Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2019, the model called 4/5 of these races right (80%) using only pre-2019 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Governor | Andy Beshear (D) vs Matthew G. Bevin (R) | 3 | D+2.3 | D+0.4 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Daniel Kent McCready (D) vs Dan Bishop (R) | 4 | D+1.4 | R+2.0 | ✗ |
| Louisiana Governor | John Bel Edwards (D) vs Eddie Rispone (R) | 12 | D+1.8 | D+2.7 | ✓ |
| Mississippi Governor | Jim Hood (D) vs Tate Reeves (R) | 5 | R+3.0 | R+5.1 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Allen Morris Thomas (D) vs Greg Murphy (R) | 1 | R+13.4 | R+24.3 | ✓ |