Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2013, the model called 4/5 of these races right (80%) using only pre-2013 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Governor | Terry R. McAuliffe (D) vs Kenneth T. Cuccinelli (R) | 32 | D+10.7 | D+2.5 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Senate | Edward J. Markey (D) vs Gabriel E. Gomez (R) | 22 | D+13.1 | D+10.2 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory A. Booker (D) vs Steven M. Lonegan (R) | 15 | D+19.4 | D+10.9 | ✓ |
| South Carolina House | Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) vs Mark Sanford (R) | 6 | D+4.1 | R+12.2 | ✗ |
| New Jersey Governor | Barbara Buono (D) vs Chris Christie (R) | 19 | R+24.0 | R+22.1 | ✓ |