Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2014, the model called 129/146 of these races right (88%) using only pre-2014 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona House | Ron Barber (D) vs Martha McSally (R) | 1 | D+0.7 | R+0.1 | ✗ |
| California House | Ami Bera (D) vs Doug Ose (R) | 1 | D+0.4 | D+0.8 | ✓ |
| Virginia Senate | Mark R. Warner (D) vs Ed W. Gillespie (R) | 12 | D+12.6 | D+0.8 | ✓ |
| Florida Governor | Charlie Crist (D) vs Rick Scott (R) | 42 | D+1.0 | R+1.1 | ✗ |
| Florida House | Gwen Graham (D) vs Steve Southerland II (R) | 2 | R+5.2 | D+1.1 | ✗ |
| Vermont Governor | Peter Elliott Shumlin (D) vs Scott Milne (R) | 2 | D+14.8 | D+1.3 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Richard M. Nolan (D) vs Stewart Mills (R) | 2 | R+2.9 | D+1.4 | ✗ |
| North Carolina Senate | Kay R. Hagan (D) vs Thomas Roland Tillis (R) | 40 | D+2.5 | R+1.6 | ✗ |
| Washington House | Clint Didier (D) vs Dan Newhouse (R) | 1 | R+0.7 | D+1.6 | ✗ |
| Massachusetts Governor | Martha Coakley (D) vs Charles D. Baker (R) | 31 | R+0.7 | R+1.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Alex Sink (D) vs David W. Jolly (R) | 4 | R+0.2 | R+1.9 | ✓ |
| Colorado Senate | Mark Udall (D) vs Cory Gardner (R) | 35 | R+1.3 | R+1.9 | ✓ |
| Alaska Senate | Mark Begich (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R) | 18 | R+1.5 | R+2.1 | ✓ |
| Alaska Governor | Sean R. Parnell (D) vs Sean R. Parnell (R) | 12 | D+0.2 | D+2.2 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Patrick Joseph Murphy (D) vs Rod Blum (R) | 2 | R+0.6 | R+2.3 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Governor | Dannel P. Malloy (D) vs Thomas C. Foley (R) | 11 | R+0.3 | D+2.3 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | Brad Schneider (D) vs Robert Dold (R) | 3 | D+1.7 | R+2.6 | ✗ |
| Florida House | Joe Garcia (D) vs Carlos Curbelo (R) | 3 | R+0.6 | R+2.9 | ✓ |
| California House | Scott Peters (D) vs Carl DeMaio (R) | 4 | R+1.7 | D+3.2 | ✗ |
| New Hampshire Senate | Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs Scott Brown (R) | 35 | D+3.2 | D+3.2 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Brad Ashford (D) vs Lee Terry (R) | 1 | D+4.5 | D+3.3 | ✓ |
| Colorado Governor | John Wright Hickenlooper (D) vs Bob Beauprez (R) | 28 | D+1.8 | D+3.3 | ✓ |
| California House | Pete Aguilar (D) vs Paul Chabot (R) | 1 | D+8.0 | D+3.5 | ✓ |
| California House | Michael M. Honda (D) vs Ro Khanna (R) | 3 | D+3.7 | D+3.5 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs Frank C. Guinta (R) | 13 | R+1.1 | R+3.6 | ✓ |
| Kansas Governor | Paul Davis (D) vs Sam Brownback (R) | 25 | D+1.3 | R+3.7 | ✗ |
| Maryland Governor | Anthony Brown (D) vs Larry Hogan (R) | 9 | D+2.3 | R+3.8 | ✗ |
| California House | Lois Capps (D) vs Chris Mitchum (R) | 1 | D+1.5 | D+3.9 | ✓ |
| Hawaii House | K. Mark Takai (D) vs Charles K. Djou (R) | 4 | D+3.8 | D+3.9 | ✓ |
| Illinois Governor | Pat Quinn (D) vs Bruce Rauner (R) | 20 | R+0.8 | R+3.9 | ✓ |
| Michigan Governor | Mark Schauer (D) vs Rick Snyder (R) | 30 | R+1.6 | R+4.1 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Gina M. Raimondo (D) vs Allan W. Fung (R) | 7 | D+2.7 | D+4.5 | ✓ |
| Maine Governor | Michael H. Michaud (D) vs Paul R. LePage (R) | 19 | R+0.5 | R+4.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | Timothy H. Bishop (D) vs Lee M. Zeldin (R) | 4 | R+1.6 | R+4.9 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | Maggie Hassan (D) vs Walt Havenstein (R) | 28 | D+8.3 | D+5.0 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Doug Owens (D) vs Mia B. Love (R) | 5 | R+6.7 | R+5.1 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Dave Loebsack (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | 1 | D+15.9 | D+5.1 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Emily Ann Cain (D) vs Bruce Poliquin (R) | 7 | R+1.3 | R+5.2 | ✓ |
| New York House | Sean Patrick Maloney (D) vs Nan Hayworth (R) | 6 | D+5.0 | D+5.2 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs Andrew M. Tobin (R) | 1 | R+4.8 | D+5.2 | ✗ |
| California House | John Garamendi (D) vs Dan Logue (R) | 1 | D+7.0 | D+5.5 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Governor | Mark Dayton (D) vs Jeff Johnson (R) | 8 | D+7.4 | D+5.6 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Governor | Mary Burke (D) vs Scott Walker (R) | 14 | R+1.8 | R+5.7 | ✓ |
| Oregon Governor | John Kitzhaber (D) vs Dennis Richardson (R) | 6 | D+9.6 | D+5.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | Domenic M. Recchia (D) vs Michael G. Grimm (R) | 3 | R+12.0 | R+6.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Elizabeth H. Esty (D) vs Mark Greenberg (R) | 1 | D+13.1 | D+6.5 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Bill Foster (D) vs Darlene J. Senger (R) | 2 | D+12.0 | D+6.9 | ✓ |
| Georgia Senate | Mary Michelle Nunn (D) vs David A. Perdue (R) | 35 | R+1.8 | R+7.7 | ✓ |
| Georgia Governor | Jason J. Carter (D) vs J. Nathan Deal (R) | 33 | R+3.7 | R+7.9 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Patrick Henry Hays (D) vs French Hill (R) | 2 | D+3.5 | R+8.3 | ✗ |
| Iowa Senate | Bruce L. Braley (D) vs Joni K. Ernst (R) | 44 | R+1.6 | R+8.3 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Collin Peterson (D) vs Torrey N. Westrom (R) | 4 | D+5.3 | D+8.6 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Andrew Romanoff (D) vs Mike Coffman (R) | 1 | D+0.2 | R+8.9 | ✗ |
| New York House | Kathleen Rice (D) vs Bruce Blakeman (R) | 2 | D+14.4 | D+9.1 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | John Barrow (D) vs Rick W. Allen (R) | 3 | R+1.9 | R+9.5 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Aimee Belgard (D) vs Tom MacArthur (R) | 6 | R+7.0 | R+9.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Thomas W. Wolf (D) vs Thomas W. Corbett (R) | 13 | D+11.0 | D+9.9 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts House | Bill Keating (D) vs John C. Chapman (R) | 3 | D+2.3 | D+10.0 | ✓ |
| Alaska House | Forrest Dunbar (D) vs Don Young (R) | 4 | R+8.5 | R+10.0 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Ann McLane Kuster (D) vs Marilinda Garcia (R) | 13 | D+9.6 | D+10.0 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Suzan DelBene (D) vs Pedro Celis (R) | 2 | R+9.9 | D+10.1 | ✗ |
| Minnesota Senate | Al Franken (D) vs Mike McFadden (R) | 9 | D+12.8 | D+10.2 | ✓ |
| New York House | Daniel B. Maffei (D) vs John Katko (R) | 4 | R+1.1 | R+10.4 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Staci Appel (D) vs David Young (R) | 5 | R+1.8 | R+10.5 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | William L. Enyart (D) vs Mike Bost (R) | 2 | R+1.3 | R+10.6 | ✓ |
| Kansas Senate | Gregory Orman (D) vs Pat Roberts (R) | 25 | R+2.0 | D+10.6 | ✗ |
| West Virginia House | Nick J. Rahall II (D) vs Evan Hollin Jenkins (R) | 1 | R+6.2 | R+10.7 | ✓ |
| Illinois Senate | Richard J. Durbin (D) vs James D. Oberweis (R) | 10 | D+12.8 | D+10.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Alan Grayson (D) vs Carol Platt (R) | 1 | D+7.6 | D+10.9 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Cheri Bustos (D) vs Robert Schilling (R) | 2 | D+16.5 | D+10.9 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Senate | Tom Udall (D) vs Allen E. Weh (R) | 7 | D+12.9 | D+11.1 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | James Lee Witt (D) vs Bruce Westerman (R) | 2 | R+5.7 | R+11.2 | ✓ |
| Arizona Governor | Fred Duval (D) vs Doug Ducey (R) | 11 | R+7.3 | R+11.8 | ✓ |
| Louisiana Senate | Mary L. Landrieu (D) vs Bill Cassidy (R) | 14 | R+15.4 | R+11.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Roy Cho (D) vs Scott Garrett (R) | 3 | R+8.8 | R+12.1 | ✓ |
| California House | Michael Eggman (D) vs Jeff Denham (R) | 1 | R+10.7 | R+12.3 | ✓ |
| Hawaii Governor | David Y. Ige (D) vs Duke Aiona (R) | 9 | D+9.9 | D+12.4 | ✓ |
| Michigan Senate | Gary C. Peters (D) vs Terri Lynn Land (R) | 32 | D+13.7 | D+13.3 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory A. Booker (D) vs Jeff Bell (R) | 9 | D+16.3 | D+13.5 | ✓ |
| Delaware Senate | Christopher A. Coons (D) vs Kevin Wade (R) | 4 | D+22.2 | D+13.6 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts House | Seth Moulton (D) vs Richard R. Tisei (R) | 13 | D+1.0 | D+13.8 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Governor | Michael Avery Ross (D) vs Asa Hutchinson (R) | 16 | R+6.1 | R+13.9 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Governor | Gary K. King (D) vs Susana Martinez (R) | 8 | R+15.6 | R+14.4 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Governor | Vincent A. Sheheen (D) vs Nikki Haley (R) | 6 | R+15.9 | R+14.5 | ✓ |
| New York House | Aaron G. Woolf (D) vs Elise M. Stefanik (R) | 4 | R+13.6 | R+14.6 | ✓ |
| New York Governor | Andrew Cuomo (D) vs Robert P. Astorino (R) | 9 | D+22.8 | D+14.7 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Governor | Joe Dorman (D) vs Mary Fallin (R) | 5 | R+16.8 | R+14.8 | ✓ |
| Idaho Governor | AJ Balukoff (D) vs C.L. 'Butch' Otter (R) | 4 | R+16.4 | R+15.0 | ✓ |
| Montana House | John Lewis (D) vs Ryan K. Zinke (R) | 3 | R+10.8 | R+15.0 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Bobby McKenzie (D) vs David A. Trott (R) | 1 | R+12.1 | R+15.4 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Senate | Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) vs Mitch McConnell (R) | 20 | R+6.9 | R+15.5 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Paul Clements (D) vs Fred Upton (R) | 1 | R+6.7 | R+15.5 | ✓ |
| California House | Amanda Renteria (D) vs David G. Valadao (R) | 2 | R+9.7 | R+15.7 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | John W. Foust (D) vs Barbara J. Comstock (R) | 3 | R+13.6 | R+16.1 | ✓ |
| North Dakota House | George B. Sinner (D) vs Kevin Cramer (R) | 5 | R+12.3 | R+17.1 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Senate | Mark L. Pryor (D) vs Tom Cotton (R) | 17 | R+6.4 | R+17.1 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Mike Obermueller (D) vs John Kline (R) | 1 | R+20.1 | R+17.2 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Ann E. Callis (D) vs Rodney Davis (R) | 3 | R+15.5 | R+17.3 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Clayton Holmes Aiken (D) vs Renee L. Ellmers (R) | 1 | R+8.5 | R+17.6 | ✓ |
| Montana Senate | Amanda G. Curtis (D) vs Steve Daines (R) | 5 | R+17.5 | R+17.7 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Governor | Chuck Hassebrook (D) vs Pete Ricketts (R) | 2 | R+22.9 | R+17.9 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Margie Wakefield (D) vs Lynn Jenkins (R) | 3 | R+12.4 | R+18.4 | ✓ |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff Merkley (D) vs Monica Wehby (R) | 8 | D+20.9 | D+18.9 | ✓ |
| New York House | Sean S. Eldridge (D) vs Christopher P. Gibson (R) | 4 | R+18.8 | R+19.8 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Senate | Charles Bradley Hutto (D) vs Lindsey Graham (R) | 8 | R+22.3 | R+19.8 | ✓ |
| California Governor | Jerry Brown (D) vs Neel Kashkari (R) | 8 | D+18.7 | D+19.9 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | Elisabeth Jensen (D) vs Andy Barr (R) | 2 | R+16.7 | R+20.0 | ✓ |
| Texas Governor | Wendy R. Davis (D) vs Greg Abbott (R) | 6 | R+18.2 | R+20.4 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Senate | Richard P. Weiland (D) vs M. Michael Rounds (R) | 14 | R+13.5 | R+20.9 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Dan Lavallee (D) vs Mike Kelly (R) | 1 | R+23.8 | R+21.3 | ✓ |
| Iowa Governor | Jack G. Hatch (D) vs Terry E. Branstad (R) | 24 | R+16.3 | R+21.7 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Brian Corwin Reese (D) vs Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R) | 1 | R+23.2 | R+21.8 | ✓ |
| Mississippi Senate | Travis W. Childers (D) vs Thad Cochran (R) | 2 | R+22.0 | R+22.0 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | John C. Carney Jr. (D) vs Rose Izzo (R) | 1 | D+34.3 | D+22.5 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Jim Mowrer (D) vs Steve King (R) | 3 | R+12.1 | R+23.3 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Senate | Edward J. Markey (D) vs Brian J. Herr (R) | 13 | D+21.9 | D+23.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | William Hughes (D) vs Frank A. LoBiondo (R) | 3 | R+18.9 | R+24.2 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Edwin Edwards (D) vs Garret Graves (R) | 2 | R+12.8 | R+24.9 | ✓ |
| Texas Senate | David M. Alameel (D) vs John Cornyn (R) | 5 | R+24.0 | R+27.2 | ✓ |
| Alabama Governor | Rolf Parker Griffith (D) vs Robert Julian Bentley (R) | 3 | R+33.7 | R+27.3 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Senate | Natalie E. Tennant (D) vs Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 3 | R+22.1 | R+27.6 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Luz Robles (D) vs Chris Stewart (R) | 2 | R+23.6 | R+28.3 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs Isaac J. Misiuk (R) | 6 | D+31.9 | D+29.8 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Senate | William Gordon Ball (D) vs Lamar Alexander (R) | 4 | R+21.0 | R+30.0 | ✓ |
| Ohio Governor | Edward FitzGerald (D) vs John Richard Kasich (R) | 7 | R+21.1 | R+30.6 | ✓ |
| Idaho Senate | Nels Mitchell (D) vs James E. Risch (R) | 3 | R+30.5 | R+30.7 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Thomas D. Wight (D) vs Rob Woodall (R) | 1 | R+24.8 | R+30.8 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Jackie McPherson (D) vs Rick Crawford (R) | 1 | R+23.3 | R+30.9 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Governor | Pete Gosar (D) vs Matt Hansen Mead (R) | 3 | R+26.6 | R+32.1 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Senate | Dave Domina (D) vs Ben Sasse (R) | 2 | R+31.1 | R+32.9 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | I. Kenneth Dious (D) vs Jody B. Hice (R) | 1 | R+28.4 | R+33.0 | ✓ |
| South Dakota House | Corinna Balderramos Robinson (D) vs Kristi Noem (R) | 6 | R+21.9 | R+33.1 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | James E. Sherow (D) vs Tim Huelskamp (R) | 1 | D+12.3 | R+35.9 | ✗ |
| Utah House | Donna M. McAleer (D) vs Rob Bishop (R) | 2 | R+28.5 | R+36.8 | ✓ |
| Maine Senate | Shenna Bellows (D) vs Susan M. Collins (R) | 9 | R+28.6 | R+37.0 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Scott F. Brion (D) vs Tom Marino (R) | 1 | R+9.2 | R+37.8 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Senate | Constance N. Johnson (D) vs James Lankford (R) | 6 | R+36.4 | R+39.2 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed (D) vs Mark S. Zaccaria (R) | 3 | D+45.2 | D+41.3 | ✓ |
| Hawaii Senate | Brian Schatz (D) vs Cam Cavasso (R) | 6 | D+46.9 | D+42.1 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Governor | Susan M. Wismer (D) vs Dennis M. Daugaard (R) | 8 | R+32.0 | R+45.0 | ✓ |
| Nevada Governor | Robert E. Goodman (D) vs Brian E. Sandoval (R) | 3 | R+32.9 | R+46.7 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Governor | Charles V. Brown (D) vs William Edward Haslam (R) | 3 | R+32.6 | R+47.5 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Brian Wonnacott (D) vs Jason Chaffetz (R) | 2 | R+43.6 | R+49.7 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Senate | Charlie Hardy (D) vs Michael B. Enzi (R) | 2 | R+45.1 | R+54.7 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Grant Brand (D) vs Steve Womack (R) | 1 | D+41.4 | D+58.8 | ✓ |
| Hawaii House | Tulsi Gabbard (D) vs Kawika Crowley (R) | 2 | D+47.7 | D+60.1 | ✓ |