Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2007, the model called 3/3 of these races right (100%) using only pre-2007 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts House | Niki Tsongas (D) vs Jim Ogonowski (R) | 2 | D+9.6 | D+6.2 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Robin R. Weirauch (D) vs Bob Latta (R) | 1 | R+12.9 | R+14.1 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Governor | Steve Beshear (D) vs Ernest Lee Fletcher (R) | 9 | D+20.0 | D+17.4 | ✓ |