Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2015, the model called 3/4 of these races right (75%) using only pre-2015 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Governor | Jack Conway (D) vs Matthew G. Bevin (R) | 6 | D+0.9 | R+8.7 | ✗ |
| Louisiana Governor | John Bel Edwards (D) vs David Vitter (R) | 17 | D+10.5 | D+12.2 | ✓ |
| Mississippi Governor | Robert Gray (D) vs Phil Bryant (R) | 1 | R+41.8 | R+33.9 | ✓ |
| Mississippi House | Walter Howard Zinn (D) vs Trent Kelly (R) | 1 | R+20.0 | R+40.0 | ✓ |