Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2011, the model called 7/7 of these races right (100%) using only pre-2011 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York House | David I. Weprin (D) vs Bob Turner (R) | 6 | R+2.3 | R+1.7 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Governor | Earl Ray Tomblin (D) vs Bill Maloney (R) | 5 | D+4.9 | D+2.5 | ✓ |
| California House | Janice Hahn (D) vs Craig Huey (R) | 1 | D+13.2 | D+9.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | Kathy C. Hochul (D) vs Jane L. Corwin (R) | 5 | D+2.0 | D+10.6 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Governor | Steve Beshear (D) vs David L. Williams (R) | 3 | D+26.2 | D+20.4 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Kate Marshall (D) vs Mark E. Amodei (R) | 3 | R+10.9 | R+21.9 | ✓ |
| Mississippi Governor | Johnny L. DuPree (D) vs Phil Bryant (R) | 1 | R+16.3 | R+22.0 | ✓ |