Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US President | — | 0 | — | R+1.5 | |
| US House | — | 0 | — | R+2.8 | |
| Iowa House | — | 0 | — | R+0.2 | |
| Pennsylvania Senate | — | 0 | — | R+0.2 | |
| Michigan Senate | — | 0 | — | D+0.3 | |
| Maine House | — | 0 | — | D+0.5 | |
| Colorado House | — | 0 | — | R+0.8 | |
| Wisconsin President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+0.8 | |
| Wisconsin Senate | — | 0 | — | D+0.9 | |
| Georgia Senate | — | 0 | — | D+0.9 | |
| Michigan President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+1.4 | |
| Pennsylvania House | — | 0 | — | R+1.6 | |
| Nevada Senate | — | 0 | — | D+1.7 | |
| Pennsylvania President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+1.7 | |
| Nebraska House | — | 0 | — | R+1.8 | |
| Alaska House | — | 0 | — | R+2.1 | |
| New York House | — | 0 | — | D+2.2 | |
| Ohio House | — | 0 | — | D+2.2 | |
| Georgia President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+2.2 | |
| Arizona Senate | — | 0 | — | D+2.4 | |
| Virginia House | — | 0 | — | D+2.6 | |
| New Hampshire President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+2.8 | |
| California House | — | 0 | — | D+2.8 | |
| Nevada President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+3.1 | |
| North Carolina President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+3.2 | |
| Ohio Senate | — | 0 | — | R+3.6 | |
| Michigan House | — | 0 | — | R+3.7 | |
| Virginia House | — | 0 | — | R+3.8 | |
| Iowa House | — | 0 | — | R+3.8 | |
| Minnesota President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+4.2 | |
| California House | — | 0 | — | D+4.4 | |
| Nebraska President | — | 0 | — | D+4.6 | |
| Arizona President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+5.5 | |
| Virginia President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+5.8 | |
| New Jersey President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+5.9 | |
| New Mexico President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+6.0 | |
| New Hampshire House | — | 0 | — | D+6.0 | |
| Michigan House | — | 0 | — | R+6.1 | |
| New York House | — | 0 | — | R+6.3 | |
| California House | — | 0 | — | R+6.8 | |
| Connecticut House | — | 0 | — | D+6.8 | |
| Nebraska Senate | — | 0 | — | R+6.8 | |
| Maine President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+6.9 | |
| Montana Senate | — | 0 | — | R+7.1 | |
| Montana House | — | 0 | — | R+7.7 | |
| New Hampshire House | — | 0 | — | D+8.0 | |
| New York House | — | 0 | — | D+8.0 | |
| Texas Senate | — | 0 | — | R+8.5 | |
| Illinois House | — | 0 | — | D+8.8 | |
| Virginia Senate | — | 0 | — | D+9.0 | |
| New York House | — | 0 | — | D+9.2 | |
| Alabama House | — | 0 | — | D+9.2 | |
| New Hampshire Governor | — | 0 | — | R+9.4 | |
| PR House | — | 0 | — | R+9.6 | |
| Maine President | — | 0 | — | R+9.6 | |
| Florida House | — | 0 | — | R+9.6 | |
| New Jersey Senate | — | 0 | — | D+9.6 | |
| New Mexico Senate | — | 0 | — | D+10.2 | |
| New York House | — | 0 | — | R+10.4 | |
| PR Governor | — | 0 | — | D+10.4 | |
| Colorado President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+10.9 | |
| Washington Governor | — | 0 | — | D+11.2 | |
| Ohio President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+11.2 | |
| Maryland Senate | — | 0 | — | D+11.9 | |
| New York President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+12.6 | |
| Georgia House | — | 0 | — | D+12.6 | |
| Florida Senate | — | 0 | — | R+12.8 | |
| Nebraska President | — | 0 | — | R+13.0 | |
| Florida President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+13.1 | |
| Iowa President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+13.3 | |
| Alaska President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+13.4 | |
| Texas President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+13.7 | |
| Rhode Island President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+13.8 | |
| Missouri Senate | — | 0 | — | R+13.8 | |
| Oregon President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+14.4 | |
| New York House | — | 0 | — | D+14.4 | |
| Florida House | — | 0 | — | R+14.6 | |
| Pennsylvania Governor | — | 0 | — | D+14.8 | |
| North Carolina Governor | — | 0 | — | D+14.8 | |
| Iowa House | — | 0 | — | R+15.6 | |
| Minnesota Senate | — | 0 | — | D+15.8 | |
| Maine Senate | — | 0 | — | D+17.5 | |
| South Carolina President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+17.8 | |
| California Senate | — | 0 | — | D+17.8 | |
| New York Senate | — | 0 | — | D+18.3 | |
| Washington President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+18.3 | |
| Missouri President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+18.4 | |
| Washington Senate | — | 0 | — | D+18.5 | |
| Massachusetts Senate | — | 0 | — | D+19.8 | |
| Montana President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+19.9 | |
| Rhode Island Senate | — | 0 | — | D+20.0 | |
| California President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+20.2 | |
| Nebraska House | — | 0 | — | R+20.2 | |
| Missouri Governor | — | 0 | — | R+20.4 | |
| Nebraska President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+20.5 | |
| California House | — | 0 | — | D+21.4 | |
| Utah President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+21.6 | |
| Maine President | — | 0 | — | D+21.8 | |
| Maine House | — | 0 | — | D+22.3 | |
| Utah Governor | — | 0 | — | R+24.4 | |
| Massachusetts President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+25.4 | |
| Maryland President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+28.8 | |
| South Dakota President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+29.2 | |
| Utah Senate | — | 0 | — | R+30.7 | |
| Vermont Senate | — | 0 | — | D+31.1 | |
| Vermont President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | D+31.8 | |
| Oklahoma President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+34.3 | |
| Iowa House | — | 0 | — | R+34.3 | |
| South Dakota House | — | 0 | — | R+44.0 | |
| Wyoming President | Kamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R) | 0 | — | R+46.2 | |
| Wyoming Senate | — | 0 | — | R+51.4 | |
| Vermont Governor | — | 0 | — | R+51.6 | |
| Nebraska President | — | 0 | — | R+53.8 | |
| Vermont House | — | 0 | — | D+54.8 | |
| Nebraska House | — | 0 | — | R+60.8 | |
| VI House | — | 0 | — | D+63.9 |