Pollsters
Every pollster graded on its final poll before each election, over the full record 1998–2025 — not capped to the forecaster era. The grade is skill vs. the field: how its poll compared to other pollsters on the same races, so no one is rewarded for polling easy blowouts. The VotePredictor Elections model (highlighted) aggregates all of them, so it tops the board — that's the value of averaging. Pick an office; click a column to sort, or a pollster's name for its accuracy by time to election and its record by cycle.
Difficulty-adjusted skill, with uncertainty
Our main rating. A Bayesian two-way model separates race difficulty (from how every pollster did on each race) from each pollster's skill, with a 90% credible interval (the bar) that's wide when a pollster has few final calls. Ranked by a conservative estimate, so a great average over a handful of races can't outrank a proven one — and VotePredictor Elections, which forecasts every race, has the tightest interval. Pick an office; lower (left) miss is better.
| # | Pollster | Races | Avg miss (pts) | 90% range (wider = less data) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Electionsour model | 1883 | 5.0 | |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | 522 | 5.1 | |
| 3 | AtlasIntel | 37 | 4.8 | |
| 4 | Siena College | 75 | 4.9 | |
| 5 | Emerson College | 238 | 5.2 | |
| 6 | Cygnal | 55 | 5.1 | |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | 145 | 5.2 | |
| 8 | Research & Polling Inc. | 45 | 5.1 | |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 361 | 5.4 | |
| 10 | Selzer | 50 | 5.2 | |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | 297 | 5.5 | |
| 12 | Harris Insights & Analytics | 126 | 5.5 | |
| 13 | Research Co. | 81 | 5.5 | |
| 14 | EPIC-MRA | 38 | 5.5 | |
| 15 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 370 | 5.8 | |
| 16 | Dan Jones & Associates | 42 | 5.5 | |
| 17 | University of Connecticut | 25 | 5.5 | |
| 18 | YouGov | 432 | 5.9 | |
| 19 | Monmouth University | 114 | 5.8 | |
| 20 | Rasmussen Reports | 125 | 5.8 | |
| 21 | The Washington Post | 56 | 5.7 | |
| 22 | Suffolk University | 130 | 5.8 | |
| 23 | Tarrance Group | 63 | 5.7 | |
| 24 | Trafalgar Group | 87 | 5.8 | |
| 25 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 61 | 5.7 | |
| 26 | Civiqs | 53 | 5.7 | |
| 27 | Big Village | 92 | 5.8 | |
| 28 | Muhlenberg College | 26 | 5.7 | |
| 29 | Pan Atlantic Research | 36 | 5.7 | |
| 30 | Vox Populi Polling | 26 | 5.7 | |
| 31 | Marist College | 145 | 5.9 | |
| 32 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 31 | 5.7 | |
| 33 | University of New Hampshire | 91 | 5.9 | |
| 34 | We Ask America | 49 | 5.8 | |
| 35 | RT Strategies | 54 | 5.8 | |
| 36 | Elway Research | 26 | 5.8 | |
| 37 | Gallup | 38 | 5.8 | |
| 38 | Quinnipiac University | 152 | 6.0 | |
| 39 | Fleming & Associates | 25 | 5.8 | |
| 40 | Data for Progress | 69 | 6.0 | |
| 41 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 52 | 5.9 | |
| 42 | Grove Insight | 45 | 5.9 | |
| 43 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | 31 | 5.9 | |
| 44 | Morning Consult | 50 | 6.0 | |
| 45 | Ipsos | 122 | 6.1 | |
| 46 | Magellan Strategies | 25 | 6.0 | |
| 47 | Market Shares Corp. | 33 | 6.1 | |
| 48 | OnMessage Inc. | 48 | 6.2 | |
| 49 | SSRS | 49 | 6.2 | |
| 50 | Change Research | 97 | 6.3 | |
| 51 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 26 | 6.1 | |
| 52 | Global Strategy Group | 82 | 6.3 | |
| 53 | Montana State University Billings | 29 | 6.1 | |
| 54 | RMG Research | 29 | 6.2 | |
| 55 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 33 | 6.2 | |
| 56 | The Polling Company Inc. | 25 | 6.2 | |
| 57 | Benenson Strategy Group | 34 | 6.2 | |
| 58 | InsiderAdvantage | 73 | 6.3 | |
| 59 | Los Angeles Times | 27 | 6.2 | |
| 60 | National Research | 30 | 6.3 | |
| 61 | WPA Intelligence | 33 | 6.3 | |
| 62 | Remington Research Group | 39 | 6.3 | |
| 63 | PSB Research | 48 | 6.4 | |
| 64 | St. Pete Polls | 26 | 6.3 | |
| 65 | DCCC | 35 | 6.3 | |
| 66 | GBAO | 41 | 6.4 | |
| 67 | SurveyMonkey | 156 | 6.6 | |
| 68 | GQR | 87 | 6.5 | |
| 69 | Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | 126 | 6.6 | |
| 70 | ccAdvertising | 81 | 6.6 | |
| 71 | Zogby Analytics | 191 | 6.7 | |
| 72 | Impact Research | 74 | 6.6 | |
| 73 | Swayable | 43 | 6.6 | |
| 74 | Normington, Petts & Associates | 49 | 6.7 | |
| 75 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 86 | 6.8 | |
| 76 | Public Opinion Strategies | 161 | 6.9 | |
| 77 | Moore Information Group | 38 | 7.0 | |
| 78 | American Research Group | 203 | 7.2 | |
| 79 | Digital Research | 37 | 7.0 | |
| 80 | Lucid | 26 | 7.0 | |
| 81 | Targoz Market Research | 26 | 7.0 | |
| 82 | Lake Research Partners | 35 | 7.1 | |
| 83 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 33 | 7.2 | |
| 84 | Mellman Group | 42 | 7.3 | |
| 85 | McLaughlin & Associates | 63 | 7.6 |
Full table — grades, house effects & field score
The complete record with letter grades, house effects, and skill vs. the field (the office-balanced overall). Click a column to sort, or a pollster's name to drill in.
| #▲ | Pollster | Grade | Races | vs field | Avg miss | House effect | Called right | Last graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections model | A+ | 308 | -1.9 | 3.2 | D+0.2 | 96% | 2025 |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | A+ | 23 | -1.4 | 1.5 | D+0.5 | 83% | 2024 |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | A | 29 | -1.2 | 2.6 | R+0.5 | 72% | 2024 |
| 4 | Emerson College | A | 65 | -0.8 | 3.9 | D+1.8 | 79% | 2024 |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | A | 104 | -0.8 | 5.5 | D+4.2 | 92% | 2020 |
| 6 | Selzer | A- | 17 | -0.8 | 3.4 | D+3.0 | 77% | 2024 |
| 7 | Harris Insights & Analytics | A- | 52 | -0.7 | 3.8 | D+1.1 | 79% | 2024 |
| 8 | Ipsos | A- | 65 | -0.6 | 5.1 | D+2.8 | 83% | 2024 |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | A- | 68 | -0.5 | 3.6 | D+1.2 | 83% | 2024 |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | A- | 126 | -0.5 | 3.7 | R+0.5 | 92% | 2024 |
| 11 | Market Shares Corp. | B+ | 14 | -0.5 | 3.2 | R+0.3 | 79% | 2012 |
| 12 | Rasmussen Reports | B+ | 37 | -0.4 | 3.4 | D+1.0 | 80% | 2024 |
| 13 | Change Research | B+ | 18 | -0.4 | 4.5 | D+3.0 | 81% | 2024 |
| 14 | We Ask America | B+ | 14 | -0.4 | 2.4 | D+0.3 | 93% | 2016 |
| 15 | Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies | B+ | 48 | -0.3 | 4.0 | D+1.4 | 81% | 2024 |
| 16 | Grove Insight | B+ | 12 | -0.3 | 3.0 | R+1.2 | 92% | 2012 |
| 17 | Data for Progress | B+ | 24 | -0.3 | 4.1 | D+3.9 | 75% | 2024 |
| 18 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | B+ | 139 | -0.3 | 4.4 | R+1.7 | 87% | 2012 |
| 19 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | B | 12 | -0.2 | 3.2 | D+0.0 | 38% | 2024 |
| 20 | Suffolk University | B | 36 | -0.2 | 3.7 | D+1.8 | 78% | 2024 |
| 21 | RMG Research | B | 14 | -0.2 | 5.3 | D+4.5 | 75% | 2024 |
| 22 | Big Village | B | 33 | -0.2 | 3.5 | R+0.5 | 76% | 2024 |
| 23 | YouGov | B | 165 | -0.1 | 5.1 | D+1.4 | 90% | 2024 |
| 24 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | B | 18 | -0.1 | 4.2 | D+0.8 | 75% | 2024 |
| 25 | FTI Consulting | B | 13 | -0.1 | 3.6 | R+2.2 | 100% | 2012 |
| 26 | Morning Consult | B | 28 | -0.0 | 4.1 | D+4.0 | 79% | 2024 |
| 27 | Research Co. | B | 21 | -0.0 | 4.4 | D+4.1 | 79% | 2024 |
| 28 | Monmouth University | B- | 27 | +0.0 | 4.8 | D+4.3 | 65% | 2024 |
| 29 | Opinion Dynamics | B- | 12 | +0.0 | 3.6 | R+1.1 | 63% | 2008 |
| 30 | OnMessage Inc. | B- | 13 | +0.0 | 3.9 | R+0.4 | 89% | 2024 |
| 31 | Remington Research Group | B- | 12 | +0.1 | 5.8 | D+3.8 | 75% | 2024 |
| 32 | Marist College | B- | 49 | +0.1 | 4.0 | D+1.6 | 71% | 2024 |
| 33 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | B- | 90 | +0.1 | 4.7 | D+0.6 | 91% | 2020 |
| 34 | GQR | B- | 15 | +0.1 | 4.4 | D+2.7 | 73% | 2016 |
| 35 | McLaughlin & Associates | B- | 13 | +0.1 | 3.9 | R+2.7 | 69% | 2016 |
| 36 | The Washington Post | C+ | 28 | +0.1 | 3.8 | D+2.1 | 70% | 2024 |
| 37 | Civiqs | C+ | 16 | +0.2 | 4.9 | D+4.7 | 78% | 2020 |
| 38 | Zogby Analytics | C+ | 54 | +0.2 | 4.0 | D+0.1 | 82% | 2020 |
| 39 | University of New Hampshire | C+ | 17 | +0.2 | 4.1 | D+2.3 | 94% | 2024 |
| 40 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | C+ | 19 | +0.2 | 4.2 | D+4.1 | 79% | 2024 |
| 41 | Los Angeles Times | C+ | 13 | +0.2 | 4.0 | R+0.3 | 73% | 2008 |
| 42 | InsiderAdvantage | C | 31 | +0.3 | 4.1 | R+0.6 | 74% | 2024 |
| 43 | Swayable | C | 28 | +0.3 | 5.4 | D+4.8 | 93% | 2020 |
| 44 | The New York Times/Siena College | C | 35 | +0.4 | 4.9 | D+4.5 | 66% | 2024 |
| 45 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | C | 19 | +0.4 | 5.7 | D+5.3 | 79% | 2020 |
| 46 | Quinnipiac University | C- | 51 | +0.5 | 4.8 | D+2.2 | 80% | 2024 |
| 47 | Gallup | C- | 18 | +0.6 | 4.2 | R+0.3 | 67% | 2012 |
| 48 | SSRS | C- | 18 | +0.8 | 5.6 | D+5.3 | 56% | 2024 |
| 49 | Public Opinion Strategies | D | 19 | +1.2 | 6.0 | R+1.8 | 68% | 2020 |
| 50 | Lucid | D | 14 | +1.2 | 7.1 | D+7.0 | 57% | 2016 |
| 51 | American Research Group | F | 167 | +1.5 | 6.2 | D+0.1 | 88% | 2020 |
- Grade — letter rating, higher is better (A+ best), from the skill-vs-field score.
- vs field — points better/worse than other pollsters on the same races (leave-one-out). Negative is better — it beat the field. This is what the grade ranks on.
- Avg miss — each pollster's actual average miss in points across its final calls, for context. Lower is better, but it's heavily influenced by which races they polled (easy vs. close) and by sample size — the Grade / vs-field columns adjust for that, this one doesn't.
- Races — races scored: a pollster's final poll in each (the model's forecast in each). President is counted by state.
- House effect — average partisan lean; D+ overstates Democrats, R+ overstates Republicans.
- Called right — share of races where the winner was called. Intuitive, but mostly reflects how lopsided the races were, not skill.
The VotePredictor Elections row (highlighted) is our own forecast, graded the same way. Its vs-field score is its prediction vs. the pollsters who polled those same races — it beats the average pollster (it aggregates them, so that's expected). Its absolute Avg error looks higher because it forecasts every race, including the House-heavy, hardest-to-call set — which is exactly why grading on skill-vs-field, not raw error, is the fairer comparison. To rank pollsters against forecasters head-to-head, see the combined board.
Compare on common races
The fairest test when coverage differs: pick pollsters and they're all scored on the exact same races — the ones they all polled (the head-to-head, generalized), by final-poll margin error. VotePredictor forecasts every race, so adding it never shrinks the set; adding a pollster that polled few races does. The list shows the most prolific pollsters.
Everyone scored on the 99 races all 4 selected cover — identical races, exactly apples-to-apples.
| # | Name | Avg miss (pts) ▾ | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | 2.7 | 92% |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | 3.7 | 91% |
| 3 | YouGov | 4.0 | 93% |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 4.2 | 85% |
All pollsters, A–Z
Every pollster with a record on file, including those with too few graded races to rank on the boards above.
- Alaska Survey Research
- American Research Group
- American Viewpoint
- Angus Reid Global
- AtlasIntel
- Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute
- Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
- Benenson Strategy Group
- Big Village
- Blum & Weprin Associates
- CBS News
- CBS News/The New York Times
- ccAdvertising
- Change Research
- Christopher Newport University
- Ciruli Associates
- Civiqs
- Clarity Campaign Labs
- Clout Research
- co/efficient
- Columbus Dispatch
- Cygnal
- Dan Jones & Associates
- Data for Progress
- Data Orbital
- DCCC
- DFM Research
- DHM Research
- Digital Research
- East Carolina University
- Elway Research
- EMC Research
- Emerson College
- EPIC-MRA
- Fairleigh Dickinson University
- Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)
- Fleming & Associates
- FM3 Research
- Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research
- FTI Consulting
- Gallup
- Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
- GBAO
- GfK Group
- Glengariff Group
- Global Strategy Group
- GQR
- Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies
- Grove Insight
- Harper Polling
- Harris Insights & Analytics
- Harstad Strategic Research
- Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies
- Hendrix College
- Impact Research
- InsiderAdvantage
- Ipsos
- JMC Analytics
- Lake Research Partners
- Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group
- Landmark Communications
- Leger
- Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center
- Los Angeles Times
- Lucid
- Magellan Strategies
- Maine People's Resource Center
- Marist College
- Market Shares Corp.
- Marketing Resource Group (MRG)
- Marquette University Law School
- Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
- MassINC Polling Group
- McLaughlin & Associates
- Mellman Group
- Minneapolis Star Tribune
- Mitchell Research & Communications
- Monmouth University
- Montana State University Billings
- Moore Information Group
- Morning Consult
- MRG Research
- Muhlenberg College
- National Research
- New England College Polling Center
- Normington, Petts & Associates
- North Star Opinion Research
- OH Predictive Insights
- OnMessage Inc.
- Opinion Dynamics
- Opinion Research Associates
- Øptimus Analytics
- Pan Atlantic Research
- Patriot Polling
- Pew Research Center
- Princeton Survey Research Associates International
- PSB Research
- Public Opinion Strategies
- Public Policy Institute of California
- Public Policy Polling
- Quinnipiac University
- Rasmussen Reports
- Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- Remington Research Group
- Research & Polling Inc.
- Research Co.
- RKM Research and Communications Inc.
- RMG Research
- Roanoke College
- RT Strategies
- Rutgers University
- Saint Anselm College
- Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)
- Selzer
- Siena College
- SoonerPoll.com
- SSRS
- St. Pete Polls
- Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy
- Suffolk University
- SurveyMonkey
- SurveyUSA
- Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
- Swayable
- Targoz Market Research
- Tarrance Group
- The New York Times/Siena College
- The Polling Company Inc.
- The Tyson Group
- The Washington Post
- TIPP Insights
- Trafalgar Group
- University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)
- University of Connecticut
- University of Massachusetts Lowell
- University of New Hampshire
- University of North Florida
- Vox Populi Polling
- We Ask America
- Western New England University Polling Institute
- Wick
- WPA Intelligence
- YouGov
- Zogby Analytics