Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2025, the model called 4/4 of these races right (100%) using only pre-2025 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee House | — | 1 | R+6.5 | R+8.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | — | 1 | R+8.5 | R+14.0 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Governor | — | 15 | D+3.0 | D+14.4 | ✓ |
| Virginia Governor | — | 21 | D+7.8 | D+15.4 | ✓ |