Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2022, the model called 113/134 of these races right (84%) using only pre-2022 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado House | Adam Frisch (D) vs Lauren Boebert (R) | 2 | R+0.8 | R+0.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Jahana Hayes (D) vs George Logan (R) | 3 | R+0.5 | D+0.2 | ✗ |
| Michigan House | Carl J. Marlinga (D) vs John James (R) | 2 | R+2.9 | R+0.5 | ✓ |
| Arizona Governor | Katie Hobbs (D) vs Kari Lake (R) | 39 | R+5.0 | D+0.7 | ✗ |
| Colorado House | Yadira Caraveo (D) vs Barbara Kirkmeyer (R) | 1 | R+7.0 | D+0.7 | ✗ |
| Iowa House | Cindy Axne (D) vs Zach Nunn (R) | 3 | R+1.8 | R+0.7 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Gabriel Vasquez (D) vs Yvette Herrell (R) | 4 | R+5.1 | D+0.7 | ✗ |
| Nevada Senate | Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs Adam Paul Laxalt (R) | 31 | R+3.4 | D+0.8 | ✗ |
| Washington House | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs Joe Kent (R) | 1 | R+9.0 | D+0.8 | ✗ |
| Georgia Senate | Raphael Warnock (D) vs Herschel Junior Walker (R) | 59 | R+0.2 | D+1.0 | ✗ |
| Wisconsin Senate | Mandela Barnes (D) vs Ron Johnson (R) | 27 | R+5.1 | R+1.0 | ✓ |
| Nevada Governor | Steve Sisolak (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R) | 26 | R+4.0 | R+1.5 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Susan Wild (D) vs Lisa Scheller (R) | 1 | D+0.4 | D+2.0 | ✓ |
| Kansas Governor | Laura Kelly (D) vs Derek Schmidt (R) | 2 | D+2.5 | D+2.2 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Andrea Salinas (D) vs Mike Erickson (R) | 2 | R+5.4 | D+2.5 | ✗ |
| Pennsylvania House | Matt Cartwright (D) vs Jim Bognet (R) | 3 | D+3.4 | D+2.5 | ✓ |
| New York House | Sean Patrick Maloney (D) vs Michael V. Lawler (R) | 1 | R+4.9 | D+2.7 | ✗ |
| New Jersey House | Tom Malinowski (D) vs Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) | 1 | R+3.3 | R+2.8 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Monica Tranel (D) vs Ryan K. Zinke (R) | 3 | R+5.8 | R+3.2 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Wiley Nickel (D) vs Bo Hines (R) | 1 | R+1.3 | D+3.2 | ✗ |
| North Carolina Senate | Cheri Beasley (D) vs Ted Budd (R) | 21 | R+7.0 | R+3.2 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Governor | Tony Evers (D) vs Tim Michels (R) | 23 | R+2.1 | D+3.4 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Elaine G. Luria (D) vs Jen A. Kiggans (R) | 1 | R+0.5 | R+3.4 | ✓ |
| Oregon Governor | Tina Kotek (D) vs Christine Drazan (R) | 15 | D+0.3 | D+3.4 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island House | Seth M. Magaziner (D) vs Allan W. Fung (R) | 4 | R+3.8 | D+3.7 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | Eric Sorensen (D) vs Esther Joy King (R) | 1 | D+7.1 | D+4.0 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Susie Lee (D) vs April Becker (R) | 1 | R+5.5 | D+4.0 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Abigail A. Spanberger (D) vs Yesli I. Vega (R) | 1 | R+2.4 | D+4.7 | ✗ |
| California House | Will Rollins (D) vs Ken Calvert (R) | 1 | R+6.3 | R+4.7 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Don Davis (D) vs Sandy Smith (R) | 1 | D+10.4 | D+4.7 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Steven A. Horsford (D) vs Sam Peters (R) | 1 | D+2.8 | D+4.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona Senate | Mark Kelly (D) vs Blake Masters (R) | 43 | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Senate | John Fetterman (D) vs Mehmet Oz (R) | 40 | D+1.4 | D+4.9 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Angie Craig (D) vs Tyler Kistner (R) | 1 | D+0.5 | D+5.2 | ✓ |
| California House | Mike Levin (D) vs Brian Maryott (R) | 1 | D+6.0 | D+5.3 | ✓ |
| New York House | Pat Ryan (D) vs Marcus Molinaro (R) | 7 | R+5.1 | D+5.3 | ✗ |
| Ohio House | Emilia Sykes (D) vs Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) | 1 | D+1.4 | D+5.3 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Elissa Slotkin (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) | 4 | D+4.6 | D+5.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Greg Landsman (D) vs Steve Chabot (R) | 2 | R+1.6 | D+5.5 | ✗ |
| Nevada House | Dina Titus (D) vs Mark Robertson (R) | 2 | R+8.0 | D+5.6 | ✗ |
| Maine House | Jared Forrest Golden (D) vs Bruce Poliquin (R) | 4 | D+2.3 | D+6.1 | ✓ |
| New York House | Francis Conole (D) vs Brandon M. Williams (R) | 4 | D+1.3 | D+6.1 | ✓ |
| Ohio Senate | Tim Ryan (D) vs J.D. Vance (R) | 29 | R+5.7 | R+6.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Governor | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs Mark V. Ronchetti (R) | 9 | D+4.9 | D+6.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Christy Smith (D) vs Mike Garcia (R) | 1 | D+0.8 | R+6.5 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Jennifer T. Wexton (D) vs Hung Cao (R) | 1 | D+7.0 | D+6.5 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Chris Deluzio (D) vs Jeremy Shaffer (R) | 1 | D+0.5 | D+6.8 | ✓ |
| New York Governor | Kathy C. Hochul (D) vs Lee M. Zeldin (R) | 23 | D+8.1 | D+7.3 | ✓ |
| Alaska Senate | Kelly C. Tshibaka (D) vs Lisa Murkowski (R) | 3 | D+6.9 | D+7.4 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Val Hoyle (D) vs Alek Skarlatos (R) | 1 | R+1.3 | D+7.5 | ✗ |
| Georgia Governor | Stacey Abrams (D) vs Brian Kemp (R) | 41 | R+9.5 | R+7.5 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Governor | Tim Walz (D) vs Scott Jensen (R) | 8 | D+7.4 | D+7.7 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Jeff Ettinger (D) vs Brad Finstad (R) | 2 | R+10.3 | R+7.7 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Eric Lynn (D) vs Anna Paulina Luna (R) | 2 | R+2.2 | R+8.1 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Chris Pappas (D) vs Karoline Leavitt (R) | 7 | D+0.2 | D+8.1 | ✓ |
| California House | Jim Costa (D) vs Michael Maher (R) | 1 | R+2.7 | D+8.4 | ✗ |
| Texas House | Michelle Vallejo (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R) | 1 | R+4.3 | R+8.5 | ✓ |
| California House | Julia Brownley (D) vs Matt Jacobs (R) | 1 | D+4.8 | D+9.1 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Senate | Maggie Hassan (D) vs Donald C. Bolduc (R) | 22 | D+2.1 | D+9.1 | ✓ |
| Maryland House | David J. Trone (D) vs Neil C. Parrott (R) | 1 | D+5.8 | D+9.6 | ✓ |
| Alaska House | Mary S. Peltola (D) vs Sarah Palin (R) | 6 | D+7.6 | D+9.9 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Sanford Bishop (D) vs Chris West (R) | 2 | D+2.2 | D+9.9 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Daniel T. Kildee (D) vs Paul Junge (R) | 1 | R+5.5 | D+10.1 | ✗ |
| Utah Senate | Evan McMullin (D) vs Mike Lee (R) | 9 | D+4.5 | D+10.4 | ✓ |
| Michigan Governor | Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs Tudor M. Dixon (R) | 25 | D+4.6 | D+10.5 | ✓ |
| Texas Governor | Beto O'Rourke (D) vs Greg Abbott (R) | 17 | R+12.0 | R+10.9 | ✓ |
| New York House | Joseph D. Morelle (D) vs La'Ron D. Singletary (R) | 1 | D+9.3 | D+11.3 | ✓ |
| Maryland House | Heather R. Mizeur (D) vs Andy Harris (R) | 1 | R+10.2 | R+11.3 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Governor | Edward Lamont (D) vs Robert Stefanowski (R) | 8 | D+16.8 | D+11.4 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) vs Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) | 2 | D+12.0 | D+11.5 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Ann McLane Kuster (D) vs Robert Burns (R) | 7 | D+6.9 | D+11.7 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Sharice Davids (D) vs Amanda L. Adkins (R) | 1 | D+13.5 | D+12.2 | ✓ |
| Iowa Senate | Michael Franken (D) vs Chuck Grassley (R) | 9 | R+12.7 | R+12.2 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Summer Lee (D) vs Mike Doyle (R) | 1 | D+7.8 | D+12.4 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) vs Lee Murphy (R) | 1 | D+14.4 | D+12.5 | ✓ |
| Illinois Governor | J.B. Pritzker (D) vs Darren Bailey (R) | 10 | D+11.5 | D+12.5 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Senate | Richard Blumenthal (D) vs Leora R. Levy (R) | 6 | D+16.1 | D+13.1 | ✓ |
| Maine Governor | Janet T. Mills (D) vs Paul R. LePage (R) | 6 | D+7.8 | D+13.2 | ✓ |
| Missouri Senate | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) vs Eric Schmitt (R) | 7 | R+16.4 | R+13.3 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Governor | Joy Hofmeister (D) vs Kevin Stitt (R) | 14 | R+4.7 | R+13.7 | ✓ |
| New York Senate | Charles E. Schumer (D) vs Joe Pinion (R) | 14 | D+18.1 | D+14.0 | ✓ |
| Washington Senate | Patty Murray (D) vs Tiffany Smiley (R) | 16 | D+4.7 | D+14.5 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Annette Taddeo (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) | 2 | R+6.4 | R+14.6 | ✓ |
| Colorado Senate | Michael Bennet (D) vs Joe O'Dea (R) | 14 | D+8.2 | D+14.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Josh Shapiro (D) vs Douglas V. Mastriano (R) | 40 | D+11.8 | D+14.8 | ✓ |
| Oregon Senate | Ron Wyden (D) vs Jo Rae Perkins (R) | 5 | D+14.6 | D+14.9 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Patrick Schmidt (D) vs Jake LaTurner (R) | 1 | R+10.6 | R+15.3 | ✓ |
| Illinois Senate | Tammy Duckworth (D) vs Kathy Salvi (R) | 6 | D+15.6 | D+15.3 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | Tom Sherman (D) vs Chris Sununu (R) | 20 | R+20.0 | R+15.5 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) vs Alexis Martinez Johnson (R) | 2 | D+19.6 | D+16.3 | ✓ |
| Florida Senate | Val Demings (D) vs Marco Rubio (R) | 21 | R+10.6 | R+16.4 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Alan M. Cohn (D) vs Laurel Lee (R) | 1 | R+11.4 | R+17.1 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Joe Courtney (D) vs Mike France (R) | 1 | D+21.5 | D+18.1 | ✓ |
| VI Governor | Albert Bryan (D) vs Kurt A. Vialet (R) | 2 | D+3.8 | D+18.1 | ✓ |
| California Governor | Gavin Newsom (D) vs Brian Dahle (R) | 8 | D+21.2 | D+18.4 | ✓ |
| Iowa Governor | Deidre DeJear (D) vs Kim Reynolds (R) | 7 | R+19.6 | R+18.5 | ✓ |
| Maryland House | C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) vs Nicolee Ambrose (R) | 1 | D+7.9 | D+18.6 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Daniel J. McKee (D) vs Ashley Kalus (R) | 2 | D+11.3 | D+19.1 | ✓ |
| New York House | Max N. Rose (D) vs Nicole Malliotakis (R) | 1 | R+4.4 | R+19.2 | ✓ |
| Colorado Governor | Jared Polis (D) vs Heidi Ganahl (R) | 13 | D+12.1 | D+19.4 | ✓ |
| Florida Governor | Charlie Crist (D) vs Ron DeSantis (R) | 28 | R+10.5 | R+19.4 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Al Lawson (D) vs Neal Dunn (R) | 1 | R+9.9 | R+19.6 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Jim Himes (D) vs Jayme Stevenson (R) | 1 | D+14.2 | D+19.9 | ✓ |
| Indiana Senate | Thomas McDermott (D) vs Todd Young (R) | 2 | R+13.3 | R+20.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | LaShonda "L.J." Holloway (D) vs Aaron Bean (R) | 1 | R+16.8 | R+20.9 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Elizabeth Mercedes Krause (D) vs Mark E. Amodei (R) | 1 | R+29.8 | R+21.9 | ✓ |
| California Senate | Alex Padilla (D) vs Mark P. Meuser (R) | 5 | D+18.6 | D+22.1 | ✓ |
| Kansas Senate | Mark R. Holland (D) vs Jerry Moran (R) | 2 | R+23.6 | R+23.0 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Governor | Carol Blood (D) vs Jim Pillen (R) | 1 | R+10.2 | R+23.2 | ✓ |
| North Dakota House | Cara Mund (D) vs Kelly Armstrong (R) | 3 | D+9.8 | D+24.6 | ✓ |
| Ohio Governor | Nan Whaley (D) vs Mike DeWine (R) | 30 | R+21.0 | R+25.0 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs Edwin Thelander (R) | 3 | D+22.5 | D+25.9 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Brad Schneider (D) vs Joseph Severino (R) | 1 | D+8.3 | D+26.0 | ✓ |
| Alaska Governor | Les Gara (D) vs Mike Dunleavy (R) | 2 | R+28.1 | R+26.1 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Governor | Jamie Smith (D) vs Kristi Noem (R) | 2 | R+17.0 | R+26.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Robert Asencio (D) vs Carlos A. Gimenez (R) | 1 | R+16.0 | R+27.4 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Governor | Chris Jones (D) vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | 4 | R+21.6 | R+27.8 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Governor | Maura Healey (D) vs Geoff Diehl (R) | 5 | D+24.4 | D+29.1 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Senate | Kendra Horn (D) vs James Lankford (R) | 18 | R+20.7 | R+29.4 | ✓ |
| Maryland Senate | Chris Van Hollen (D) vs Chris Chaffee (R) | 1 | D+24.9 | D+31.7 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Governor | Jason Brantley Martin (D) vs Bill Lee (R) | 1 | R+30.8 | R+32.0 | ✓ |
| Maryland Governor | Wes Moore (D) vs Dan Cox (R) | 3 | D+25.1 | D+32.4 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Senate | Natalie James (D) vs John Boozman (R) | 3 | R+28.5 | R+34.6 | ✓ |
| Vermont House | Becca Balint (D) vs Liam Madden (R) | 2 | D+28.8 | D+34.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Rebekah D. Jones (D) vs Matt Gaetz (R) | 1 | R+8.8 | R+35.7 | ✓ |
| Alabama Senate | Will Boyd (D) vs Katie Britt (R) | 1 | R+37.1 | R+35.7 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Penny Ronning (D) vs Matt Rosendale (R) | 1 | R+29.8 | R+36.4 | ✓ |
| Alabama Governor | Yolanda Rochelle Flowers (D) vs Kay Ivey (R) | 1 | R+40.8 | R+37.7 | ✓ |
| Vermont Senate | Peter Welch (D) vs Gerald Malloy (R) | 2 | D+31.2 | D+40.4 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Senate | Brian L. Bengs (D) vs John R. Thune (R) | 3 | R+29.9 | R+43.5 | ✓ |
| Wyoming House | Lynnette GreyBull (D) vs Harriet Hageman (R) | 1 | R+45.8 | R+43.8 | ✓ |
| Vermont Governor | Brenda Siegel (D) vs Phil Scott (R) | 2 | R+39.0 | R+47.0 | ✓ |
| South Dakota House | Collin Duprel (D) vs Dusty Johnson (R) | 1 | D+34.7 | D+54.8 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Governor | Theresa A. Livingston (D) vs Mark Gordon (R) | 1 | R+57.2 | R+58.3 | ✓ |