Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2008, the model called 173/189 of these races right (92%) using only pre-2008 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 205 | D+8.4 | D+7.4 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Senate | Al Franken (D) vs Norm Coleman (R) | 25 | D+0.6 | EVEN | ✓ |
| Missouri President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 31 | D+1.2 | R+0.1 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Tom S. Perriello (D) vs Virgil H. Goode (R) | 3 | R+6.2 | D+0.2 | ✗ |
| North Carolina President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 54 | D+1.2 | D+0.3 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Paul J. Carmouche (D) vs John Fleming (R) | 5 | D+3.6 | R+0.4 | ✗ |
| California House | Charles Duane Brown (D) vs Tom McClintock (R) | 1 | R+8.4 | R+0.5 | ✓ |
| Alabama House | Bobby N. Bright (D) vs Jay Love (R) | 2 | D+3.9 | D+0.6 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs Steve Stivers (R) | 5 | D+7.0 | D+0.8 | ✓ |
| Maryland House | Frank M. Kratovil (D) vs Andy Harris (R) | 2 | EVEN | D+0.8 | ✗ |
| Connecticut House | Jim Himes (D) vs Christopher H. Shays (R) | 5 | R+2.5 | D+0.8 | ✗ |
| Indiana President | Barack Obama (D) vs Barack Obama (R) | 23 | R+2.8 | D+1.0 | ✗ |
| Idaho House | Walt Minnick (D) vs William T. Sali (R) | 5 | D+4.7 | D+1.2 | ✓ |
| N2 President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 1 | R+6.0 | D+1.2 | ✗ |
| Alaska Senate | Mark Begich (D) vs Ted Stevens (R) | 9 | D+5.3 | D+1.2 | ✓ |
| Montana President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 11 | R+3.5 | R+2.3 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Mark Schauer (D) vs Tim Walberg (R) | 2 | D+1.6 | D+2.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Kathy Dahlkemper (D) vs Philip English (R) | 2 | R+0.6 | D+2.5 | ✗ |
| Missouri House | Judy Baker (D) vs Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) | 1 | D+1.3 | R+2.5 | ✗ |
| Florida President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 63 | D+2.6 | D+2.8 | ✓ |
| Georgia Senate | Jim Martin (D) vs Saxby Chambliss (R) | 26 | R+4.5 | R+2.9 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) vs Michele Bachmann (R) | 5 | R+1.5 | R+3.0 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Paul E. Kanjorski (D) vs Lou Barletta (R) | 6 | R+2.0 | D+3.3 | ✗ |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff Merkley (D) vs Gordon H. Smith (R) | 15 | D+3.7 | D+3.4 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Governor | Bev Perdue (D) vs Pat McCrory (R) | 25 | D+1.1 | D+3.4 | ✓ |
| Alabama House | Rolf Parker Griffith (D) vs Wayne Parker (R) | 1 | D+5.1 | D+3.6 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | James D. Esch (D) vs Lee Terry (R) | 1 | R+3.4 | R+3.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Alan Grayson (D) vs Richard Keller (R) | 2 | D+8.3 | D+4.0 | ✓ |
| South Carolina House | Linda Ketner (D) vs Henry E. Brown (R) | 1 | R+4.8 | R+4.0 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | John H. Adler (D) vs Christopher Myers (R) | 5 | D+3.6 | D+4.2 | ✓ |
| Ohio President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 67 | D+4.5 | D+4.6 | ✓ |
| New York House | Alice Kryzan (D) vs Christopher John Lee (R) | 3 | R+8.7 | R+4.7 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Glenn C. Nye (D) vs Thelma D. Drake (R) | 2 | R+6.2 | D+4.9 | ✗ |
| Ohio House | Steven L. Driehaus (D) vs Steve Chabot (R) | 1 | R+3.2 | D+5.0 | ✗ |
| New York House | Eric J. Massa (D) vs John R. Kuhl (R) | 2 | D+5.3 | D+5.0 | ✓ |
| California House | Nicholas Leibham (D) vs Brian P. Bilbray (R) | 2 | R+6.4 | R+5.1 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Bill Foster (D) vs James D. Oberweis (R) | 4 | D+2.4 | D+5.1 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Daniel J. Seals (D) vs Mark Kirk (R) | 3 | R+5.7 | R+5.1 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Dina Titus (D) vs Jon C. Porter (R) | 4 | D+0.2 | D+5.1 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | David E. Boswell (D) vs S. Brett Guthrie (R) | 4 | R+5.9 | R+5.2 | ✓ |
| Alaska House | Ethan Berkowitz (D) vs Don Young (R) | 4 | D+6.6 | R+5.2 | ✗ |
| Georgia President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 23 | R+5.1 | R+5.2 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Darcy Burner (D) vs David G. Reichert (R) | 4 | D+3.0 | R+5.6 | ✗ |
| New Hampshire House | Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs Jeb E. Bradley (R) | 7 | D+6.0 | D+5.9 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Senate | Bruce Lunsford (D) vs Mitch McConnell (R) | 13 | R+5.9 | R+5.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Joe Garcia (D) vs Mario Diaz-Balart (R) | 3 | R+5.6 | R+6.1 | ✓ |
| Virginia President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 54 | D+6.4 | D+6.3 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Senate | Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs John E. Sununu (R) | 22 | D+8.4 | D+6.3 | ✓ |
| Louisiana Senate | Mary L. Landrieu (D) vs John Kennedy (R) | 8 | D+10.4 | D+6.4 | ✓ |
| Washington Governor | Christine Gregoire (D) vs Dino Rossi (R) | 12 | D+4.7 | D+6.5 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Nicholas V. Lampson (D) vs Pete Olson (R) | 3 | R+8.2 | R+7.1 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Victoria Wells Wulsin (D) vs Jean Schmidt (R) | 2 | R+4.5 | R+7.4 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Ashwin Madia (D) vs Erik Paulsen (R) | 4 | R+1.0 | R+7.6 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Donald J. Cazayoux (D) vs Bill Cassidy (R) | 7 | D+8.8 | R+7.8 | ✗ |
| New Jersey House | Linda Stender (D) vs Leonard Lance (R) | 3 | R+2.9 | R+8.0 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Steven L. Kagen (D) vs John G. Gard (R) | 3 | D+3.3 | D+8.1 | ✓ |
| South Dakota President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 6 | R+10.6 | R+8.4 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Senate | Kay R. Hagan (D) vs Elizabeth H. Dole (R) | 33 | D+5.2 | D+8.5 | ✓ |
| Arizona President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 12 | R+6.4 | R+8.5 | ✓ |
| North Dakota President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 5 | R+5.5 | R+8.6 | ✓ |
| Colorado President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 42 | D+7.1 | D+8.9 | ✓ |
| South Carolina President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 9 | R+12.4 | R+9.0 | ✓ |
| Mississippi House | Travis W. Childers (D) vs Greg Davis (R) | 2 | D+2.5 | D+9.1 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Gary C. Peters (D) vs Joseph K. Knollenberg (R) | 4 | D+6.5 | D+9.4 | ✓ |
| Iowa President | Barack Obama (D) vs John Edwards (R) | 14 | D+14.9 | D+9.5 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 30 | D+11.6 | D+9.6 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs Charlie Summers (R) | 2 | D+15.9 | D+9.8 | ✓ |
| Wyoming House | Gary Trauner (D) vs Cynthia M. Lummis (R) | 2 | R+3.4 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| Mississippi Senate | Ronnie Musgrove (D) vs Roger F. Wicker (R) | 6 | D+4.2 | D+9.9 | ✓ |
| Minnesota President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 28 | D+9.9 | D+10.2 | ✓ |
| Colorado Senate | Mark Udall (D) vs Bob Schaffer (R) | 22 | D+12.4 | D+10.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 54 | D+12.0 | D+10.3 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Jill Talbot Derby (D) vs Dean Heller (R) | 1 | R+12.5 | R+10.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Jerry McNerney (D) vs Dean Andal (R) | 1 | D+10.3 | D+10.6 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | John A. Boccieri (D) vs Kirk J. Schuring (R) | 1 | D+6.6 | D+10.7 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Lawrence Webb Kissell (D) vs Robert C. Hayes (R) | 4 | D+5.6 | D+10.8 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | André D. Carson (D) vs Jonathan R. Elrod (R) | 1 | D+16.9 | D+10.9 | ✓ |
| M2 President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 1 | D+19.4 | D+11.3 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Martin Heinrich (D) vs Darren White (R) | 3 | D+4.1 | D+11.3 | ✓ |
| PR Governor | Aníbal Acevedo-Vilá (D) vs Aníbal Acevedo-Vilá (R) | 1 | D+3.3 | D+11.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Jason Altmire (D) vs Melissa A. Hart (R) | 2 | D+10.7 | D+11.7 | ✓ |
| Texas President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs Barack Obama (R) | 6 | R+13.7 | R+11.8 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Harry Teague (D) vs Edward R. Tinsley (R) | 1 | D+3.3 | D+11.9 | ✓ |
| Texas Senate | Rick Noriega (D) vs John Cornyn (R) | 4 | R+11.5 | R+12.0 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Bob Lord (D) vs John B. Shadegg (R) | 1 | R+1.7 | R+12.0 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Betsy Markey (D) vs Marilyn N. Musgrave (R) | 1 | D+5.7 | D+12.4 | ✓ |
| Nevada President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 30 | D+5.2 | D+12.5 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Christopher P. Carney (D) vs Christopher Hackett (R) | 4 | D+14.1 | D+12.7 | ✓ |
| New York House | Daniel B. Maffei (D) vs Dale A. Sweetland (R) | 1 | D+15.1 | D+12.9 | ✓ |
| West Virginia President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 16 | R+8.0 | R+13.1 | ✓ |
| Mississippi President | Barack Obama (D) vs Hillary Rodham Clinton (R) | 5 | R+12.4 | R+13.2 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Michael Peter Skelly (D) vs John Abney Culberson (R) | 3 | R+5.7 | R+13.5 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 20 | D+14.0 | D+13.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Senate | Frank R. Lautenberg (D) vs Dick Zimmer (R) | 16 | D+17.8 | D+14.1 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | James Marshall (D) vs Richard N. Goddard (R) | 2 | D+8.6 | D+14.5 | ✓ |
| Nebraska President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 3 | R+21.8 | R+14.9 | ✓ |
| Kansas President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 8 | R+17.5 | R+15.0 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Paul W. Hodes (D) vs Jennifer M. Horn (R) | 7 | D+20.9 | D+15.0 | ✓ |
| Tennessee President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 7 | R+14.5 | R+15.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 18 | D+9.4 | D+15.1 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Senate | Bob Conley (D) vs Lindsey Graham (R) | 5 | R+15.7 | R+15.3 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Michael A. Montagano (D) vs Mark Edward Souder (R) | 4 | R+3.4 | R+15.3 | ✓ |
| New Jersey President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 18 | D+17.0 | D+15.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | John P. Murtha (D) vs William Russell (R) | 3 | R+1.3 | D+15.7 | ✗ |
| Florida House | Annette Taddeo (D) vs Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) | 2 | R+8.8 | R+15.7 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Raul L. Martinez (D) vs Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) | 2 | R+11.7 | R+15.8 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Kurt Schrader (D) vs Mike Erickson (R) | 2 | D+19.9 | D+15.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Suzanne M. Kosmas (D) vs Tom Feeney (R) | 2 | D+16.5 | D+16.1 | ✓ |
| Kentucky President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 10 | R+13.8 | R+16.2 | ✓ |
| Oregon President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 18 | D+15.7 | D+16.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Sharen Swartz Neuhardt (D) vs Steven Austria (R) | 1 | R+21.3 | R+16.4 | ✓ |
| Michigan President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 32 | D+14.5 | D+16.5 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Dennis Moore (D) vs Nick Jordan (R) | 1 | D+10.9 | D+16.8 | ✓ |
| Washington President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 14 | D+16.5 | D+17.2 | ✓ |
| Maine President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 12 | D+15.8 | D+17.3 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Senate | Scott Kleeb (D) vs Mike Johanns (R) | 2 | R+16.7 | R+17.5 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Senate | Andrew Rice (D) vs James M. Inhofe (R) | 15 | R+15.7 | R+17.5 | ✓ |
| Indiana Governor | Jill Long Thompson (D) vs Mitchell Daniels, Jr. (R) | 11 | R+18.9 | R+17.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Christine L. Jennings (D) vs Vern Buchanan (R) | 4 | R+15.5 | R+18.1 | ✓ |
| Louisiana President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 6 | R+9.8 | R+18.6 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | John Yarmuth (D) vs Anne Meagher Northup (R) | 3 | D+15.4 | D+18.7 | ✓ |
| Missouri Governor | Jay Nixon (D) vs Kenny Hulshof (R) | 8 | D+18.7 | D+18.9 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Baron P. Hill (D) vs Mike Sodrel (R) | 3 | D+14.9 | D+19.4 | ✓ |
| Arkansas President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 6 | R+11.2 | R+19.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | David Kurkowski (D) vs Frank A. LoBiondo (R) | 1 | R+32.7 | R+20.0 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Tim Mahoney (D) vs Thomas J. Rooney (R) | 3 | R+4.1 | R+20.2 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Becky Greenwald (D) vs Tom Latham (R) | 1 | R+19.1 | R+21.1 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Bob Hackworth (D) vs Charles William Young (R) | 1 | R+17.2 | R+21.4 | ✓ |
| Alaska President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 11 | R+13.2 | R+21.5 | ✓ |
| Alabama President | Barack Obama (D) vs Hillary Rodham Clinton (R) | 10 | R+23.6 | R+21.6 | ✓ |
| Connecticut President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 6 | D+22.2 | D+22.4 | ✓ |
| Missouri House | Kay Waldo Barnes (D) vs Sam Graves (R) | 3 | R+13.8 | R+22.6 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Senate | Tom Udall (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 14 | D+17.6 | D+22.7 | ✓ |
| Maine Senate | Thomas H. Allen (D) vs Susan M. Collins (R) | 11 | R+14.8 | R+22.8 | ✓ |
| M1 President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 1 | D+27.0 | D+22.8 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | Karen M. Hartley-Nagle (D) vs Michael N. Castle (R) | 2 | R+34.8 | R+23.1 | ✓ |
| Idaho Senate | Larry LaRocco (D) vs James E. Risch (R) | 3 | R+19.6 | R+23.6 | ✓ |
| Kansas Senate | Jim Slattery (D) vs Pat Roberts (R) | 8 | R+22.7 | R+23.6 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Deborah Halvorson (D) vs Marty Ozinga (R) | 5 | D+13.0 | D+23.9 | ✓ |
| North Dakota House | Earl Pomeroy (D) vs Duane Sand (R) | 1 | D+22.6 | D+23.9 | ✓ |
| California President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs John McCain (R) | 13 | D+23.3 | D+24.1 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Senate | Tim Johnson (D) vs Joel D. Dykstra (R) | 7 | D+25.7 | D+25.0 | ✓ |
| Delaware President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 8 | D+25.2 | D+25.0 | ✓ |
| Illinois President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 8 | D+22.8 | D+25.1 | ✓ |
| Iowa Senate | Tom Harkin (D) vs Christopher Reed (R) | 8 | D+23.6 | D+25.4 | ✓ |
| Idaho President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 4 | R+27.3 | R+25.4 | ✓ |
| Maryland President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 3 | D+26.0 | D+25.4 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts President | Barack Obama (D) vs Barack Obama (R) | 8 | D+22.2 | D+25.6 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Bill Mitchell (D) vs Gus Michael Bilirakis (R) | 1 | R+21.4 | R+25.9 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | Michael Kelley (D) vs Geoff Davis (R) | 2 | R+19.8 | R+26.1 | ✓ |
| Washington House | George B. Fearing (D) vs Doc Hastings (R) | 1 | R+5.0 | R+26.2 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Daniel K. East (R) | 2 | D+25.7 | D+26.3 | ✓ |
| Alabama Senate | Vivian Davis Figures (D) vs Jeff Sessions (R) | 5 | R+29.6 | R+26.8 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Senate | John D. Rockefeller, IV (D) vs Jay Wolfe (R) | 4 | D+22.1 | D+27.5 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 5 | D+22.7 | D+27.8 | ✓ |
| Utah President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 6 | R+28.3 | R+28.2 | ✓ |
| Michigan Senate | Carl Levin (D) vs Jacob W. Hoogendyk Jr. (R) | 11 | D+23.8 | D+28.8 | ✓ |
| New York President | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs John McCain (R) | 11 | D+27.9 | D+28.8 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Jim Matheson (D) vs Bill Dew (R) | 3 | D+33.3 | D+28.9 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Joe Courtney (D) vs Sean P. Sullivan (R) | 2 | D+28.6 | D+29.2 | ✓ |
| Delaware Senate | Joe Biden (D) vs Christine O'Donnell (R) | 5 | D+34.2 | D+29.4 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Tim Walz (D) vs Brian J. Davis (R) | 1 | D+15.1 | D+29.6 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Donald Betts (D) vs Todd Tiahrt (R) | 1 | R+30.2 | R+31.0 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 15 | R+28.8 | R+31.3 | ✓ |
| Virginia Senate | Mark R. Warner (D) vs James S. Gilmore III (R) | 27 | D+28.6 | D+31.3 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Jim Harlan (D) vs Steve Scalise (R) | 1 | R+11.5 | R+31.4 | ✓ |
| Vermont Governor | Gaye Symington (D) vs Jim Douglas (R) | 1 | R+14.5 | R+31.6 | ✓ |
| Montana House | John B. Driscoll (D) vs Denny Rehberg (R) | 2 | R+25.5 | R+31.7 | ✓ |
| Wyoming President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 5 | R+30.5 | R+32.2 | ✓ |
| Montana Governor | Brian Schweitzer (D) vs Roy Brown (R) | 3 | D+25.6 | D+33.0 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Senate | Robert D. Tuke (D) vs Lamar Alexander (R) | 6 | R+24.6 | R+33.5 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Senate | John Kerry (D) vs Jeffrey K. Beatty (R) | 7 | D+29.6 | D+33.7 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Morgan E. Bowen (D) vs Rob Bishop (R) | 3 | R+29.8 | R+34.4 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Michael H. Michaud (D) vs John N. Frary (R) | 2 | D+35.0 | D+34.9 | ✓ |
| Delaware Governor | Jack Markell (D) vs William S. Lee (R) | 5 | D+32.9 | D+35.5 | ✓ |
| Vermont President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 4 | D+31.3 | D+37.0 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Bennion L. Spencer (D) vs Jason Chaffetz (R) | 3 | R+33.1 | R+37.3 | ✓ |
| Illinois Senate | Richard J. Durbin (D) vs Steve Sauerberg (R) | 3 | D+27.1 | D+39.3 | ✓ |
| Idaho House | Deborah Holmes (D) vs Mike Simpson (R) | 1 | R+36.9 | R+42.0 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | John Lynch (D) vs Joe Kenney (R) | 14 | D+44.2 | D+42.6 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Governor | Joe Manchin, III (D) vs Russ Weeks (R) | 2 | D+43.2 | D+44.1 | ✓ |
| Hawaii President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 3 | D+30.1 | D+45.3 | ✓ |
| Montana Senate | Max Baucus (D) vs Bob Kelleher (R) | 3 | D+37.8 | D+45.8 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed (D) vs Robert G. Tingle (R) | 1 | D+39.6 | D+46.6 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Senate | Christopher Rothfuss (D) vs John Barrasso (R) | 4 | R+39.6 | R+49.1 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Governor | Tim Mathern (D) vs John Hoeven (R) | 3 | R+41.2 | R+50.9 | ✓ |
| Utah Governor | Bob Springmeyer (D) vs Jon M. Huntsman, Jr. (R) | 3 | R+53.2 | R+57.9 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Senate | Mark L. Pryor (D) vs Rebekah J. Kennedy (R) | 1 | D+35.1 | D+59.1 | ✓ |
| DC President | Barack Obama (D) vs John McCain (R) | 2 | D+68.0 | D+85.9 | ✓ |