Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2005, the model called 2/2 of these races right (100%) using only pre-2005 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Governor | Tim Kaine (D) vs Jerry W. Kilgore (R) | 16 | D+0.2 | D+5.7 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Governor | Jon Stevens Corzine (D) vs Douglas R. Forrester (R) | 29 | D+6.2 | D+10.4 | ✓ |