Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2016, the model called 151/168 of these races right (90%) using only pre-2016 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 178 | D+3.4 | D+2.2 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Senate | Maggie Hassan (D) vs Kelly Ayotte (R) | 31 | D+1.0 | D+0.1 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Governor | Roy A. Cooper (D) vs Pat McCrory (R) | 33 | D+1.6 | D+0.2 | ✓ |
| Michigan President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 37 | D+4.2 | R+0.2 | ✗ |
| New Hampshire President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 36 | D+6.4 | D+0.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Doug Applegate (D) vs Darrell Issa (R) | 3 | R+6.0 | R+0.5 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Richard M. Nolan (D) vs Stewart Mills (R) | 2 | R+0.8 | D+0.6 | ✗ |
| Pennsylvania President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 56 | D+4.8 | R+0.7 | ✗ |
| Wisconsin President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 27 | D+4.8 | R+0.8 | ✗ |
| Nebraska House | Brad Ashford (D) vs Don Bacon (R) | 3 | R+3.0 | R+1.2 | ✓ |
| Florida President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 67 | D+0.3 | R+1.2 | ✗ |
| Nevada House | Jacky Rosen (D) vs Danny Tarkanian (R) | 4 | R+2.1 | D+1.3 | ✗ |
| New Hampshire House | Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs Frank C. Guinta (R) | 7 | D+4.8 | D+1.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Kathleen Alana McGinty (D) vs Patrick J. Toomey (R) | 41 | D+1.7 | R+1.4 | ✗ |
| Minnesota President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 13 | D+7.8 | D+1.5 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Angie Craig (D) vs Jason Lewis (R) | 5 | R+0.4 | R+1.8 | ✓ |
| N2 President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 2 | R+7.9 | R+2.2 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | Colin Van Ostern (D) vs Chris Sununu (R) | 23 | D+2.9 | R+2.3 | ✗ |
| California House | Ami Bera (D) vs Scott Jones (R) | 3 | D+5.0 | D+2.3 | ✓ |
| Nevada President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 42 | D+0.5 | D+2.4 | ✓ |
| Nevada Senate | Catherine Cortez Masto (D) vs Joseph J. Heck (R) | 33 | D+0.9 | D+2.4 | ✓ |
| Missouri Senate | Jason Kander (D) vs Roy Blunt (R) | 14 | R+0.8 | R+2.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Stephanie Murphy (D) vs John L. Mica (R) | 5 | R+5.8 | D+3.0 | ✗ |
| Maine President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 13 | D+7.3 | D+3.0 | ✓ |
| New York House | Zephyr R. Teachout (D) vs John J. Faso (R) | 5 | R+3.1 | R+3.2 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Senate | Russ Feingold (D) vs Ron Johnson (R) | 19 | D+1.8 | R+3.4 | ✗ |
| California House | Michael Eggman (D) vs Jeff Denham (R) | 2 | R+1.6 | R+3.4 | ✓ |
| Arizona President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 31 | R+4.8 | R+3.5 | ✓ |
| North Carolina President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 55 | D+0.9 | R+3.7 | ✗ |
| New York House | Kim A. Myers (D) vs Claudia Tenney (R) | 2 | R+6.0 | R+3.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Charlie Crist (D) vs David W. Jolly (R) | 9 | D+4.5 | D+3.8 | ✓ |
| Montana Governor | Steve Bullock (D) vs Greg Gianforte (R) | 4 | D+2.3 | D+3.9 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Ruben J. Kihuen (D) vs Cresent Hardy (R) | 1 | R+1.6 | D+4.0 | ✗ |
| New Jersey House | Josh Gottheimer (D) vs Scott Garrett (R) | 2 | D+1.7 | D+4.4 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Ann McLane Kuster (D) vs Jim Lawrence (R) | 5 | D+17.9 | D+4.4 | ✓ |
| Colorado President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 35 | D+3.2 | D+4.9 | ✓ |
| Georgia President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 32 | R+5.9 | R+5.1 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Brad Schneider (D) vs Robert Dold (R) | 3 | D+0.5 | D+5.2 | ✓ |
| Virginia President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 39 | D+6.9 | D+5.3 | ✓ |
| Missouri Governor | Chris Koster (D) vs Eric Greitens (R) | 15 | D+1.9 | R+5.6 | ✗ |
| Colorado Senate | Michael Bennet (D) vs Darryl Glenn (R) | 22 | D+8.2 | D+5.7 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Senate | Deborah K. Ross (D) vs Richard Burr (R) | 44 | R+2.1 | R+5.7 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | LuAnn L. Bennett (D) vs Barbara J. Comstock (R) | 2 | R+2.9 | R+5.8 | ✓ |
| Indiana Governor | John R. Gregg (D) vs Eric Joseph Holcomb (R) | 9 | D+1.1 | R+6.0 | ✗ |
| California House | Bryan Caforio (D) vs Stephen Knight (R) | 1 | R+5.1 | R+6.3 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Governor | James Justice (D) vs William Paul Cole (R) | 6 | R+1.5 | D+6.8 | ✗ |
| California House | Salud Carbajal (D) vs Justin Donald Fareed (R) | 1 | R+6.4 | D+6.8 | ✗ |
| Oregon Governor | Kate Brown (D) vs William C. Pierce (R) | 8 | D+9.3 | D+7.2 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Tom O'Halleran (D) vs Paul Babeu (R) | 3 | D+4.8 | D+7.3 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Monica Vernon (D) vs Rod Blum (R) | 7 | R+8.9 | R+7.7 | ✓ |
| Florida Senate | Patrick Murphy (D) vs Marco Rubio (R) | 50 | R+6.7 | R+7.7 | ✓ |
| Ohio President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 47 | R+2.9 | R+8.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 17 | D+5.4 | D+8.2 | ✓ |
| Vermont Governor | Sue M. Minter (D) vs Phil Scott (R) | 5 | R+5.8 | R+8.7 | ✓ |
| Washington Governor | Jay Robert Inslee (D) vs Bill Ray Bryant (R) | 7 | D+7.9 | D+8.8 | ✓ |
| Texas President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 22 | R+12.0 | R+9.0 | ✓ |
| Iowa President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Ted Cruz (R) | 17 | R+6.4 | R+9.4 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Emily Ann Cain (D) vs Bruce Poliquin (R) | 5 | R+2.3 | R+9.6 | ✓ |
| Indiana Senate | Evan Bayh (D) vs Todd Young (R) | 10 | R+4.7 | R+9.7 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Scott Fuhrman (D) vs Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) | 1 | R+14.4 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | Anna Throne-Holst (D) vs Lee M. Zeldin (R) | 2 | R+21.7 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| M2 President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 10 | R+2.2 | R+10.3 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Randy Perkins (D) vs Brian Mast (R) | 2 | R+6.8 | R+10.5 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Jay Sidie (D) vs Kevin Yoder (R) | 2 | R+8.4 | R+10.7 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Christina Marie Hartman (D) vs Lloyd K. Smucker (R) | 1 | R+9.2 | R+10.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Peter Jacob (D) vs Leonard Lance (R) | 1 | R+2.9 | R+11.0 | ✓ |
| Oregon President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 13 | D+8.2 | D+11.0 | ✓ |
| Delaware President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 7 | D+14.4 | D+11.4 | ✓ |
| New York House | Thomas Suozzi (D) vs Jack M. Martins (R) | 4 | D+6.4 | D+11.7 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Joe Garcia (D) vs Carlos Curbelo (R) | 1 | R+2.0 | R+11.8 | ✓ |
| California House | Pete Aguilar (D) vs Paul Chabot (R) | 1 | D+1.1 | D+12.1 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Scott A. Angelle (D) vs Clay Higgins (R) | 1 | D+7.3 | D+12.2 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Doug Owens (D) vs Mia B. Love (R) | 5 | R+15.4 | R+12.4 | ✓ |
| Arizona Senate | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs John McCain (R) | 17 | R+12.8 | R+13.0 | ✓ |
| New York House | Colleen Deacon (D) vs John Katko (R) | 2 | R+24.1 | R+13.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 6 | D+14.5 | D+13.6 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Shelli Yoder (D) vs Trey Hollingsworth (R) | 4 | R+6.0 | R+13.7 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Terri Bonoff (D) vs Erik Paulsen (R) | 3 | R+8.3 | R+13.7 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Jim Mowrer (D) vs David Young (R) | 4 | R+9.9 | R+13.7 | ✓ |
| Georgia Senate | Jim Barksdale (D) vs Johnny Isakson (R) | 20 | R+13.4 | R+13.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Matthew G. Heinz (D) vs Martha McSally (R) | 1 | R+22.1 | R+13.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 11 | D+15.2 | D+14.1 | ✓ |
| South Carolina President | Marco Rubio (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 10 | R+9.9 | R+14.3 | ✓ |
| Alaska House | Steve Lindbeck (D) vs Don Young (R) | 2 | R+9.0 | R+14.3 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Senate | Jim Gray (D) vs Rand Paul (R) | 4 | R+12.4 | R+14.6 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) vs Hans Reigle (R) | 1 | D+18.0 | D+14.6 | ✓ |
| Alaska President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 9 | R+8.1 | R+14.7 | ✓ |
| M1 President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 7 | D+12.3 | D+14.8 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Lon Johnson (D) vs Jack Bergman (R) | 3 | R+4.5 | R+14.8 | ✓ |
| Illinois Senate | Tammy Duckworth (D) vs Mark Kirk (R) | 10 | D+13.1 | D+15.1 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 4 | D+14.1 | D+15.5 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Denise Juneau (D) vs Ryan K. Zinke (R) | 4 | R+15.6 | R+15.6 | ✓ |
| Washington President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 15 | D+14.9 | D+15.7 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs Mark Holbrook (R) | 2 | D+32.5 | D+16.1 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Jane DeSimone Dittmar (D) vs Thomas A. Garrett (R) | 2 | R+13.6 | R+16.7 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Suzanna Shkreli (D) vs Mike Bishop (R) | 3 | R+17.2 | R+16.9 | ✓ |
| Illinois President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 22 | D+20.0 | D+17.1 | ✓ |
| Mississippi President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 6 | R+15.0 | R+17.8 | ✓ |
| Washington Senate | Patty Murray (D) vs Chris Vance (R) | 8 | D+18.3 | D+18.0 | ✓ |
| Utah President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 22 | R+12.3 | R+18.1 | ✓ |
| Missouri President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 24 | R+12.7 | R+18.6 | ✓ |
| Delaware Governor | John C. Carney Jr. (D) vs Colin R. J. Bonini (R) | 3 | D+20.1 | D+19.1 | ✓ |
| Indiana President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 16 | R+16.4 | R+19.2 | ✓ |
| Louisiana President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 15 | R+16.8 | R+19.6 | ✓ |
| Montana President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 8 | R+21.5 | R+20.4 | ✓ |
| South Carolina House | Francis Person (D) vs Mick Mulvaney (R) | 1 | R+25.7 | R+20.5 | ✓ |
| Kansas President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 11 | R+18.0 | R+20.6 | ✓ |
| N1 President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 1 | R+26.9 | R+20.7 | ✓ |
| Ohio Senate | Ted Strickland (D) vs Rob Portman (R) | 31 | R+17.7 | R+20.9 | ✓ |
| Louisiana Senate | Foster L. Campbell (D) vs John Kennedy (R) | 6 | R+25.3 | R+21.3 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | David H. Cole (D) vs Frank A. LoBiondo (R) | 1 | R+30.3 | R+22.0 | ✓ |
| California House | Ro Khanna (D) vs Michael M. Honda (R) | 1 | R+0.9 | D+22.0 | ✗ |
| Connecticut Senate | Richard Blumenthal (D) vs Dan Carter (R) | 2 | D+25.2 | D+23.1 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Patricia Carpenter McCracken (D) vs Rick W. Allen (R) | 1 | R+18.0 | R+23.2 | ✓ |
| California Senate | Kamala Harris (D) vs Loretta Sanchez (R) | 15 | D+21.2 | D+23.2 | ✓ |
| Oregon Senate | Ron Wyden (D) vs Mark Callahan (R) | 4 | D+26.0 | D+23.3 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Senate | Conner W. Eldridge (D) vs John Boozman (R) | 6 | R+19.9 | R+23.6 | ✓ |
| New York President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 17 | D+22.4 | D+24.0 | ✓ |
| Iowa Senate | Patty Judge (D) vs Chuck Grassley (R) | 12 | R+21.1 | R+24.4 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Michael H. Romero (R) | 2 | D+13.1 | D+24.8 | ✓ |
| Nebraska President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 7 | R+21.7 | R+25.1 | ✓ |
| Maryland Senate | Chris Van Hollen (D) vs Kathy Szeliga (R) | 4 | D+30.5 | D+25.2 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Tom Nelson (D) vs Mike Gallagher (R) | 1 | R+13.5 | R+25.4 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Merrie Lee Soules (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 2 | R+26.1 | R+25.5 | ✓ |
| Tennessee President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 10 | R+15.8 | R+26.0 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Senate | Thomas Dixon (D) vs Tim Scott (R) | 2 | R+24.4 | R+26.2 | ✓ |
| Vermont President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 8 | D+28.6 | D+26.4 | ✓ |
| Maryland President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 9 | D+29.0 | D+26.4 | ✓ |
| Arkansas President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 10 | R+23.8 | R+26.9 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 14 | D+28.1 | D+27.2 | ✓ |
| Alabama President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 7 | R+22.7 | R+27.7 | ✓ |
| Alabama Senate | Ronald Steven Crumpton (D) vs Richard C. Shelby (R) | 2 | R+25.9 | R+28.1 | ✓ |
| New York House | Mike Derrick (D) vs Elise M. Stefanik (R) | 1 | R+26.3 | R+28.1 | ✓ |
| South Dakota House | Paula Hawks (D) vs Kristi Noem (R) | 2 | R+21.7 | R+28.2 | ✓ |
| Vermont Senate | Patrick J. Leahy (D) vs Scott Milne (R) | 4 | D+38.9 | D+28.2 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Val Demings (D) vs Thuy Lowe (R) | 1 | D+28.6 | D+29.7 | ✓ |
| South Dakota President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 9 | R+22.4 | R+29.8 | ✓ |
| Kentucky President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 8 | R+24.0 | R+29.8 | ✓ |
| Kansas Senate | Patrick Wiesner (D) vs Jerry Moran (R) | 6 | R+28.9 | R+29.9 | ✓ |
| California President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 24 | D+28.8 | D+30.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs Richard Priem (R) | 2 | D+19.9 | D+30.3 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Marshall Jones (D) vs "Mike" Johnson (R) | 1 | R+26.8 | R+30.4 | ✓ |
| Idaho President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 9 | R+24.3 | R+31.8 | ✓ |
| Wyoming House | Ryan Greene (D) vs Liz Cheney (R) | 2 | R+20.9 | R+32.1 | ✓ |
| Hawaii President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 4 | D+22.1 | D+32.2 | ✓ |
| Alaska Senate | Ray Metcalfe (D) vs Lisa Murkowski (R) | 5 | R+29.8 | R+32.7 | ✓ |
| Idaho House | Jennifer Martinez (D) vs Mike Simpson (R) | 1 | R+31.5 | R+33.5 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Ryan A. Solen (D) vs Paul Ryan (R) | 1 | R+25.3 | R+34.7 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Don E. Wilson (D) vs Barry Loudermilk (R) | 1 | R+32.8 | R+34.8 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | James Neal Harris (D) vs Austin Scott (R) | 1 | R+29.3 | R+35.3 | ✓ |
| North Dakota President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 6 | R+25.9 | R+35.7 | ✓ |
| Idaho House | James Piotrowski (D) vs Raúl R. Labrador (R) | 1 | R+24.8 | R+36.4 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 8 | R+29.7 | R+36.4 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Angela Pendley (D) vs Drew Ferguson (R) | 1 | R+33.8 | R+36.7 | ✓ |
| Utah Governor | Mike Weinholtz (D) vs Gary Richard Herbert (R) | 6 | R+33.7 | R+38.0 | ✓ |
| Idaho Senate | Jerry Sturgill (D) vs Mike Crapo (R) | 3 | R+28.9 | R+38.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Lou Correa (D) vs Bao Nguyen (R) | 1 | D+17.1 | D+40.0 | ✓ |
| Utah Senate | Misty Katherine Snow (D) vs Mike Lee (R) | 9 | R+38.8 | R+41.1 | ✓ |
| New York Senate | Charles E. Schumer (D) vs Wendy E. Long (R) | 6 | D+40.9 | D+42.0 | ✓ |
| West Virginia President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 9 | R+29.2 | R+42.1 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Senate | Mike Workman (D) vs James Lankford (R) | 2 | R+30.4 | R+43.2 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Senate | Jay H. Williams (D) vs John R. Thune (R) | 5 | R+34.8 | R+43.7 | ✓ |
| Wyoming President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 5 | R+40.3 | R+46.3 | ✓ |
| Hawaii Senate | Brian Schatz (D) vs John Stanley Carroll (R) | 2 | D+41.2 | D+51.4 | ✓ |
| N3 President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 1 | R+45.1 | R+54.2 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Governor | Marvin E. Nelson (D) vs Doug Burgum (R) | 2 | R+44.3 | R+57.1 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Senate | Eliot Glassheim (D) vs John Hoeven (R) | 2 | R+49.4 | R+61.5 | ✓ |
| DC President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Donald Trump (R) | 3 | D+74.5 | D+86.8 | ✓ |