Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2018, the model called 166/207 of these races right (80%) using only pre-2018 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Senate | Bill Nelson (D) vs Rick Scott (R) | 51 | R+0.9 | R+0.1 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) vs Rob Woodall (R) | 2 | R+17.2 | R+0.1 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Ben McAdams (D) vs Mia B. Love (R) | 5 | R+1.4 | D+0.3 | ✗ |
| Pennsylvania House | Conor Lamb (D) vs Richard Saccone (R) | 7 | R+4.2 | D+0.3 | ✗ |
| Florida Governor | Andrew Gillum (D) vs Ron DeSantis (R) | 51 | D+1.6 | R+0.4 | ✗ |
| Texas House | Gina Ortiz Jones (D) vs Will Hurd (R) | 3 | R+20.2 | R+0.4 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Dan Feehan (D) vs Jim Hagedorn (R) | 1 | D+1.0 | R+0.5 | ✗ |
| California House | TJ Cox (D) vs David G. Valadao (R) | 1 | R+14.6 | D+0.8 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) vs Rodney Davis (R) | 4 | R+10.1 | R+0.8 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Danny O'Connor (D) vs Troy Balderson (R) | 10 | R+5.7 | R+0.8 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Paul Davis (D) vs Steve Watkins (R) | 5 | R+4.0 | R+0.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | Dana Balter (D) vs John Katko (R) | 1 | R+17.6 | D+0.9 | ✗ |
| New York House | Perry Gershon (D) vs Lee M. Zeldin (R) | 4 | R+13.7 | D+1.0 | ✗ |
| Georgia House | Lucy McBath (D) vs Karen Handel (R) | 4 | R+1.5 | D+1.0 | ✗ |
| Wisconsin Governor | Tony Evers (D) vs Scott Walker (R) | 8 | R+2.0 | D+1.1 | ✗ |
| Maine House | Jared Forrest Golden (D) vs Bruce Poliquin (R) | 5 | R+3.7 | D+1.3 | ✗ |
| New Jersey House | Andy Kim (D) vs Tom MacArthur (R) | 5 | R+3.5 | D+1.3 | ✗ |
| Georgia Governor | Stacey Abrams (D) vs Brian Kemp (R) | 15 | R+5.2 | R+1.4 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | Kendra Horn (D) vs Steve Russell (R) | 4 | R+18.6 | D+1.4 | ✗ |
| Florida House | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs Carlos Curbelo (R) | 6 | R+4.6 | D+1.8 | ✗ |
| New Mexico House | Xochitl Torres Small (D) vs Yvette Herrell (R) | 7 | R+6.0 | D+1.9 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Abigail A. Spanberger (D) vs David Brat (R) | 5 | R+4.8 | D+1.9 | ✗ |
| Nebraska House | Kara Eastman (D) vs Don Bacon (R) | 4 | R+12.9 | R+2.0 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Cindy Axne (D) vs David Young (R) | 4 | R+3.8 | D+2.2 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Elaine G. Luria (D) vs Scott W. Taylor (R) | 6 | R+5.4 | D+2.2 | ✗ |
| New York House | Anthony J. Brindisi (D) vs Claudia Tenney (R) | 3 | R+5.6 | D+2.3 | ✗ |
| Arizona Senate | Kyrsten Sinema (D) vs Martha McSally (R) | 32 | R+1.9 | D+2.3 | ✗ |
| Pennsylvania House | Scott Wallace (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | 5 | R+2.9 | R+2.5 | ✓ |
| Texas Senate | Beto O'Rourke (D) vs Ted Cruz (R) | 23 | R+11.3 | R+2.6 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Joseph Kopser (D) vs Chip Roy (R) | 1 | R+15.5 | R+2.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | George B. Scott (D) vs Scott Perry (R) | 3 | R+7.2 | R+2.6 | ✓ |
| Iowa Governor | Fred Hubbell (D) vs Kim Reynolds (R) | 6 | R+1.9 | R+2.7 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Mary Jennings Hegar (D) vs John Carter (R) | 3 | R+16.9 | R+2.9 | ✓ |
| California House | Gilbert Cisneros (D) vs Young Kim (R) | 4 | R+4.0 | D+3.1 | ✗ |
| Kentucky House | Amy McGrath (D) vs Andy Barr (R) | 5 | R+4.1 | R+3.2 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Senate | Joe Manchin, III (D) vs Patrick Morrisey (R) | 12 | D+3.0 | D+3.3 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | J.D. Scholten (D) vs Steve King (R) | 7 | R+11.9 | R+3.3 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Governor | Billie H. Sutton (D) vs Kristi Noem (R) | 5 | R+3.5 | R+3.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) vs Duncan Hunter (R) | 4 | R+7.8 | R+3.4 | ✓ |
| Montana Senate | Jon Tester (D) vs Matt Rosendale (R) | 14 | D+1.4 | D+3.5 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Governor | Edward Lamont (D) vs Robert Stefanowski (R) | 8 | D+2.0 | D+3.7 | ✓ |
| Ohio Governor | Richard Cordray (D) vs Mike DeWine (R) | 15 | R+1.4 | R+3.7 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Elissa Slotkin (D) vs Mike Bishop (R) | 6 | R+2.5 | D+3.8 | ✗ |
| Nevada Governor | Steve Sisolak (D) vs Adam Paul Laxalt (R) | 17 | R+4.2 | D+4.1 | ✗ |
| California House | Katie Porter (D) vs Mimi Walters (R) | 7 | R+3.6 | D+4.1 | ✗ |
| Minnesota House | Collin Peterson (D) vs Dave Hughes (R) | 1 | D+14.6 | D+4.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Ronald A. DiNicola (D) vs Mike Kelly (R) | 3 | R+5.5 | R+4.3 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Aftab Pureval (D) vs Steve Chabot (R) | 5 | R+9.4 | R+4.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Josh Harder (D) vs Jeff Denham (R) | 2 | R+1.0 | D+4.5 | ✗ |
| Michigan House | Matt Longjohn (D) vs Fred Upton (R) | 3 | R+4.7 | R+4.5 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Kathleen Williams (D) vs Greg Gianforte (R) | 7 | R+7.9 | R+4.6 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Hiral Tipirneni (D) vs Debbie Lesko (R) | 5 | R+8.4 | R+4.7 | ✓ |
| New York House | Nate McMurray (D) vs Chris Collins (R) | 5 | R+5.5 | D+4.8 | ✗ |
| Washington House | Kim Schrier (D) vs Dino Rossi (R) | 3 | R+4.2 | D+4.8 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | Lauren Underwood (D) vs Randy Hultgren (R) | 2 | R+1.5 | D+5.0 | ✗ |
| New Jersey House | Tom Malinowski (D) vs Leonard Lance (R) | 4 | R+0.7 | D+5.0 | ✗ |
| Nevada Senate | Jacky Rosen (D) vs Dean Heller (R) | 18 | R+2.8 | D+5.0 | ✗ |
| Iowa House | Abby Finkenauer (D) vs Rod Blum (R) | 6 | D+4.4 | D+5.1 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Lizzie Fletcher (D) vs John Abney Culberson (R) | 3 | R+5.7 | D+5.1 | ✗ |
| Kansas Governor | Laura Kelly (D) vs Kris W. Kobach (R) | 8 | R+4.7 | D+5.1 | ✗ |
| Washington House | Carolyn Long (D) vs Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) | 2 | R+8.0 | R+5.3 | ✓ |
| California House | Andrew Janz (D) vs Devin Nunes (R) | 4 | R+10.4 | R+5.4 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Linda Coleman (D) vs George Holding (R) | 2 | R+11.4 | R+5.5 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Angie Craig (D) vs Jason Lewis (R) | 6 | D+3.7 | D+5.5 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Joe Radinovich (D) vs Pete Stauber (R) | 3 | R+12.6 | R+5.5 | ✓ |
| New York House | Tracy Mitrano (D) vs Thomas Reed (R) | 1 | R+3.3 | R+5.7 | ✓ |
| Missouri Senate | Claire McCaskill (D) vs Josh Hawley (R) | 23 | R+4.9 | R+5.8 | ✓ |
| Indiana Senate | Joe Donnelly (D) vs Mike Braun (R) | 17 | R+2.4 | R+5.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Donna E. Shalala (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) | 6 | D+1.5 | D+6.0 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Kathy Manning (D) vs Ted Budd (R) | 4 | R+4.6 | R+6.0 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Kristen Carlson (D) vs Ross Spano (R) | 7 | R+6.6 | R+6.0 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Brendan Kelly (D) vs Mike Bost (R) | 3 | R+10.7 | R+6.2 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Clarke Tucker (D) vs French Hill (R) | 1 | R+18.3 | R+6.3 | ✓ |
| Oregon Governor | Kate Brown (D) vs Knute C. Buehler (R) | 7 | D+1.5 | D+6.4 | ✓ |
| Michigan Senate | Debbie Stabenow (D) vs John James (R) | 21 | D+9.4 | D+6.5 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Colin Allred (D) vs Pete Sessions (R) | 4 | R+1.6 | D+6.5 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Leslie Cockburn (D) vs Denver Riggleman (R) | 2 | R+6.2 | R+6.5 | ✓ |
| Alaska House | Alyse S. Galvin (D) vs Don Young (R) | 6 | R+7.3 | R+6.6 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Haley Stevens (D) vs Lena Epstein (R) | 5 | R+0.4 | D+6.7 | ✗ |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jim Renacci (R) | 14 | D+8.8 | D+6.8 | ✓ |
| Alaska Governor | Mark Begich (D) vs Mike Dunleavy (R) | 6 | R+15.4 | R+7.0 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | Molly M. Kelly (D) vs Chris Sununu (R) | 7 | R+10.9 | R+7.0 | ✓ |
| California House | Harley Rouda (D) vs Dana Rohrabacher (R) | 5 | R+7.9 | D+7.1 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | Sean Casten (D) vs Peter J. Roskam (R) | 3 | R+3.0 | D+7.2 | ✗ |
| Texas House | Todd Litton (D) vs Dan Crenshaw (R) | 1 | R+14.9 | R+7.3 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Jeff Van Drew (D) vs Seth Grossman (R) | 2 | D+14.4 | D+7.7 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Tom O'Halleran (D) vs Wendy J. Rogers (R) | 4 | R+3.2 | D+7.7 | ✗ |
| Maine Governor | Janet T. Mills (D) vs Shawn H. Moody (R) | 5 | D+10.0 | D+7.7 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Diane Mitsch Bush (D) vs Scott Tipton (R) | 2 | R+13.5 | R+8.0 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Governor | James Emerson Smith (D) vs Henry McMaster (R) | 3 | R+24.4 | R+8.0 | ✓ |
| New York House | Antonio Delgado (D) vs John J. Faso (R) | 5 | R+2.7 | D+8.1 | ✗ |
| Nevada House | Steven A. Horsford (D) vs Cresent Hardy (R) | 3 | R+1.0 | D+8.2 | ✗ |
| California House | Jessica Morse (D) vs Tom McClintock (R) | 1 | R+8.3 | R+8.3 | ✓ |
| California Senate | Dianne Feinstein (D) vs Kevin de León (R) | 14 | D+11.3 | D+8.3 | ✓ |
| New York House | Max N. Rose (D) vs Dan Donovan (R) | 1 | R+7.1 | D+8.5 | ✗ |
| New Hampshire House | Chris Pappas (D) vs Eddie Edwards (R) | 7 | D+5.9 | D+8.6 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Lauren Baer (D) vs Brian Mast (R) | 4 | R+11.9 | R+8.6 | ✓ |
| California House | Katie Hill (D) vs Stephen Knight (R) | 3 | R+7.3 | D+8.7 | ✗ |
| Nevada House | Susie Lee (D) vs Danny Tarkanian (R) | 2 | D+2.8 | D+9.1 | ✓ |
| Florida House | David Shapiro (D) vs Vern Buchanan (R) | 3 | R+10.9 | R+9.1 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Matt Cartwright (D) vs John Chrin (R) | 2 | D+10.8 | D+9.3 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs Lea Marquez Peterson (R) | 1 | D+7.2 | D+9.5 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Lisa Brown (D) vs Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) | 1 | R+8.8 | R+9.5 | ✓ |
| Michigan Governor | Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs Bill Schuette (R) | 22 | D+7.1 | D+9.6 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Sharice Davids (D) vs Kevin Yoder (R) | 5 | D+4.9 | D+9.7 | ✓ |
| New York House | Tedra Cobb (D) vs Elise M. Stefanik (R) | 1 | R+16.9 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Susan Wild (D) vs Martin W. Nothstein (R) | 4 | D+4.2 | D+10.0 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Anita Malik (D) vs David Schweikert (R) | 1 | R+18.3 | R+10.4 | ✓ |
| Colorado Governor | Jared Polis (D) vs Walker Stapleton (R) | 5 | D+4.6 | D+10.6 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Senate | Phil Bredesen (D) vs Marsha Blackburn (R) | 20 | R+8.5 | R+10.8 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Senate | Tammy Baldwin (D) vs Leah Vukmir (R) | 9 | D+8.2 | D+10.8 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Senate | Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs Kevin Cramer (R) | 6 | R+16.0 | R+10.8 | ✓ |
| West Virginia House | Talley Sergent (D) vs Alexander X. Mooney (R) | 2 | R+12.4 | R+11.0 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Dan Kohl (D) vs Glenn Grothman (R) | 2 | R+18.6 | R+11.0 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Senate | Robert Menendez (D) vs Bob Hugin (R) | 15 | D+6.8 | D+11.2 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Jason Crow (D) vs Mike Coffman (R) | 5 | D+2.5 | D+11.2 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Governor | Tim Walz (D) vs Jeff Johnson (R) | 9 | D+7.2 | D+11.4 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Dean Phillips (D) vs Erik Paulsen (R) | 3 | D+4.2 | D+11.4 | ✓ |
| Maryland Governor | Ben Jealous (D) vs Larry Hogan (R) | 4 | R+24.1 | R+11.8 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Governor | Drew Edmondson (D) vs Kevin Stitt (R) | 6 | R+10.6 | R+12.1 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Dave Loebsack (D) vs Christopher Peters (R) | 3 | D+11.9 | D+12.2 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Randy Bryce (D) vs Bryan Steil (R) | 3 | R+5.0 | R+12.3 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Rob Davidson (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R) | 1 | R+11.1 | R+12.3 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Jennifer T. Wexton (D) vs Barbara J. Comstock (R) | 9 | D+5.1 | D+12.4 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Conor Lamb (D) vs Keith J. Rothfus (R) | 1 | D+9.8 | D+12.5 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Nancy Soderberg (D) vs Michael Waltz (R) | 2 | R+3.4 | R+12.6 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Matt Morgan (D) vs Jack Bergman (R) | 1 | R+16.4 | R+12.6 | ✓ |
| West Virginia House | Richard Neece Ojeda (D) vs Carol Miller (R) | 6 | R+8.6 | R+12.8 | ✓ |
| California House | Mike Levin (D) vs Diane L. Harkey (R) | 5 | D+5.9 | D+12.8 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Liz Watson (D) vs Trey Hollingsworth (R) | 1 | R+10.8 | R+13.0 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) vs Lou Barletta (R) | 9 | D+10.9 | D+13.1 | ✓ |
| Mississippi Senate | Mike Espy (D) vs Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | 6 | R+17.2 | R+13.1 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Kurt Schrader (D) vs Mark Callahan (R) | 1 | R+25.1 | D+13.2 | ✗ |
| Texas Governor | Lupe Valdez (D) vs Greg Abbott (R) | 16 | R+22.1 | R+13.3 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Ann McLane Kuster (D) vs Steven Negron (R) | 6 | D+14.2 | D+13.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Susan Moran Palmer (D) vs Anthony Gonzalez (R) | 1 | R+14.2 | R+13.5 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Dee Thornton (D) vs Susan W. Brooks (R) | 1 | R+8.6 | R+13.5 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Josh Gottheimer (D) vs John McCann (R) | 1 | D+11.9 | D+13.7 | ✓ |
| Arizona Governor | David Garcia (D) vs Doug Ducey (R) | 27 | R+18.6 | R+14.2 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Governor | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 8 | D+7.2 | D+14.4 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Mikie Sherrill (D) vs Jay Webber (R) | 3 | D+4.3 | D+14.6 | ✓ |
| Vermont Governor | Christine Hallquist (D) vs Phil Scott (R) | 3 | R+17.1 | R+14.9 | ✓ |
| California House | Jim Costa (D) vs Elizabeth Heng (R) | 1 | D+11.0 | D+15.1 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Gina M. Raimondo (D) vs Allan W. Fung (R) | 4 | D+6.5 | D+15.5 | ✓ |
| Illinois Governor | J.B. Pritzker (D) vs Bruce Rauner (R) | 6 | D+14.7 | D+15.7 | ✓ |
| Virginia Senate | Tim Kaine (D) vs Corey Stewart (R) | 1 | D+17.6 | D+16.0 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Darren Soto (D) vs Wayne Liebnitzky (R) | 1 | D+7.9 | D+16.0 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Jill Schiller (D) vs Brad Wenstrup (R) | 1 | R+16.8 | R+16.4 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Clint Koble (D) vs Mark E. Amodei (R) | 2 | R+20.5 | R+16.5 | ✓ |
| Washington Senate | Maria Cantwell (D) vs Susan Hutchison (R) | 1 | D+14.7 | D+16.9 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) vs Greg Walden (R) | 1 | R+11.0 | R+16.9 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Thomas W. Wolf (D) vs Scott R. Wagner (R) | 9 | D+14.8 | D+17.1 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Shireen Ghorbani (D) vs Chris Stewart (R) | 1 | R+28.2 | R+17.2 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Senate | Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Jim Newberger (R) | 18 | D+15.4 | D+17.4 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Senate | Christopher Murphy (D) vs Matthew Corey (R) | 4 | D+17.8 | D+17.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Ken Harbaugh (D) vs Bob Gibbs (R) | 3 | R+16.4 | R+17.5 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Jess King (D) vs Lloyd K. Smucker (R) | 2 | R+9.7 | R+17.9 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Sara Dady (D) vs Adam Kinzinger (R) | 1 | R+17.6 | R+18.3 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | Tim Gilpin (D) vs Kevin Hern (R) | 1 | R+27.2 | R+18.6 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | James A. Thompson (D) vs Ron Estes (R) | 2 | R+32.2 | R+18.9 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Senate | Jane Raybould (D) vs Deb Fischer (R) | 1 | R+24.1 | R+19.1 | ✓ |
| Alabama Governor | Walter Maddox (D) vs Kay Ivey (R) | 2 | R+27.9 | R+19.1 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Denny Wolff (D) vs Dan Meuser (R) | 1 | R+24.8 | R+19.5 | ✓ |
| New York House | Joseph D. Morelle (D) vs Jim Maxwell (R) | 2 | D+10.7 | D+20.7 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Jessica McClure (D) vs Jeff Fortenberry (R) | 1 | R+21.6 | R+20.7 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Mary Barzee Flores (D) vs Mario Diaz-Balart (R) | 1 | R+8.9 | R+20.9 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Governor | Karl F. Dean (D) vs Bill Lee (R) | 17 | R+19.7 | R+21.0 | ✓ |
| Idaho Governor | Paulette E. Jordan (D) vs Brad Little (R) | 1 | R+21.9 | R+21.6 | ✓ |
| Delaware Senate | Thomas R. Carper (D) vs Rob Arlett (R) | 1 | D+36.0 | D+22.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Debra A. Haaland (D) vs Janice E. Arnold-Jones (R) | 4 | D+9.0 | D+22.8 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Senate | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs Bob Flanders (R) | 4 | D+20.5 | D+23.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Senate | Martin Heinrich (D) vs Mick Rich (R) | 8 | D+18.5 | D+23.6 | ✓ |
| California Governor | Gavin Newsom (D) vs John Cox (R) | 22 | D+15.1 | D+23.9 | ✓ |
| New York Governor | Andrew Cuomo (D) vs Marcus Molinaro (R) | 5 | D+15.0 | D+24.0 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Senate | Elizabeth Warren (D) vs Geoff Diehl (R) | 6 | D+24.4 | D+24.2 | ✓ |
| South Dakota House | Tim Bjorkman (D) vs Dusty Johnson (R) | 3 | R+20.5 | R+24.3 | ✓ |
| Florida House | David Holden (D) vs Francis Rooney (R) | 1 | R+10.5 | R+24.6 | ✓ |
| North Dakota House | Mac Schneider (D) vs Kelly Armstrong (R) | 5 | R+26.0 | R+24.6 | ✓ |
| Maine Senate | Zak Ringelstein (D) vs Eric L. Brakey (R) | 4 | R+34.1 | R+24.8 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs Mark Holbrook (R) | 2 | D+19.9 | D+26.3 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) vs Scott Walker (R) | 1 | D+26.6 | D+28.8 | ✓ |
| Hawaii Governor | David Y. Ige (D) vs Andria P. L. Tupola (R) | 1 | D+22.6 | D+29.0 | ✓ |
| West Virginia House | Kendra Fershee (D) vs David B. McKinley (R) | 2 | R+30.4 | R+29.1 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | Mary Brannon (D) vs Tom Cole (R) | 1 | R+36.3 | R+30.1 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Vanessa Adia (D) vs Kay Granger (R) | 1 | R+34.1 | R+30.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Janet Garrett (D) vs Jim Jordan (R) | 1 | R+28.4 | R+30.5 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Chuck Enderlin (D) vs Drew Ferguson (R) | 1 | R+35.9 | R+31.1 | ✓ |
| Utah Senate | Jenny Wilson (D) vs Mitt Romney (R) | 1 | R+41.8 | R+31.7 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Jerald Steve McFall (R) | 2 | D+19.1 | D+32.2 | ✓ |
| New York Senate | Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) vs Chele Farley (R) | 4 | D+25.6 | D+33.4 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Governor | Jay M. Gonzalez (D) vs Charles D. Baker (R) | 6 | R+45.7 | R+33.5 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Governor | Jared K. Henderson (D) vs Asa Hutchinson (R) | 2 | R+37.5 | R+33.6 | ✓ |
| Wyoming House | Greg Hunter (D) vs Liz Cheney (R) | 1 | R+32.8 | R+33.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Jennifer M. Zimmerman (D) vs Matt Gaetz (R) | 1 | R+35.0 | R+34.1 | ✓ |
| Maryland Senate | Benjamin L. Cardin (D) vs Tony Campbell (R) | 2 | D+28.7 | D+34.5 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | Jason Nichols (D) vs Markwayne Mullin (R) | 1 | R+19.7 | R+34.9 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Dina Titus (D) vs Joyce Bentley (R) | 2 | D+25.7 | D+35.3 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Alan LaPolice (D) vs Roger Marshall (R) | 5 | R+21.8 | R+36.3 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Lee Castillo (D) vs Rob Bishop (R) | 1 | R+35.6 | R+36.7 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Senate | Gary Trauner (D) vs John Barrasso (R) | 1 | R+37.3 | R+36.9 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | David Brill (D) vs Paul Gosar (R) | 1 | R+33.6 | R+37.7 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Governor | Mary Throne (D) vs Mark Gordon (R) | 1 | R+40.7 | R+39.6 | ✓ |
| Vermont Senate | Lawrence Zupan (D) vs Lawrence Zupan (R) | 3 | D+38.6 | D+39.9 | ✓ |
| Utah House | James Singer (D) vs John Curtis (R) | 1 | R+54.0 | R+40.2 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Brent Ottaway (D) vs John Joyce (R) | 1 | R+24.1 | R+41.0 | ✓ |
| Vermont House | Peter Welch (D) vs Anya Tynio (R) | 2 | D+30.1 | D+43.3 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | Frankie Robbins (D) vs Frank D. Lucas (R) | 1 | R+33.5 | R+47.8 | ✓ |