Past elections
Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.
Year
Race type
State
In 2004, the model called 132/142 of these races right (93%) using only pre-2004 data.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Result | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 159 | R+1.3 | R+2.4 | ✓ |
| Washington Governor | Christine Gregoire (D) vs Dino Rossi (R) | 9 | D+1.4 | EVEN | ✗ |
| Wisconsin President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 32 | D+0.8 | D+0.4 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Charlie Melancon (D) vs William Tauzin (R) | 2 | R+4.2 | D+0.5 | ✗ |
| New York House | Brian Higgins (D) vs Nancy A. Naples (R) | 1 | D+3.1 | D+0.7 | ✓ |
| Iowa President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 31 | D+1.0 | R+0.7 | ✗ |
| New Mexico President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 17 | D+0.3 | R+0.8 | ✗ |
| Florida Senate | Betty Castor (D) vs Mel Martinez (R) | 30 | D+0.8 | R+1.1 | ✗ |
| South Dakota Senate | Tom Daschle (D) vs John R. Thune (R) | 10 | R+1.5 | R+1.1 | ✓ |
| Kentucky Senate | Daniel Mongiardo (D) vs Jim Bunning (R) | 10 | R+9.5 | R+1.3 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire President | John Kerry (D) vs Howard Dean (R) | 23 | D+1.8 | D+1.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 44 | R+1.7 | R+2.1 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Governor | John Lynch (D) vs Craig Benson (R) | 10 | R+0.6 | D+2.1 | ✗ |
| Pennsylvania President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 47 | D+3.4 | D+2.5 | ✓ |
| Nevada President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 22 | R+4.5 | R+2.6 | ✓ |
| Missouri Governor | Claire McCaskill (D) vs Matt Blunt (R) | 6 | R+3.4 | R+3.0 | ✓ |
| Alaska Senate | Tony Knowles (D) vs Lisa Murkowski (R) | 5 | R+0.8 | R+3.0 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Melissa Bean (D) vs Philip Crane (R) | 3 | R+5.3 | D+3.4 | ✗ |
| Michigan President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 29 | D+5.1 | D+3.4 | ✓ |
| Minnesota President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 26 | D+4.0 | D+3.5 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Thomas Edwards (D) vs Arlene Reid Wohlgemuth (R) | 1 | D+8.5 | D+3.8 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | John T. Salazar (D) vs Greg Walcher (R) | 5 | D+6.8 | D+4.0 | ✓ |
| Oregon President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 20 | D+5.5 | D+4.2 | ✓ |
| Montana Governor | Brian Schweitzer (D) vs Bob Brown (R) | 3 | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Senate | Erskine Bowles (D) vs Richard Burr (R) | 15 | R+1.9 | R+4.6 | ✓ |
| Colorado President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 26 | R+3.7 | R+4.7 | ✓ |
| Colorado Senate | Ken Salazar (D) vs Pete Coors (R) | 23 | D+2.9 | D+4.8 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Dave Ross (D) vs David G. Reichert (R) | 5 | R+6.1 | R+4.8 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Diane Farrell (D) vs Christopher H. Shays (R) | 2 | R+6.4 | R+4.9 | ✓ |
| Florida President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 50 | R+0.5 | R+5.0 | ✓ |
| Delaware Governor | Ruth Minner (D) vs William S. Lee (R) | 2 | D+9.4 | D+5.1 | ✓ |
| M2 President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 3 | R+0.1 | D+5.8 | ✗ |
| Colorado House | Stanley T. Matsunaka (D) vs Marilyn N. Musgrave (R) | 1 | R+17.9 | R+6.3 | ✓ |
| New Jersey President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 23 | D+6.3 | D+6.7 | ✓ |
| Washington President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 19 | D+6.7 | D+7.2 | ✓ |
| Missouri President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 18 | R+5.4 | R+7.2 | ✓ |
| South Dakota House | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) vs Larry Diedrich (R) | 7 | D+2.9 | D+7.5 | ✓ |
| Delaware President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 2 | D+6.4 | D+7.6 | ✓ |
| Indiana Governor | Joseph Kernan (D) vs Mitchell Daniels, Jr. (R) | 7 | R+7.1 | R+7.7 | ✓ |
| Minnesota House | Patty Wetterling (D) vs Mark R. Kennedy (R) | 3 | R+13.4 | R+8.1 | ✓ |
| Virginia President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 8 | R+6.3 | R+8.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut House | Jim Sullivan (D) vs Robert R. Simmons (R) | 3 | R+5.5 | R+8.4 | ✓ |
| Hawaii President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 3 | R+0.4 | D+8.7 | ✗ |
| New Mexico House | Richard M. Romero (D) vs Heather A. Wilson (R) | 2 | R+6.1 | R+8.9 | ✓ |
| Maine President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 9 | D+5.7 | D+9.0 | ✓ |
| South Carolina Senate | Inez Tenenbaum (D) vs Jim DeMint (R) | 12 | R+8.0 | R+9.6 | ✓ |
| Arkansas President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 15 | R+4.5 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | Patricia R. Keever (D) vs Charles H. Taylor (R) | 3 | R+0.1 | R+9.8 | ✓ |
| Louisiana House | Willie L. Mount (D) vs Charles W. Boustany Jr. (R) | 1 | R+25.2 | R+9.9 | ✓ |
| California President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 17 | D+10.6 | D+9.9 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Jonas Frost (D) vs Pete Sessions (R) | 2 | R+3.8 | R+10.3 | ✓ |
| Illinois President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 9 | D+10.8 | D+10.3 | ✓ |
| Connecticut President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 2 | D+8.0 | D+10.4 | ✓ |
| Arizona President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 13 | R+11.3 | R+10.5 | ✓ |
| Florida House | Jan Schneider (D) vs Katherine Harris (R) | 1 | R+7.6 | R+10.6 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Joe Hoeffel (D) vs Arlen Specter (R) | 26 | R+18.3 | R+10.6 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Matt Connealy (D) vs Jeff Fortenberry (R) | 3 | R+5.9 | R+11.2 | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Senate | Russ Feingold (D) vs Tim Michels (R) | 11 | D+16.8 | D+11.2 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Dennis Moore (D) vs Kris W. Kobach (R) | 1 | D+10.8 | D+11.5 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma Senate | Brad R. Carson (D) vs Tom Coburn (R) | 26 | R+2.6 | R+11.5 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Jim Matheson (D) vs John Swallow (R) | 6 | D+14.5 | D+11.5 | ✓ |
| Arkansas Senate | Blanche Lincoln (D) vs Jim Holt (R) | 8 | D+18.0 | D+11.8 | ✓ |
| Colorado House | David J. Thomas (D) vs Bob Beauprez (R) | 2 | R+8.0 | R+11.9 | ✓ |
| M1 President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 3 | D+4.5 | D+11.9 | ✓ |
| Washington Senate | Patty Murray (D) vs George R. Nethercutt (R) | 11 | D+12.2 | D+12.2 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | Albert Ben Chandler (D) vs Alice Forgy Kerr (R) | 4 | D+7.7 | D+12.3 | ✓ |
| North Carolina President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 14 | R+8.5 | R+12.4 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Nicholas V. Lampson (D) vs Ted Poe (R) | 1 | R+5.0 | R+12.6 | ✓ |
| North Carolina Governor | Mike Easley (D) vs Patrick J. Ballantine (R) | 9 | D+15.3 | D+12.7 | ✓ |
| West Virginia President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 11 | R+5.8 | R+12.9 | ✓ |
| Maryland President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 8 | D+11.5 | D+13.0 | ✓ |
| Missouri House | Emanuel Cleaver, II (D) vs Jeanne Patterson (R) | 1 | D+4.1 | D+13.1 | ✓ |
| Missouri Senate | Nancy Farmer (D) vs Christopher S. Bond (R) | 6 | R+21.1 | R+13.3 | ✓ |
| New York House | Frank J. Barbaro (D) vs Vito J. Fossella (R) | 1 | R+25.5 | R+14.0 | ✓ |
| Nevada House | Tom Gallagher (D) vs Jon C. Porter (R) | 6 | R+12.7 | R+14.1 | ✓ |
| Tennessee President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 15 | R+13.6 | R+14.3 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Allyson Y. Schwartz (D) vs Melissa Brown (R) | 2 | D+14.6 | D+14.5 | ✓ |
| Louisiana President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 7 | R+18.3 | R+14.5 | ✓ |
| Arkansas House | Victor F. Snyder (D) vs Marvin Parks (R) | 3 | D+20.8 | D+16.3 | ✓ |
| Utah Governor | Scott M. Matheson, Jr. (D) vs Jon M. Huntsman, Jr. (R) | 6 | R+13.6 | R+16.4 | ✓ |
| Georgia President | John Kerry (D) vs John Edwards (R) | 9 | R+14.1 | R+16.6 | ✓ |
| South Carolina President | John Edwards (D) vs John Kerry (R) | 9 | R+17.4 | R+17.1 | ✓ |
| Illinois House | Tari Renner (D) vs Gerald C. Weller (R) | 3 | R+16.8 | R+17.3 | ✓ |
| Georgia Senate | Denise Majette (D) vs Johnny Isakson (R) | 8 | R+16.9 | R+17.9 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Charles W. Stenholm (D) vs Randy Neugebauer (R) | 1 | R+10.0 | R+18.4 | ✓ |
| New York President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 10 | D+17.2 | D+18.4 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Michael H. Michaud (D) vs Brian N. Hamel (R) | 2 | D+13.6 | D+18.6 | ✓ |
| North Dakota House | Earl Pomeroy (D) vs Duane Sand (R) | 1 | D+27.5 | D+19.1 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Joe Driscoll (D) vs Charles W. Dent (R) | 1 | R+32.9 | R+19.2 | ✓ |
| Washington House | Donald K. Barbieri (D) vs Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) | 3 | R+15.4 | R+19.4 | ✓ |
| Maine House | Thomas H. Allen (D) vs Charlie Summers (R) | 2 | D+18.3 | D+19.5 | ✓ |
| Mississippi President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 1 | R+12.0 | R+19.7 | ✓ |
| Kentucky President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 7 | R+20.3 | R+19.9 | ✓ |
| California Senate | Barbara Boxer (D) vs Bill Jones (R) | 11 | D+19.4 | D+19.9 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Paul W. Hodes (D) vs Charles Bass (R) | 2 | R+21.7 | R+20.1 | ✓ |
| Vermont President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 1 | D+9.6 | D+20.1 | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | Thomas Timothy Holden (D) vs Scott G. Paterno (R) | 2 | D+11.6 | D+20.2 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Gary K. King (D) vs Stevan Pearce (R) | 2 | R+10.9 | R+20.4 | ✓ |
| Montana President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 4 | R+23.1 | R+20.5 | ✓ |
| Indiana President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 7 | R+21.1 | R+20.7 | ✓ |
| Rhode Island President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 4 | D+17.0 | D+20.8 | ✓ |
| South Dakota President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 7 | R+19.4 | R+21.5 | ✓ |
| Arizona House | Paul Babbitt (D) vs Richard Renzi (R) | 2 | R+20.5 | R+22.3 | ✓ |
| Kentucky House | Tony Miller (D) vs Anne Meagher Northup (R) | 5 | R+18.1 | R+22.5 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma House | Doug Dodd (D) vs John A. Sullivan (R) | 3 | R+25.3 | R+22.6 | ✓ |
| Texas President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 4 | R+23.1 | R+22.9 | ✓ |
| Texas House | Max A. Sandlin (D) vs Louie Gohmert (R) | 1 | D+2.0 | R+23.8 | ✗ |
| Indiana Senate | Evan Bayh (D) vs Marvin Bailey Scott (R) | 5 | D+31.6 | D+24.4 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Nancy P. Thompson (D) vs Lee Terry (R) | 2 | R+26.2 | R+24.9 | ✓ |
| Massachusetts President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 1 | D+39.5 | D+25.0 | ✓ |
| Kansas President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 5 | R+24.6 | R+25.4 | ✓ |
| Alaska President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 1 | R+30.7 | R+25.6 | ✓ |
| Alabama President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 6 | R+22.0 | R+25.6 | ✓ |
| Georgia House | James Marshall (D) vs Calder B. Clay (R) | 1 | D+27.6 | D+25.8 | ✓ |
| Nevada Senate | Harry Reid (D) vs Richard Ziser (R) | 8 | D+24.2 | D+25.9 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire House | Justin Nadeau (D) vs Jeb E. Bradley (R) | 2 | R+24.6 | R+26.8 | ✓ |
| North Dakota President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 2 | R+24.3 | R+27.4 | ✓ |
| Ohio Senate | Eric D. Fingerhut (D) vs George V. Voinovich (R) | 18 | R+25.9 | R+27.7 | ✓ |
| West Virginia Governor | Joe Manchin, III (D) vs Monty Warner (R) | 1 | D+31.8 | D+29.5 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Beau Babka (D) vs Chris Cannon (R) | 4 | R+27.8 | R+30.9 | ✓ |
| Maryland Senate | Barbara A. Mikulski (D) vs E. J. Pipkin (R) | 2 | D+31.1 | D+31.1 | ✓ |
| Oklahoma President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 18 | R+28.8 | R+31.1 | ✓ |
| Montana House | Tracy Velazquez (D) vs Denny Rehberg (R) | 2 | R+34.7 | R+31.6 | ✓ |
| New Hampshire Senate | Doris R. Haddock (D) vs Judd Gregg (R) | 10 | R+34.1 | R+32.5 | ✓ |
| Nebraska President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 3 | R+30.5 | R+33.2 | ✓ |
| Connecticut Senate | Christopher J. Dodd (D) vs Jack C. Orchulli (R) | 1 | D+47.2 | D+34.2 | ✓ |
| Kansas House | Michael Kinard (D) vs Todd Tiahrt (R) | 2 | R+34.5 | R+35.0 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Senate | Byron L. Dorgan (D) vs Mike Liffrig (R) | 1 | D+50.4 | D+36.6 | ✓ |
| New York Senate | Charles E. Schumer (D) vs Howard Mills (R) | 3 | D+55.5 | D+37.1 | ✓ |
| New Mexico House | Tom Udall (D) vs Gregory M. Tucker (R) | 1 | D+40.5 | D+37.4 | ✓ |
| Idaho President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 1 | R+32.5 | R+38.1 | ✓ |
| Utah House | Steven Thompson (D) vs Rob Bishop (R) | 4 | R+35.0 | R+38.8 | ✓ |
| Delaware House | Paul Donnelly (D) vs Michael N. Castle (R) | 1 | R+44.0 | R+39.4 | ✓ |
| Wyoming President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 1 | R+38.5 | R+39.8 | ✓ |
| Utah Senate | R. Paul Van Dam (D) vs Robert F. Bennett (R) | 5 | R+38.5 | R+40.3 | ✓ |
| Kansas Senate | Lee Jones (D) vs Sam Brownback (R) | 2 | R+32.5 | R+41.7 | ✓ |
| Iowa Senate | Art Small (D) vs Chuck Grassley (R) | 4 | R+41.1 | R+42.3 | ✓ |
| Illinois Senate | Barack Obama (D) vs Alan Keyes (R) | 8 | D+45.4 | D+42.9 | ✓ |
| North Dakota Governor | Joseph A Satrom (D) vs John Hoeven (R) | 1 | R+44.7 | R+43.9 | ✓ |
| Utah President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 5 | R+41.6 | R+45.5 | ✓ |
| Nebraska House | Donna J. Anderson (D) vs Thomas William Osborne (R) | 1 | R+63.5 | R+76.9 | ✓ |
| DC President | John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R) | 1 | D+67.5 | D+79.8 | ✓ |