Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Senate | Harry Reid (D) vs John Ensign (R) | 0 | — | D+0.1 | |
| Pennsylvania House | Patrick R. Casey (D) vs Donald L. Sherwood (R) | 0 | — | R+0.3 | |
| Kentucky Senate | Scotty Baesler (D) vs Jim Bunning (R) | 0 | — | R+0.6 | |
| Colorado Governor | Gail Schoettler (D) vs William F. Owens (R) | 0 | — | R+0.6 | |
| Hawaii Governor | Benjamin Cayetano (D) vs Linda Lingle (R) | 0 | — | D+1.3 | |
| Wisconsin Senate | Russ Feingold (D) vs Mark W. Neumann (R) | 0 | — | D+2.1 | |
| California House | Janice Hahn (D) vs Steven T. Kuykendall (R) | 0 | — | R+2.3 | |
| Colorado House | Mark Udall (D) vs Bob Greenlee (R) | 0 | — | D+2.4 | |
| North Carolina House | Mike Taylor (D) vs Robert C. Hayes (R) | 0 | — | R+2.5 | |
| Indiana House | Baron P. Hill (D) vs Jean Leising (R) | 0 | — | D+2.8 | |
| Illinois Senate | Carol Moseley-Braun (D) vs Peter G. Fitzgerald (R) | 0 | — | R+2.9 | |
| Oregon House | David Wu (D) vs Molly Bordonaro (R) | 0 | — | D+3.0 | |
| Massachusetts Governor | Scott Harshbarger (D) vs A. Paul Cellucci (R) | 0 | — | R+3.4 | |
| Illinois Governor | Glenn Poshard (D) vs George Ryan (R) | 0 | — | R+3.6 | |
| Nevada House | Shelley Berkley (D) vs Don Chairez (R) | 0 | — | D+3.6 | |
| North Carolina Senate | John Edwards (D) vs Lauch Faircloth (R) | 0 | — | D+4.1 | |
| Pennsylvania House | Joe Hoeffel (D) vs Jon David Fox (R) | 0 | — | D+5.0 | |
| Ohio Governor | Lee Fisher (D) vs Bob Taft (R) | 0 | — | R+5.4 | |
| Washington House | Jay Robert Inslee (D) vs Richard Alan White (R) | 0 | — | D+5.7 | |
| Iowa Governor | Tom Vilsack (D) vs Jim Lightfoot (R) | 0 | — | D+5.8 | |
| Minnesota Governor | Hubert Humphrey III (D) vs Norm Coleman (R) | 0 | — | R+6.2 | |
| Maine Governor | Thomas Connolly (D) vs James Longley Jr. (R) | 0 | — | R+6.9 | |
| South Carolina Senate | Ernest F. Hollings (D) vs Bob Inglis (R) | 0 | — | D+7.0 | |
| Kentucky House | Ernesto Scorsone (D) vs Ernest Lee Fletcher (R) | 0 | — | R+7.2 | |
| Georgia Senate | Michael J. Coles (D) vs Paul Coverdell (R) | 0 | — | R+7.2 | |
| Idaho House | Richard Stallings (D) vs Mike Simpson (R) | 0 | — | R+7.8 | |
| Nebraska Governor | Bill Hoppner (D) vs Mike Johanns (R) | 0 | — | R+7.9 | |
| South Carolina Governor | James H. Hodges (D) vs David M. Beasley (R) | 0 | — | D+8.0 | |
| New Hampshire House | Mary Rauh (D) vs Charles Bass (R) | 0 | — | R+8.4 | |
| Georgia Governor | Roy Barnes (D) vs Guy Millner (R) | 0 | — | D+8.4 | |
| Mississippi House | Ronnie Shows (D) vs Delbert Hosemann (R) | 0 | — | D+8.5 | |
| Montana House | Dusty Deschamps (D) vs Richard A. Hill (R) | 0 | — | R+8.7 | |
| Rhode Island Governor | Myrth York (D) vs Lincoln Almond (R) | 0 | — | R+8.8 | |
| Missouri Senate | Jay Nixon (D) vs Christopher S. Bond (R) | 0 | — | R+8.9 | |
| New Mexico Governor | Martin Chavez (D) vs Gary Johnson (R) | 0 | — | R+9.1 | |
| Utah House | Lily Eskelsen (D) vs Merrill Cook (R) | 0 | — | R+9.3 | |
| Nevada Governor | Jan Jones (D) vs Kenny Guinn (R) | 0 | — | R+9.6 | |
| New Mexico House | Tom Udall (D) vs Bill Redmond (R) | 0 | — | D+9.9 | |
| California Senate | Barbara Boxer (D) vs Matt Fong (R) | 0 | — | D+10.1 | |
| Maryland Governor | Parris Glendening (D) vs Ellen Sauerbrey (R) | 0 | — | D+10.3 | |
| Idaho House | Dan Williams (D) vs Helen Chenoweth (R) | 0 | — | R+10.5 | |
| Florida Governor | Buddy MacKay (D) vs Jeb Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+10.6 | |
| Massachusetts House | John F. Tierney (D) vs Peter G. Torkildsen (R) | 0 | — | D+12.2 | |
| Arkansas Senate | Blanche Lincoln (D) vs Fay Boozman (R) | 0 | — | D+12.8 | |
| Ohio Senate | Mary Boyle (D) vs George V. Voinovich (R) | 0 | — | R+12.9 | |
| Ohio House | Ted Strickland (D) vs Nancy P. Hollister (R) | 0 | — | D+13.9 | |
| New York Governor | Peter Vallone (D) vs George Pataki (R) | 0 | — | R+14.1 | |
| New York Senate | Charles E. Schumer (D) vs Alfonse M. D'Amato (R) | 0 | — | D+14.2 | |
| Wisconsin House | Lydia Carol Spottswood (D) vs Paul Ryan (R) | 0 | — | R+14.4 | |
| Vermont Governor | Howard Dean (D) vs Ruth Dwyer (R) | 0 | — | D+14.5 | |
| North Dakota House | Earl Pomeroy (D) vs Kevin Cramer (R) | 0 | — | D+15.1 | |
| Alabama Governor | Don Siegelman (D) vs Forrest H. 'Fob' James, Jr. (R) | 0 | — | D+15.6 | |
| North Carolina House | Bob R. Etheridge (D) vs Dan Page (R) | 0 | — | D+15.7 | |
| North Carolina House | David E. Price (D) vs Thomas H. Roberg (R) | 0 | — | D+15.9 | |
| Arkansas House | Victor F. Snyder (D) vs Phil Wyrick (R) | 0 | — | D+15.9 | |
| Connecticut House | John B. Larson (D) vs Kevin James O'Connor (R) | 0 | — | D+16.6 | |
| Washington Senate | Patty Murray (D) vs Linda Smith (R) | 0 | — | D+16.8 | |
| California House | Loretta Sanchez (D) vs Robert K. Dornan (R) | 0 | — | D+17.1 | |
| California House | Brad Sherman (D) vs Randy Hoffman (R) | 0 | — | D+18.8 | |
| Indiana House | Julia M. Carson (D) vs Gary Anthony Hofmeister (R) | 0 | — | D+19.0 | |
| California Governor | Gray Davis (D) vs Dan Lungren (R) | 0 | — | D+19.6 | |
| Kansas House | Jim Lawing (D) vs Todd Tiahrt (R) | 0 | — | R+19.7 | |
| Wisconsin Governor | Ed Garvey (D) vs Tommy Thompson (R) | 0 | — | R+21.0 | |
| Arkansas Governor | Bill Bristow (D) vs Mike Huckabee (R) | 0 | — | R+21.1 | |
| Michigan Governor | Geoffrey Fieger (D) vs John Engler (R) | 0 | — | R+24.4 | |
| Florida Senate | Bob Graham (D) vs Charlie Crist (R) | 0 | — | D+24.9 | |
| Hawaii House | Neil Abercrombie (D) vs Gene Ward (R) | 0 | — | D+25.2 | |
| Arizona Governor | Paul Johnson (D) vs Jane Hull (R) | 0 | — | R+25.4 | |
| South Dakota Senate | Tom Daschle (D) vs Ron Schmidt (R) | 0 | — | D+25.7 | |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Ivan Itkin (D) vs Thomas Ridge (R) | 0 | — | R+26.4 | |
| Alabama Senate | Clayton Suddith (D) vs Richard C. Shelby (R) | 0 | — | R+26.6 | |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Bill Lloyd (D) vs Arlen Specter (R) | 0 | — | R+26.6 | |
| Oregon Senate | Ron Wyden (D) vs John Lim (R) | 0 | — | D+27.3 | |
| Connecticut Governor | Barbara Kennelly (D) vs John Rowland (R) | 0 | — | R+27.5 | |
| Colorado Senate | Dottie Lamm (D) vs Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) | 0 | — | R+27.5 | |
| Indiana Senate | Evan Bayh (D) vs Paul Helmke (R) | 0 | — | D+28.9 | |
| Utah Senate | Scott Leckman (D) vs Robert F. Bennett (R) | 0 | — | R+31.0 | |
| Connecticut Senate | Christopher J. Dodd (D) vs Gary A. Franks (R) | 0 | — | D+32.8 | |
| Kansas Senate | Paul Feleciano (D) vs Sam Brownback (R) | 0 | — | R+33.7 | |
| Oregon Governor | John Kitzhaber (D) vs Bill Sizemore (R) | 0 | — | D+34.4 | |
| Oklahoma Senate | Don Carroll (D) vs Don Nickles (R) | 0 | — | R+35.1 | |
| New Hampshire Governor | Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs Jay Lucas (R) | 0 | — | D+35.2 | |
| Texas Governor | Garry Mauro (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 0 | — | R+37.1 | |
| Iowa Senate | David Osterberg (D) vs Chuck Grassley (R) | 0 | — | R+37.9 | |
| New Hampshire Senate | George Condodemetraky (D) vs Judd Gregg (R) | 0 | — | R+39.6 | |
| Maryland Senate | Barbara A. Mikulski (D) vs Ross Z. Pierpont (R) | 0 | — | D+41.0 | |
| Arizona Senate | Edward Ranger (D) vs John McCain (R) | 0 | — | R+41.6 | |
| Vermont Senate | Patrick J. Leahy (D) vs Fred Tuttle (R) | 0 | — | D+49.8 | |
| Kansas Governor | Tom Sawyer (D) vs William Graves (R) | 0 | — | R+50.7 |