Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2009, the model called 3/5 of these races right (60%) using only pre-2009 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York House | Scott Murphy (D) vs James Nicholas Tedisco (R) | 5 | R+4.5 | D+0.9 | ✗ |
| New Jersey Governor | Jon Stevens Corzine (D) vs Chris Christie (R) | 43 | D+0.4 | R+3.6 | ✗ |
| California House | John Garamendi (D) vs David Harmer (R) | 1 | D+10.0 | D+10.0 | ✓ |
| Virginia Governor | R. Creigh Deeds (D) vs Robert Francis McDonnell (R) | 25 | R+12.6 | R+17.4 | ✓ |
| New York House | William L. Owens (D) vs Dierdre K. Scozzafava (R) | 9 | D+13.6 | D+39.2 | ✓ |