Utah Governor | Bill Orton (D) vs Michael Leavitt (R) | 0 | — | R+13.5 | |
| Indiana Governor | Frank L. O'Bannon (D) vs David McIntosh (R) | 0 | — | D+14.9 | |
| Kentucky President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+15.1 | |
| Nevada Senate | Ed Bernstein (D) vs John Ensign (R) | 0 | — | R+15.4 | |
| Indiana President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+15.6 | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Robert A. Weygand (D) vs Lincoln Chafee (R) | 0 | — | R+15.7 | |
| New Jersey President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+15.8 | |
| South Carolina President | John McCain (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+16.0 | |
| Maryland President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+16.3 | |
| Mississippi President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+16.9 | |
| Minnesota House | Betty McCollum (D) vs Linda Runbeck (R) | 0 | — | D+17.1 | |
| Connecticut President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+17.5 | |
| Pennsylvania House | Terry E. Van Horne (D) vs Melissa A. Hart (R) | 0 | — | R+18.0 | |
| Hawaii President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+18.3 | |
| Washington Governor | Gary Locke (D) vs John Carlson (R) | 0 | — | D+18.7 | |
| California Senate | Dianne Feinstein (D) vs Tom Campbell (R) | 0 | — | D+19.3 | |
| Delaware Governor | Ruth Minner (D) vs John Burris (R) | 0 | — | D+19.5 | |
| Florida House | Patsy Ann Kurth (D) vs David J. Weldon (R) | 0 | — | R+19.6 | |
| Kansas President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+20.8 | |
| Texas President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+21.3 | |
| Texas House | Kenneth E. Bentsen (D) vs Phil Sudan (R) | 0 | — | D+21.6 | |
| Oklahoma President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+21.9 | |
| South Dakota President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+22.7 | |
| North Dakota Senate | Kent Conrad (D) vs Duane Sand (R) | 0 | — | D+22.8 | |
| Alabama House | Marsha Guthrie Folsom (D) vs Robert Aderholt (R) | 0 | — | R+23.2 | |
| New Mexico Senate | Jeff Bingaman (D) vs Bill Redmond (R) | 0 | — | D+23.4 | |
| Ohio Senate | Ted Celeste (D) vs Mike DeWine (R) | 0 | — | R+24.1 | |
| New York President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+24.2 | |
| Wisconsin Senate | Herb Kohl (D) vs John Gillespie (R) | 0 | — | D+24.5 | |
| Montana President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+25.1 | |
| Maryland Senate | Paul S. Sarbanes (D) vs Paul H. Rappaport (R) | 0 | — | D+26.4 | |
| Washington House | Heidi Behrens-Benedict (D) vs Jennifer B. Dunn (R) | 0 | — | R+26.6 | |
| Massachusetts President | Al Gore (D) vs Bill Bradley (R) | 0 | — | D+27.0 | |
| North Dakota President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+27.6 | |
| Nebraska President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+29.0 | |
| Connecticut Senate | Joseph I. Lieberman (D) vs Phil Giordano (R) | 0 | — | D+29.0 | |
| Rhode Island President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+29.1 | |
| Alaska President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+30.9 | |
| Texas Senate | Gene Kelly (D) vs Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) | 0 | — | R+32.8 | |
| Tennessee Senate | Jeff Clark (D) vs Bill Frist (R) | 0 | — | R+32.9 | |
| Rhode Island House | Patrick Joseph Kennedy (D) vs Stephen Cabral (R) | 0 | — | D+33.4 | |
| Utah Senate | Scott N. Howell (D) vs Orrin G. Hatch (R) | 0 | — | R+34.1 | |
| Indiana Senate | David L. Johnson (D) vs Richard G. Lugar (R) | 0 | — | R+34.7 | |
| Maine Senate | Mark W. Lawrence (D) vs Olympia J. Snowe (R) | 0 | — | R+37.9 | |
| Idaho President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+39.5 | |
| Vermont Senate | Ed Flanagan (D) vs James M. Jeffords (R) | 0 | — | R+40.1 | |
| Utah President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+40.5 | |
| Wyoming President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+40.9 | |
| Rhode Island House | Jim Langevin (D) vs Robert G. Tingle (R) | 0 | — | D+48.2 | |
| Hawaii Senate | Daniel K. Akaka (D) vs John Stanley Carroll (R) | 0 | — | D+48.2 | |
| Wyoming Senate | Mel Logan (D) vs Craig Thomas (R) | 0 | — | R+51.7 | |
| Massachusetts Senate | Edward M. Kennedy (D) vs Jack E. Robinson (R) | 0 | — | D+56.9 | |
| West Virginia Senate | Robert C. Byrd (D) vs David T. Gallaher (R) | 0 | — | D+57.6 | |
| Arizona Senate | William Toel (D) vs Jon Kyl (R) | 0 | — | D+71.5 | |
| DC President | Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | D+76.2 |