Roanoke College
Graded against the actual result across 21 races (from 32 polls, through 2025).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 18 races Roanoke College actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | 4.84 | 72% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 3.45 | 100% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (21)
Each race Roanoke College polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 VA Governor | D+10.0 | D+15.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA President | D+10.0 | D+5.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2024 VA Senate | D+11.0 | D+8.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2021 VA Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2020 VA President | D+11.0 | D+10.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020 VA Senate | D+16.0 | D+12.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2017 VA Governor | EVEN | D+8.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 2016 VA President | D+7.0 | D+5.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014 VA Senate | D+10.0 | D+0.8 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2013 VA Governor | D+15.0 | D+2.5 | 12.5 | ✓ |
| 2012 VA President | R+5.0 | D+3.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 2012 VA Senate | R+5.0 | D+5.9 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 2010 VA-5 House | R+6.0 | R+3.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2009 VA Governor | R+16.0 | R+17.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2008 VA President | D+9.0 | D+6.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2008 VA Senate | D+35.0 | D+31.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2006 VA Senate | R+3.0 | D+0.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2005 VA Governor | D+8.0 | D+5.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2001 VA Governor | D+9.0 | D+5.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2000 VA President | R+2.0 | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2000 VA Senate | R+6.0 | R+4.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 19 | 5.34 | +0.28 | 74% |
| 3–6 wk | 7 | 4.20 | -1.50 | 86% |
| 6–9 wk | 6 | 5.63 | -0.51 | 100% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 4 | 7.0 | R+2.9 |
| 2013 | 3 | 5.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.9 | D+4.9 |
| 2017 | 3 | 5.6 | R+5.6 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.