Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2010, the model called 201/229 of these races right (88%) using only pre-2010 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois House | Melissa Bean (D) vs Joe Walsh (R) | 2 | R+1.3 | R+0.1 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | Albert Ben Chandler (D) vs Andy Barr (R) | 7 | D+6.4 | D+0.3 | ✓ |
| Minnesota Governor | Mark Dayton (D) vs Tom Emmer (R) | 13 | D+4.4 | D+0.4 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Dina Titus (D) vs Joseph J. Heck (R) | 5 | R+6.1 | R+0.7 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Solomon P. Ortiz (D) vs Blake Farenthold (R) | 2 | R+8.5 | R+0.8 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Bob R. Etheridge (D) vs Renee L. Ellmers (R) | 2 | R+8.1 | R+0.8 | ✓ |
| West Virginia House | Michael Angelo Oliverio (D) vs David B. McKinley (R) | 2 | R+3.9 | R+0.8 | ✓ |
| Illinois Governor | Pat Quinn (D) vs William E. Brady (R) | 20 | R+5.7 | D+0.8 | ✗ |
| California House | Jerry McNerney (D) vs David Harmer (R) | 3 | R+4.1 | D+1.1 | ✗ |
| Hawaii House | Colleen W. Hanabusa (D) vs Charles K. Djou (R) | 10 | R+7.3 | R+1.1 | ✓ |
| Florida Governor | Alex Sink (D) vs Rick Scott (R) | 37 | R+0.3 | R+1.1 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Joe Donnelly (D) vs Jackie Walorski (R) | 2 | D+6.4 | D+1.3 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs Jesse Kelly (R) | 1 | R+0.7 | D+1.5 | ✗ |
| Oregon Governor | John Kitzhaber (D) vs Chris Dudley (R) | 13 | D+1.5 | D+1.5 | ✓ |
| New York House | Scott Murphy (D) vs Christopher P. Gibson (R) | 5 | D+0.2 | R+1.5 | ✗ |
| New Hampshire House | Ann McLane Kuster (D) vs Charles Bass (R) | 6 | R+0.2 | R+1.6 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | James L. Oberstar (D) vs Chip Cravaack (R) | 2 | D+1.6 | R+1.6 | ✗ |
| Illinois Senate | Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs Mark Kirk (R) | 25 | R+0.9 | R+1.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Jason Altmire (D) vs Keith J. Rothfus (R) | 2 | D+11.1 | D+1.6 | ✓ |
| Colorado Senate | Michael Bennet (D) vs Ken Buck (R) | 23 | R+1.9 | D+1.6 | ✗ |
| Connecticut Governor | Dannel P. Malloy (D) vs Thomas C. Foley (R) | 21 | D+2.5 | R+1.7 | ✗ |
| Vermont Governor | Peter Elliott Shumlin (D) vs Brian Dubie (R) | 3 | D+2.4 | D+1.8 | ✓ |
| Ohio Governor | Ted Strickland (D) vs John Richard Kasich (R) | 39 | R+3.6 | R+2.0 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Joe Sestak (D) vs Patrick J. Toomey (R) | 35 | R+4.1 | R+2.0 | ✓ |
| New York House | Michael A. Arcuri (D) vs Richard L. Hanna (R) | 4 | D+4.7 | D+2.1 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Rick Larsen (D) vs John Koster (R) | 4 | D+11.0 | D+2.1 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Daniel J. Seals (D) vs Robert Dold (R) | 4 | R+3.5 | R+2.2 | ✓ |
| Alabama House | Bobby N. Bright (D) vs Martha Roby (R) | 3 | D+7.1 | R+2.2 | ✗ |
| South Dakota House | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) vs Kristi Noem (R) | 7 | D+1.2 | R+2.2 | ✗ |
| Michigan House | Gary C. Peters (D) vs Andrew Rocky Raczkowski (R) | 3 | R+0.4 | D+2.5 | ✗ |
| New Jersey House | John H. Adler (D) vs Jon Runyan (R) | 6 | R+1.8 | R+2.7 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Sanford Bishop (D) vs Mike Keown (R) | 4 | D+1.1 | D+2.9 | ✓ |
| New York House | Matthew Zeller (D) vs Thomas Reed (R) | 1 | R+14.2 | R+3.4 | ✓ |
| California House | Jim Costa (D) vs Andy Vidak (R) | 4 | R+5.6 | D+3.4 | ✗ |
| New Mexico House | Martin Heinrich (D) vs Jonathan L. Barela (R) | 5 | R+0.3 | D+3.6 | ✗ |
| New York House | Michael E. McMahon (D) vs Michael G. Grimm (R) | 1 | D+14.0 | D+3.8 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Tom S. Perriello (D) vs Robert Hurt (R) | 8 | R+4.8 | R+3.8 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Jim Himes (D) vs Dan Debicella (R) | 4 | R+1.1 | D+4.0 | ✗ |
| Washington House | Suzan DelBene (D) vs David G. Reichert (R) | 4 | R+6.0 | R+4.1 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Leonard L. Boswell (D) vs Brad Zaun (R) | 3 | D+8.8 | D+4.3 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | John T. Salazar (D) vs Scott Tipton (R) | 2 | R+7.9 | R+4.3 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Jim Matheson (D) vs Morgan J. Philpot (R) | 3 | D+15.8 | D+4.4 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Governor | Vincent A. Sheheen (D) vs Nikki Haley (R) | 9 | R+9.5 | R+4.5 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts House | Bill Keating (D) vs Jeffrey Davis Perry (R) | 3 | D+1.4 | D+4.5 | ✓ |
| New York House | John Hall (D) vs Nan Hayworth (R) | 8 | EVEN | D+4.7 | ✗ |
| New York House | William L. Owens (D) vs Matthew A. Doheny (R) | 3 | D+2.1 | D+4.7 | ✓ |
| Washington Senate | Patty Murray (D) vs Dino Rossi (R) | 24 | D+3.7 | D+4.7 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Senate | Martha Coakley (D) vs Scott Brown (R) | 13 | R+3.0 | R+4.8 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Mark Schauer (D) vs Tim Walberg (R) | 5 | D+1.7 | R+4.8 | ✗ |
| Virginia House | Frederick C. Boucher (D) vs H. Morgan Griffith (R) | 3 | D+5.1 | R+4.8 | ✗ |
| Wisconsin Senate | Russ Feingold (D) vs Ron Johnson (R) | 22 | R+6.2 | R+4.8 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) vs Francisco R. Canseco (R) | 2 | R+6.6 | R+5.0 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Charles A. Wilson (D) vs Bill Johnson (R) | 1 | R+2.5 | R+5.0 | ✓ |
| Iowa House | Dave Loebsack (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | 2 | R+1.2 | D+5.1 | ✗ |
| Mississippi House | Gene Taylor (D) vs Steven Palazzo (R) | 2 | R+1.0 | R+5.1 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Kurt Schrader (D) vs L. Scott Bruun (R) | 5 | D+5.7 | D+5.3 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Tim Walz (D) vs Randy Demmer (R) | 3 | D+9.9 | D+5.3 | ✓ |
| Missouri House | Ike Skelton (D) vs Vicky Hartzler (R) | 2 | D+3.8 | R+5.3 | ✗ |
| Georgia House | James Marshall (D) vs Austin Scott (R) | 6 | R+7.0 | R+5.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Steven L. Driehaus (D) vs Steve Chabot (R) | 1 | R+11.6 | R+5.5 | ✓ |
| Nevada Senate | Harry Reid (D) vs Sharron Angle (R) | 24 | R+1.6 | D+5.7 | ✗ |
| Wisconsin Governor | Thomas M. Barrett (D) vs Scott Walker (R) | 22 | R+7.3 | R+5.8 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Denny Heck (D) vs Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) | 6 | R+6.3 | R+5.9 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs Paul Gosar (R) | 3 | R+6.2 | R+6.0 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Raúl Grijalva (D) vs Ruth McClung (R) | 1 | R+0.2 | D+6.0 | ✗ |
| Rhode Island House | David N. Cicilline (D) vs John J. Loughlin (R) | 8 | D+8.5 | D+6.0 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Bill Foster (D) vs Randy Hultgren (R) | 5 | R+1.0 | R+6.3 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts Governor | Deval Patrick (D) vs Charles D. Baker (R) | 13 | D+3.4 | D+6.4 | ✓ |
| New Mexico Governor | Diane D. Denish (D) vs Susana Martinez (R) | 13 | R+8.0 | R+6.7 | ✓ |
| California House | Ami Bera (D) vs Dan Lungren (R) | 1 | R+8.5 | R+6.9 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Patrick J. Murphy (D) vs Michael G. Fitzpatrick (R) | 6 | R+4.3 | R+7.0 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Christopher Murphy (D) vs Sam S.F. Caligiuri (R) | 5 | D+1.0 | D+7.1 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Rush Holt (D) vs Scott M. Sipprelle (R) | 2 | D+6.7 | D+7.2 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Mike McIntyre (D) vs Ilario Gregory Pantano (R) | 3 | D+4.6 | D+7.4 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | John Lynch (D) vs John A. Stephen (R) | 11 | D+8.4 | D+7.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Mark S. Critz (D) vs Tim Burns (R) | 12 | D+4.0 | D+7.7 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Julie M. Lassa (D) vs Sean Duffy (R) | 6 | R+8.0 | R+7.7 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Chad Causey (D) vs Rick Crawford (R) | 5 | R+5.3 | R+8.3 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Joseph Heath Shuler (D) vs Jeff Miller (R) | 3 | D+10.9 | D+8.7 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Ron Klein (D) vs Allen West (R) | 5 | R+1.5 | R+8.7 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Harry E. Mitchell (D) vs David Schweikert (R) | 6 | R+3.3 | R+8.8 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Dan Onorato (D) vs Thomas W. Corbett (R) | 34 | R+8.4 | R+9.0 | ✓ |
| Missouri House | Emanuel Cleaver, II (D) vs Jacob Turk (R) | 1 | D+9.0 | D+9.1 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Senate | Richard Blumenthal (D) vs Linda McMahon (R) | 23 | D+10.9 | D+9.3 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Lawrence Webb Kissell (D) vs Harold Johnson (R) | 2 | D+1.7 | D+9.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Paul E. Kanjorski (D) vs Lou Barletta (R) | 6 | R+0.8 | R+9.4 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Joe Garcia (D) vs David Rivera (R) | 2 | D+1.6 | R+9.6 | ✗ |
| Iowa Governor | Chet Culver (D) vs Terry E. Branstad (R) | 5 | R+10.8 | R+9.6 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Philip G. Hare (D) vs Robert Schilling (R) | 6 | R+4.5 | R+9.6 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin House | Steven L. Kagen (D) vs Reid J. Ribble (R) | 4 | R+4.1 | R+9.6 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Adam Smith (D) vs Richard Muri (R) | 4 | D+4.3 | D+9.7 | ✓ |
| South Carolina House | Rob Miller (D) vs Joe Wilson (R) | 1 | R+7.9 | R+9.7 | ✓ |
| Idaho House | Walt Minnick (D) vs Raúl R. Labrador (R) | 4 | D+7.5 | R+9.7 | ✗ |
| North Dakota House | Earl Pomeroy (D) vs Rick Berg (R) | 5 | R+4.2 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| New York House | Timothy H. Bishop (D) vs Randolph Altschuler (R) | 2 | D+5.8 | D+9.9 | ✓ |
| California Senate | Barbara Boxer (D) vs Carly Fiorina (R) | 38 | D+6.5 | D+10.0 | ✓ |
| Georgia Governor | Roy Barnes (D) vs J. Nathan Deal (R) | 14 | R+8.1 | R+10.1 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Baron P. Hill (D) vs Todd Young (R) | 1 | D+1.7 | R+10.1 | ✗ |
| West Virginia Senate | Joe Manchin, III (D) vs John Raese (R) | 21 | D+3.6 | D+10.1 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Michael H. Michaud (D) vs Jason J. Levesque (R) | 7 | D+12.5 | D+10.3 | ✓ |
| South Carolina House | John M. Spratt (D) vs Mick Mulvaney (R) | 1 | R+10.0 | R+10.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Christopher P. Carney (D) vs Tom Marino (R) | 9 | R+1.8 | R+10.3 | ✓ |
| New York House | Daniel B. Maffei (D) vs Ann Marie Buerkle (R) | 2 | D+6.1 | D+10.5 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Frank T. Caprio (D) vs John F. Robitaille (R) | 9 | D+4.8 | R+10.5 | ✗ |
| Massachusetts House | Barney Frank (D) vs Sean Bielat (R) | 4 | D+12.6 | D+10.5 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | John Yarmuth (D) vs Todd Lally (R) | 4 | D+11.6 | D+10.7 | ✓ |
| Virginia House | Glenn C. Nye (D) vs E. Scott Rigell (R) | 5 | R+3.3 | R+10.7 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Harry Teague (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 7 | R+3.7 | R+10.8 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | John A. Boccieri (D) vs Jim Renacci (R) | 2 | R+11.5 | R+10.8 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | Peter A. DeFazio (D) vs Arthur Robinson (R) | 2 | D+9.1 | D+10.9 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Bryan R. Lentz (D) vs Patrick Meehan (R) | 5 | R+5.0 | R+11.0 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Thomas Timothy Holden (D) vs David G. Argall (R) | 2 | D+21.5 | D+11.0 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Frank Pallone Jr. (D) vs Anna C. Little (R) | 3 | D+6.4 | D+11.0 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Gary McDowell (D) vs Dan Benishek (R) | 4 | R+3.6 | R+11.1 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Jon Hulburd (D) vs Ben Quayle (R) | 1 | D+1.9 | R+11.1 | ✗ |
| Colorado House | Betsy Markey (D) vs Cory Gardner (R) | 3 | R+7.8 | R+11.1 | ✓ |
| California House | William E. Hedrick (D) vs Ken Calvert (R) | 2 | R+6.2 | R+11.2 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Kathy Dahlkemper (D) vs Mike Kelly (R) | 4 | R+12.1 | R+11.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Betty Sutton (D) vs Tom Ganley (R) | 1 | D+5.0 | D+11.5 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Senate | Jack Conway (D) vs Rand Paul (R) | 19 | R+8.9 | R+11.5 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs Frank C. Guinta (R) | 6 | R+7.9 | R+11.6 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Ed Perlmutter (D) vs Ryan Frazier (R) | 1 | D+6.2 | D+11.7 | ✓ |
| Nevada Governor | Rory Reid (D) vs Brian E. Sandoval (R) | 21 | R+14.5 | R+11.8 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Senate | Elaine Marshall (D) vs Richard Burr (R) | 10 | R+12.9 | R+11.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona Governor | Samuel Pearson Goddard (D) vs Janice Kay Brewer (R) | 6 | R+12.7 | R+11.9 | ✓ |
| New York House | Maurice D. Hinchey (D) vs George K. Phillips (R) | 2 | D+9.5 | D+11.9 | ✓ |
| Alaska Senate | Scott T. McAdams (D) vs Joe Miller (R) | 17 | R+7.1 | R+12.1 | ✓ |
| West Virginia House | Nick J. Rahall II (D) vs Elliott E. Maynard (R) | 4 | D+11.0 | D+12.1 | ✓ |
| Maryland House | Frank M. Kratovil (D) vs Andy Harris (R) | 5 | R+5.0 | R+12.1 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Allen Boyd (D) vs Steve Southerland II (R) | 4 | R+13.4 | R+12.3 | ✓ |
| Texas Governor | Bill White (D) vs Rick Perry (R) | 11 | R+9.9 | R+12.7 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Allyson Y. Schwartz (D) vs Carson Dee Adcock (R) | 1 | D+21.4 | D+12.7 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Tarryl L. Clark (D) vs Michele Bachmann (R) | 1 | R+9.5 | R+12.7 | ✓ |
| Oregon House | David Wu (D) vs Robert Y. Cornilles (R) | 3 | D+9.6 | D+12.8 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs Steve Stivers (R) | 1 | R+10.4 | R+12.9 | ✓ |
| California Governor | Jerry Brown (D) vs Meg Whitman (R) | 39 | D+6.5 | D+12.9 | ✓ |
| Ohio House | Zachary T. Space (D) vs Bob Gibbs (R) | 1 | R+11.0 | R+13.4 | ✓ |
| Missouri Senate | Robin Carnahan (D) vs Roy Blunt (R) | 13 | R+9.4 | R+13.6 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Chellie M. Pingree (D) vs C. Peter Scontras (R) | 7 | D+9.1 | D+13.6 | ✓ |
| California House | Loretta Sanchez (D) vs Van Tran (R) | 2 | R+3.7 | D+13.7 | ✗ |
| Massachusetts House | John F. Tierney (D) vs Bill Hudak (R) | 1 | D+5.6 | D+13.9 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Thomas E. Mullins (R) | 1 | D+6.4 | D+14.0 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Manan Trivedi (D) vs Jim Gerlach (R) | 1 | R+9.2 | R+14.2 | ✓ |
| New York House | Carolyn McCarthy (D) vs Francis X. Becker (R) | 1 | R+0.9 | D+14.3 | ✗ |
| Maryland Governor | Martin O'Malley (D) vs Robert Ehrlich Jr. (R) | 7 | D+10.3 | D+14.5 | ✓ |
| Mississippi House | Travis W. Childers (D) vs Alan Nunnelee (R) | 3 | R+6.9 | R+14.5 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | John B. Callahan (D) vs Charles W. Dent (R) | 3 | R+12.3 | R+14.6 | ✓ |
| Indiana Senate | Brad Ellsworth (D) vs Daniel Coats (R) | 5 | R+19.6 | R+14.6 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Deborah Halvorson (D) vs Adam Kinzinger (R) | 4 | R+7.5 | R+14.7 | ✓ |
| Alabama Governor | Ron Sparks (D) vs Robert Julian Bentley (R) | 2 | R+15.2 | R+15.7 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | John C. Carney Jr. (D) vs Glen Urquhart (R) | 9 | D+10.7 | D+15.7 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Norman DeValois Dicks (D) vs Doug R. Cloud (R) | 1 | R+4.6 | D+16.1 | ✗ |
| Delaware Senate | Christopher A. Coons (D) vs Christine O'Donnell (R) | 13 | D+16.3 | D+16.6 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | John D. Dingell (D) vs Rob Steele (R) | 3 | D+14.3 | D+16.7 | ✓ |
| California House | Dennis A. Cardoza (D) vs Michael C. Berryhill (R) | 1 | D+5.3 | D+17.0 | ✓ |
| Hawaii Governor | Neil Abercrombie (D) vs Duke Aiona (R) | 5 | D+3.4 | D+17.1 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Michael Avery Ross (D) vs Beth Anne Rankin (R) | 2 | D+14.6 | D+17.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio Senate | Lee Fisher (D) vs Rob Portman (R) | 34 | R+14.7 | R+17.4 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Collin Peterson (D) vs Lee Byberg (R) | 1 | D+27.9 | D+17.6 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Alan Grayson (D) vs Daniel Webster (R) | 3 | R+8.1 | R+17.9 | ✓ |
| Oregon Senate | Ron Wyden (D) vs Jim Huffman (R) | 7 | D+18.2 | D+18.0 | ✓ |
| Michigan Governor | Virgil Bernero (D) vs Rick Snyder (R) | 10 | R+17.1 | R+18.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Joe Courtney (D) vs Janet Peckinpaugh (R) | 2 | D+18.4 | D+18.3 | ✓ |
| Tennessee House | Lincoln Davis (D) vs Scott DesJarlais (R) | 2 | R+4.2 | R+18.5 | ✓ |
| Georgia Senate | Michael Thurmond (D) vs Johnny Isakson (R) | 10 | R+21.8 | R+19.3 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Suzanne M. Kosmas (D) vs Sandra Adams (R) | 3 | R+10.2 | R+19.3 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Jared Polis (D) vs Stephen Bailey (R) | 1 | D+9.6 | D+19.5 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Joyce Ann Elliott (D) vs Tim Griffin (R) | 3 | R+12.3 | R+19.6 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | William Trent Van Haaften (D) vs Larry D. Bucshon (R) | 1 | R+18.6 | R+20.1 | ✓ |
| Tennessee House | Roy Brasfield Herron (D) vs Stephen Lee Fincher (R) | 3 | R+12.0 | R+20.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | John B. Larson (D) vs Ann Brickley (R) | 2 | D+16.0 | D+20.6 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Governor | Jari Askins (D) vs Mary Fallin (R) | 3 | R+19.2 | R+20.9 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Senate | Blanche Lincoln (D) vs John Boozman (R) | 10 | R+17.4 | R+21.0 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | André D. Carson (D) vs Marvin Bailey Scott (R) | 2 | D+14.2 | D+21.1 | ✓ |
| Alaska Governor | Ethan Berkowitz (D) vs Sean R. Parnell (R) | 9 | R+13.3 | R+21.4 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Tom White (D) vs Lee Terry (R) | 1 | R+7.9 | R+21.6 | ✓ |
| Michigan House | Patrick A. Miles (D) vs Justin Amash (R) | 2 | R+12.8 | R+22.2 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Raj Goyle (D) vs Mike Pompeo (R) | 5 | R+13.0 | R+22.3 | ✓ |
| South Dakota Governor | Scott N. Heidepriem (D) vs Dennis M. Daugaard (R) | 5 | R+13.1 | R+23.0 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Senate | Paul W. Hodes (D) vs Kelly Ayotte (R) | 11 | R+14.2 | R+23.2 | ✓ |
| Mississippi House | Bennie G. Thompson (D) vs William Marcy (R) | 2 | D+0.5 | D+23.8 | ✓ |
| Arizona Senate | Rodney Britz Glassman (D) vs John McCain (R) | 5 | R+19.8 | R+24.2 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Thomas Edwards (D) vs Bill Flores (R) | 4 | R+9.6 | R+25.2 | ✓ |
| Idaho Governor | Keith Allred (D) vs C.L. 'Butch' Otter (R) | 2 | R+20.7 | R+26.3 | ✓ |
| Maryland Senate | Barbara A. Mikulski (D) vs Eric Wargotz (R) | 6 | D+26.0 | D+26.4 | ✓ |
| Maine Governor | Elizabeth H. Mitchell (D) vs Paul R. LePage (R) | 13 | R+11.2 | R+26.7 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Rosa L. DeLauro (D) vs Gerald Labriola (R) | 2 | D+18.7 | D+27.4 | ✓ |
| New York Governor | Andrew Cuomo (D) vs Carl P. Paladino (R) | 24 | D+23.7 | D+27.7 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island House | Jim Langevin (D) vs Mark S. Zaccaria (R) | 5 | D+33.4 | D+28.1 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Robert E. Andrews (D) vs Dale Mark Glading (R) | 2 | D+36.4 | D+28.4 | ✓ |
| Florida Senate | Kendrick B. Meek (D) vs Marco Rubio (R) | 29 | R+22.4 | R+28.7 | ✓ |
| Tennessee House | John Wolfe (D) vs Chuck Fleischmann (R) | 1 | R+27.1 | R+28.8 | ✓ |
| Utah Senate | Samuel Frank Granato (D) vs Mike Lee (R) | 5 | R+24.3 | R+28.8 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Corrine Brown (D) vs Michael F. Yost (R) | 1 | D+4.3 | D+29.1 | ✓ |
| California House | Loraine Goodwin (D) vs Jeff Denham (R) | 1 | R+29.5 | R+29.4 | ✓ |
| Indiana House | Thomas E. Hayhurst (D) vs Marlin A. Stutzman (R) | 2 | R+4.8 | R+29.6 | ✓ |
| Alabama Senate | William G. Barnes (D) vs Richard C. Shelby (R) | 1 | R+28.8 | R+30.5 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Lois K. Herr (D) vs Joseph R. Pitts (R) | 1 | R+7.9 | R+30.8 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Governor | Mike Beebe (D) vs Jim H. Keet (R) | 8 | D+20.8 | D+30.8 | ✓ |
| Iowa Senate | Roxanne Conlin (D) vs Chuck Grassley (R) | 3 | R+26.5 | R+31.1 | ✓ |
| Kansas Governor | Tom Holland (D) vs Sam Brownback (R) | 3 | R+26.3 | R+31.1 | ✓ |
| Tennessee Governor | Mike McWherter (D) vs William Edward Haslam (R) | 3 | R+26.8 | R+31.9 | ✓ |
| Utah Governor | Peter Corroon (D) vs Gary Richard Herbert (R) | 5 | R+29.4 | R+32.2 | ✓ |
| Vermont House | Peter Welch (D) vs Paul Beaudry (R) | 2 | D+34.1 | D+32.5 | ✓ |
| Missouri House | Scott Eckersley (D) vs Billy Long (R) | 1 | R+29.5 | R+33.0 | ✓ |
| Vermont Senate | Patrick J. Leahy (D) vs Leonard Wheeler Britton (R) | 2 | D+37.7 | D+33.4 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Senate | Alvin Greene (D) vs Jim DeMint (R) | 4 | R+36.9 | R+33.8 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | Douglass S. Heckman (D) vs Rob Woodall (R) | 1 | R+26.7 | R+34.1 | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | Gary S. Stein (D) vs Frank A. LoBiondo (R) | 2 | R+32.3 | R+34.6 | ✓ |
| California House | Michael M. Honda (D) vs Scott Kirkland (R) | 2 | D+11.4 | D+35.2 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Janice D. Schakowsky (D) vs Joel B. Pollak (R) | 1 | D+15.0 | D+35.2 | ✓ |
| New York Senate | Charles E. Schumer (D) vs Jay Townsend (R) | 43 | D+25.7 | D+38.0 | ✓ |
| Alaska House | Harry T. Crawford (D) vs Don Young (R) | 2 | R+22.8 | R+38.4 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | Diana DeGette (D) vs Mike Fallon (R) | 1 | D+5.5 | D+38.7 | ✓ |
| Colorado Governor | John Wright Hickenlooper (D) vs Dan Maes (R) | 21 | D+36.2 | D+39.9 | ✓ |
| Wyoming Governor | Leslie Petersen (D) vs Matt Hansen Mead (R) | 1 | R+32.5 | R+42.7 | ✓ |
| Kansas Senate | Lisa Johnston (D) vs Jerry Moran (R) | 3 | R+38.1 | R+43.7 | ✓ |
| Idaho House | Mike Crawford (D) vs Mike Simpson (R) | 2 | R+38.8 | R+44.4 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Senate | Jim Rogers (D) vs Tom Coburn (R) | 2 | R+39.0 | R+44.5 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | David Whitaker (D) vs Steve Womack (R) | 1 | R+33.5 | R+44.9 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Morgan E. Bowen (D) vs Rob Bishop (R) | 3 | R+41.3 | R+45.3 | ✓ |
| Wyoming House | David Wendt (D) vs Cynthia M. Lummis (R) | 1 | R+28.0 | R+45.9 | ✓ |
| Idaho Senate | Tom Sullivan (D) vs Mike Crapo (R) | 2 | R+41.6 | R+46.3 | ✓ |
| Hawaii House | Mazie Hirono (D) vs John W. Willoughby (R) | 2 | D+33.2 | D+46.9 | ✓ |
| Nebraska Governor | Mike Meister (D) vs Dave Heineman (R) | 1 | R+38.8 | R+47.8 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Karen E. Hyer (D) vs Jason Chaffetz (R) | 3 | R+43.0 | R+49.4 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Alan E. Jilka (D) vs Tim Huelskamp (R) | 1 | R+32.6 | R+50.9 | ✓ |
| Hawaii Senate | Daniel K. Inouye (D) vs Cam Cavasso (R) | 3 | D+31.5 | D+53.2 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Senate | Tracy Potter (D) vs John Hoeven (R) | 2 | R+41.2 | R+54.0 | ✓ |