Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2006, the model called 146/167 of these races right (87%) using only pre-2006 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut House | Joe Courtney (D) vs Robert R. Simmons (R) | 7 | R+4.1 | EVEN | ✗ |
| Florida House | Christine L. Jennings (D) vs Vern Buchanan (R) | 6 | D+0.8 | R+0.1 | ✗ |
| North Carolina House | Lawrence Webb Kissell (D) vs Robert C. Hayes (R) | 4 | R+2.5 | R+0.3 | ✓ |
| Virginia Senate | Jim Webb (D) vs George F. Allen (R) | 28 | D+0.8 | D+0.4 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Patricia A. Madrid (D) vs Heather A. Wilson (R) | 11 | D+1.7 | R+0.4 | ✗ |
| Ohio House | Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs Deborah D. Pryce (R) | 1 | D+10.5 | R+0.5 | ✗ |
| Wyoming House | Gary Trauner (D) vs Barbara L. Cubin (R) | 2 | R+6.1 | R+0.5 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | John Barrow (D) vs Max Burns (R) | 1 | D+1.7 | D+0.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Patrick J. Murphy (D) vs Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R) | 5 | R+0.9 | D+0.6 | ✗ |
| Montana Senate | Jon Tester (D) vs Conrad Burns (R) | 18 | D+4.4 | D+0.9 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Governor | Mike Hatch (D) vs Tim Pawlenty (R) | 18 | D+0.9 | R+1.0 | ✗ |
| Ohio House | Victoria Wells Wulsin (D) vs Jean Schmidt (R) | 5 | R+2.1 | R+1.1 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | James Marshall (D) vs Michael Allen Collins (R) | 2 | D+8.9 | D+1.1 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Lois Murphy (D) vs Jim Gerlach (R) | 9 | D+0.3 | R+1.3 | ✗ |
| New Jersey House | Linda Stender (D) vs Michael Ferguson (R) | 3 | R+7.4 | R+1.5 | ✓ |
| New York House | Eric J. Massa (D) vs John R. Kuhl (R) | 2 | D+10.0 | D+1.5 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Tessa M. Hafen (D) vs Jon C. Porter (R) | 4 | R+8.2 | R+1.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Tim Mahoney (D) vs Joe Negron (R) | 1 | D+4.9 | D+1.9 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Charlie Fogarty (D) vs Donald Carcieri (R) | 11 | R+10.0 | R+2.0 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Steven L. Kagen (D) vs John G. Gard (R) | 5 | D+1.8 | D+2.1 | ✓ |
| Missouri Senate | Claire McCaskill (D) vs Jim Talent (R) | 28 | D+0.3 | D+2.3 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | John Yarmuth (D) vs Anne Meagher Northup (R) | 8 | D+0.4 | D+2.5 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Angie Paccione (D) vs Marilyn N. Musgrave (R) | 7 | R+3.5 | R+2.5 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs Jeb E. Bradley (R) | 5 | R+11.0 | D+2.6 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | Tammy Duckworth (D) vs Peter J. Roskam (R) | 8 | D+2.9 | R+2.7 | ✗ |
| Tennessee Senate | Harold E. Ford Jr. (D) vs Bob Corker (R) | 31 | R+3.3 | R+2.7 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Philip J. Kellam (D) vs Thelma D. Drake (R) | 5 | R+3.7 | R+2.8 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Dave Loebsack (D) vs James A. Leach (R) | 2 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 | ✗ |
| Washington House | Darcy Burner (D) vs David G. Reichert (R) | 6 | R+3.0 | R+2.9 | ✓ |
| California House | Charles Duane Brown (D) vs John T. Doolittle (R) | 4 | R+8.1 | R+3.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Diane Farrell (D) vs Christopher H. Shays (R) | 7 | R+1.1 | R+3.4 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Nancy E. Boyda (D) vs Jim R. Ryun (R) | 5 | D+0.5 | D+3.5 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Ron Klein (D) vs E. Clay Shaw (R) | 5 | D+2.3 | D+3.8 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Jason Altmire (D) vs Melissa A. Hart (R) | 4 | R+7.6 | D+3.9 | ✗ |
| Michigan House | Sharon Marie Renier (D) vs Tim Walberg (R) | 2 | R+14.6 | R+4.0 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Harry E. Mitchell (D) vs J.D. Hayworth (R) | 7 | R+3.8 | D+4.0 | ✗ |
| Nevada Governor | Dina Titus (D) vs Jim Gibbons (R) | 7 | R+6.2 | R+4.0 | ✓ |
| New York House | Jack Davis (D) vs Thomas M. Reynolds (R) | 9 | R+0.7 | R+4.0 | ✓ |
| New York House | Daniel B. Maffei (D) vs James T. Walsh (R) | 6 | R+3.5 | D+4.1 | ✗ |
| Ohio House | John Cranley (D) vs Steve Chabot (R) | 2 | D+4.3 | R+4.5 | ✗ |
| Indiana House | Baron P. Hill (D) vs Mike Sodrel (R) | 7 | D+1.7 | D+4.5 | ✓ |
| California House | Francine P. Busby (D) vs Brian P. Bilbray (R) | 7 | R+5.9 | R+4.5 | ✓ |
| Idaho House | Larry Grant (D) vs William T. Sali (R) | 4 | R+2.5 | R+5.2 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Leonard L. Boswell (D) vs Jeff Lamberti (R) | 1 | D+16.8 | D+5.4 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Jill Talbot Derby (D) vs Dean Heller (R) | 3 | R+5.8 | R+5.4 | ✓ |
| New York House | David L. Mejias (D) vs Peter King (R) | 2 | R+6.3 | R+5.6 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Tim Walz (D) vs Gilbert W. Gutknecht (R) | 2 | R+3.3 | D+5.6 | ✗ |
| Pennsylvania House | Christopher P. Carney (D) vs Donald L. Sherwood (R) | 7 | D+5.7 | D+5.9 | ✓ |
| New York House | Michael A. Arcuri (D) vs Raymond A. Meier (R) | 1 | D+9.4 | D+6.0 | ✓ |
| Maryland Governor | Martin O'Malley (D) vs Robert Ehrlich Jr. (R) | 20 | D+2.4 | D+6.5 | ✓ |
| California House | Jerry McNerney (D) vs Richard W. Pombo (R) | 3 | R+0.5 | D+6.5 | ✗ |
| Illinois House | Daniel J. Seals (D) vs Mark Kirk (R) | 4 | R+9.3 | R+6.8 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Melissa Bean (D) vs David McSweeney (R) | 6 | D+6.4 | D+6.9 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Senate | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs Lincoln Chafee (R) | 15 | D+5.0 | D+7.0 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Charlie Stuart (D) vs Richard Keller (R) | 2 | R+15.8 | R+7.1 | ✓ |
| Florida Governor | Jim Davis (D) vs Charlie Crist (R) | 24 | R+10.6 | R+7.1 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Paul W. Hodes (D) vs Charles Bass (R) | 7 | R+2.3 | D+7.1 | ✗ |
| Alaska Governor | Tony Knowles (D) vs Sarah Palin (R) | 10 | R+7.4 | R+7.4 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Governor | Jim Doyle (D) vs Mark A. Green (R) | 9 | D+5.3 | D+7.4 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Julia M. Carson (D) vs Eric Dickerson (R) | 1 | R+3.6 | D+7.5 | ✗ |
| North Carolina House | Joseph Heath Shuler (D) vs Charles H. Taylor (R) | 6 | D+6.8 | D+7.6 | ✓ |
| Maine Governor | John Baldacci (D) vs Chandler E. Woodcock (R) | 8 | D+7.1 | D+7.9 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Joe Donnelly (D) vs Chris Chocola (R) | 8 | D+5.6 | D+8.0 | ✓ |
| Oregon Governor | Ted Kulongoski (D) vs Ron Saxton (R) | 11 | D+4.6 | D+8.0 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Patty Wetterling (D) vs Michele Bachmann (R) | 10 | R+5.6 | R+8.0 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Ellen S. Simon (D) vs Richard Renzi (R) | 4 | R+6.5 | R+8.3 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | Kenneth R. Lucas (D) vs Geoff Davis (R) | 9 | R+3.6 | R+8.3 | ✓ |
| Idaho Governor | Jerry Brady (D) vs C.L. 'Butch' Otter (R) | 2 | D+0.7 | R+8.6 | ✗ |
| Texas House | Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) vs Henry Bonilla (R) | 2 | R+5.8 | D+8.6 | ✗ |
| Vermont House | Peter Welch (D) vs Martha Rainville (R) | 3 | D+6.7 | D+8.7 | ✓ |
| New York House | Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) vs John E. Sweeney (R) | 7 | D+0.8 | D+8.9 | ✓ |
| Texas Governor | Chris Bell (D) vs Rick Perry (R) | 9 | R+14.9 | R+9.2 | ✓ |
| Iowa Governor | Chet Culver (D) vs Jim Nussle (R) | 10 | D+3.9 | D+9.7 | ✓ |
| New York House | John Hall (D) vs Sue W. Kelly (R) | 4 | D+0.1 | D+9.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona Senate | Jim Pederson (D) vs Jon Kyl (R) | 15 | R+8.6 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Scott Kleeb (D) vs Adrian Smith (R) | 3 | R+5.2 | R+10.0 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Nicholas V. Lampson (D) vs Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R) | 1 | R+16.5 | D+10.0 | ✗ |
| Maryland Senate | Benjamin L. Cardin (D) vs Michael S. Steele (R) | 24 | D+4.7 | D+10.0 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Governor | Tommy Moore (D) vs Mark Sanford (R) | 7 | R+17.7 | R+10.3 | ✓ |
| Illinois Governor | Rod Blagojevich (D) vs Judy Baar Topinka (R) | 17 | D+8.8 | D+10.5 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | John Michael Weaver (D) vs Ron Lewis (R) | 3 | R+8.2 | R+10.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Phyllis Busansky (D) vs Gus Michael Bilirakis (R) | 3 | R+17.5 | R+11.8 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Bruce L. Braley (D) vs Mike Whalen (R) | 5 | D+8.8 | D+11.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs Randy J. Graf (R) | 8 | D+11.2 | D+12.2 | ✓ |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown (D) vs Mike DeWine (R) | 30 | D+9.4 | D+12.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Joe Sestak (D) vs W. Curtis Weldon (R) | 5 | D+2.2 | D+12.8 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Peter J. Goldmark (D) vs Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) | 1 | R+5.8 | R+12.8 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Ed Perlmutter (D) vs Rick O'Donnell (R) | 7 | D+8.3 | D+12.9 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Christopher Murphy (D) vs Nancy L. Johnson (R) | 5 | D+0.1 | D+12.9 | ✓ |
| South Carolina House | John M. Spratt (D) vs Ralph Norman (R) | 3 | D+18.7 | D+13.8 | ✓ |
| Michigan Governor | Jennifer Granholm (D) vs Dick DeVos (R) | 18 | D+6.5 | D+14.1 | ✓ |
| Nevada Senate | Jack Carter (D) vs John Ensign (R) | 8 | R+13.5 | R+14.4 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Selden E. Spencer (D) vs Tom Latham (R) | 1 | R+11.9 | R+14.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Robert Shamansky (D) vs Patrick J. Tiberi (R) | 1 | R+5.8 | R+14.6 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Governor | Mike Beebe (D) vs Asa Hutchinson (R) | 13 | D+8.6 | D+14.9 | ✓ |
| Vermont Governor | Scudder Parker (D) vs Jim Douglas (R) | 2 | R+19.7 | R+15.2 | ✓ |
| Michigan Senate | Debbie Stabenow (D) vs Mike Bouchard (R) | 20 | D+11.3 | D+15.7 | ✓ |
| Alabama Governor | Lucy Baxley (D) vs Bob Riley (R) | 6 | R+17.9 | R+15.9 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Clint Curtis (D) vs Tom Feeney (R) | 1 | R+3.2 | R+15.9 | ✓ |
| New Jersey Senate | Robert Menendez (D) vs Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) | 36 | D+5.3 | D+16.0 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Coleen Rowley (D) vs John Kline (R) | 2 | R+12.0 | R+16.1 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Judy M. Feder (D) vs Frank R. Wolf (R) | 1 | R+5.9 | R+16.4 | ✓ |
| Alaska House | Diane Benson (D) vs Don Young (R) | 3 | R+9.9 | R+16.6 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Maxine B. Moul (D) vs Jeff Fortenberry (R) | 3 | R+13.0 | R+16.7 | ✓ |
| Colorado Governor | Bill Ritter, Jr. (D) vs Bob Beauprez (R) | 14 | D+13.4 | D+16.8 | ✓ |
| Washington Senate | Maria Cantwell (D) vs Mike McGavick (R) | 16 | D+12.1 | D+16.9 | ✓ |
| California Governor | Phil Angelides (D) vs Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) | 18 | R+14.8 | R+17.0 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) vs Rick Santorum (R) | 27 | D+8.5 | D+17.4 | ✓ |
| Kansas Governor | Kathleen Sebelius (D) vs Jim Barnett (R) | 5 | D+14.3 | D+17.5 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Thomas Edwards (D) vs Van Taylor (R) | 3 | D+13.3 | D+17.8 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | Dennis R. Spivack (D) vs Michael N. Castle (R) | 2 | R+34.6 | R+18.4 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Albert D. Kissling (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 2 | R+26.8 | R+18.9 | ✓ |
| California House | Cynthia Rodriguez Matthews (D) vs David T. Dreier (R) | 1 | R+18.1 | R+19.1 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Albert C. Weed (D) vs Virgil H. Goode (R) | 2 | R+21.9 | R+19.2 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Jay Fawcett (D) vs Doug Lamborn (R) | 5 | R+10.4 | R+19.3 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Jonathan Laesch (D) vs J. Dennis Hastert (R) | 1 | R+10.6 | R+19.6 | ✓ |
| Florida House | John T. Russell (D) vs Virginia Brown-Waite (R) | 3 | R+14.7 | R+19.7 | ✓ |
| Georgia Governor | Mark Taylor (D) vs Sonny Perdue (R) | 13 | R+16.8 | R+19.7 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Monica J. Lindeen (D) vs Denny Rehberg (R) | 3 | R+23.0 | R+19.8 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Senate | Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark R. Kennedy (R) | 20 | D+14.7 | D+20.1 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Governor | Deval Patrick (D) vs Kerry Healey (R) | 15 | D+20.1 | D+20.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Ed Rendell (D) vs Lynn Swann (R) | 19 | D+17.8 | D+20.7 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Victor F. Snyder (D) vs Andy Mayberry (R) | 3 | D+17.0 | D+21.1 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Danny L. Stover (D) vs John Shimkus (R) | 1 | R+17.1 | R+21.4 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | John P. Murtha (D) vs Diana Irey Vaughan (R) | 1 | D+21.4 | D+21.6 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Jim Matheson (D) vs LaVar Christensen (R) | 2 | D+29.8 | D+21.7 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Brad Ellsworth (D) vs John Nathan Hostettler (R) | 5 | D+10.7 | D+22.0 | ✓ |
| Florida Senate | Bill Nelson (D) vs Katherine Harris (R) | 16 | D+21.0 | D+22.2 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Betty Sutton (D) vs L. Craig Foltin (R) | 1 | D+18.1 | D+22.4 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | David Hunter (D) vs Mary Fallin (R) | 2 | R+23.8 | R+23.1 | ✓ |
| Ohio Governor | Ted Strickland (D) vs J. Kenneth Blackwell (R) | 24 | D+17.3 | D+23.9 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Zachary T. Space (D) vs Joy Padgett (R) | 6 | D+10.1 | D+24.1 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Charles A. Wilson (D) vs Charles R. Blasdel (R) | 5 | D+18.3 | D+24.2 | ✓ |
| California Senate | Dianne Feinstein (D) vs Richard Dick Mountjoy (R) | 11 | D+22.2 | D+24.4 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | John T. Salazar (D) vs Scott Tipton (R) | 3 | D+16.4 | D+25.0 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Christian Burridge (D) vs Chris Cannon (R) | 2 | R+25.2 | R+25.5 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Governor | Jack Billion (D) vs M. Michael Rounds (R) | 1 | R+22.0 | R+25.6 | ✓ |
| Texas Senate | Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) vs Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) | 6 | R+29.3 | R+25.6 | ✓ |
| Arizona Governor | Janet Napolitano (D) vs Len Munsil (R) | 13 | D+20.0 | D+27.1 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Governor | John DeStefano, Jr. (D) vs M. Jodi Rell (R) | 8 | R+26.8 | R+27.8 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Senate | Ben Nelson (D) vs Pete Ricketts (R) | 2 | D+18.7 | D+27.8 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Rick Larsen (D) vs Douglas R. Roulstone (R) | 2 | D+24.7 | D+28.3 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Thomas H. Allen (D) vs Darlene J. Curley (R) | 1 | D+36.6 | D+29.5 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Garth McGinn (D) vs Todd Tiahrt (R) | 1 | R+31.9 | R+29.6 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Senate | Edward Lamont (D) vs Alan Schlesinger (R) | 19 | D+29.6 | D+30.1 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Steve Olsen (D) vs Rob Bishop (R) | 1 | R+30.1 | R+30.6 | ✓ |
| Utah Senate | Pete Ashdown (D) vs Orrin G. Hatch (R) | 3 | R+31.1 | R+31.3 | ✓ |
| New York Senate | Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) vs John Spencer (R) | 11 | D+28.8 | D+31.6 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Governor | Brad Henry (D) vs Ernest Istook (R) | 5 | D+29.0 | D+33.0 | ✓ |
| Vermont Senate | Rich Tarrant (D) vs Rich Tarrant (R) | 3 | D+24.0 | D+33.0 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Keith Ellison (D) vs Alan Fine (R) | 1 | D+21.7 | D+34.2 | ✓ |
| New York Governor | Eliot Spitzer (D) vs John J. Faso (R) | 11 | D+38.7 | D+34.8 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Senate | Edward M. Kennedy (D) vs Kenneth G. Chase (R) | 3 | D+33.0 | D+37.4 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Governor | Bill Richardson (D) vs John Dendahl (R) | 1 | D+25.3 | D+37.6 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Senate | Herb Kohl (D) vs Robert Gerald Lorge (R) | 6 | D+28.4 | D+37.8 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Governor | Phil Bredesen (D) vs Jim Bryson (R) | 13 | D+27.1 | D+38.9 | ✓ |
| South Dakota House | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) vs Bruce W. Whalen (R) | 1 | D+34.6 | D+39.8 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Governor | Dave Freudenthal (D) vs Ray Hunkins (R) | 2 | D+37.6 | D+40.0 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Senate | Dale Groutage (D) vs Craig Thomas (R) | 2 | R+42.9 | R+40.1 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Michael H. Michaud (D) vs Laurence Scott D'Amboise (R) | 1 | D+30.6 | D+41.0 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Senate | Jeff Bingaman (D) vs Allen W. McCulloch MD (R) | 5 | D+29.0 | D+41.3 | ✓ |
| Delaware Senate | Thomas R. Carper (D) vs Jan Ting (R) | 2 | D+32.8 | D+41.5 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | John Lynch (D) vs Jim Coburn (R) | 6 | D+43.2 | D+48.2 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Governor | David Hahn (D) vs Dave Heineman (R) | 2 | R+46.3 | R+48.9 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Tom Udall (D) vs Ronald M. Dolin (R) | 2 | D+43.6 | D+49.3 | ✓ |
| Maine Senate | Jean M. Hay Bright (D) vs Olympia J. Snowe (R) | 2 | R+49.6 | R+53.6 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Senate | Robert C. Byrd (D) vs John Raese (R) | 1 | D+28.3 | D+54.1 | ✓ |