Muhlenberg College
Graded against the actual result across 26 races (from 66 polls, through 2024).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 25 races Muhlenberg College actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College | 4.11 | 80% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 3.41 | 84% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (26)
Each race Muhlenberg College polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 PA President | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2024 PA Senate | D+3.0 | R+0.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2022 PA Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA-7 House | D+1.0 | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022 PA Senate | EVEN | D+4.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2020 PA-7 House | D+13.0 | D+3.7 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA Governor | D+21.0 | D+17.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA-7 House | D+7.0 | D+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018 PA Senate | D+14.0 | D+13.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016 PA President | D+4.0 | R+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016 PA Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2014 PA Governor | D+12.0 | D+9.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2012 PA President | D+3.0 | D+5.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2012 PA Senate | D+6.0 | D+9.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA Governor | R+7.0 | R+9.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-15 House | R+17.0 | R+14.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA Senate | R+4.0 | R+2.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2008 PA President | D+6.0 | D+10.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2006 PA Governor | D+25.0 | D+20.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2006 PA-8 House | R+5.0 | D+0.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2006 PA Senate | D+8.0 | D+17.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2004 PA-15 House | R+33.0 | R+19.2 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 2004 PA President | D+2.0 | D+2.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2004 PA Senate | R+22.0 | R+10.6 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 2002 PA Governor | D+11.0 | D+9.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1 wk | 5 | 2.75 | -1.49 | 100% |
| 1–3 wk | 29 | 3.42 | -1.64 | 72% |
| 3–6 wk | 19 | 3.98 | -1.72 | 100% |
| 6–9 wk | 13 | 4.01 | -2.13 | 77% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 3 | 8.6 | R+8.6 |
| 2006 | 5 | 6.4 | R+4.5 |
| 2008 | 8 | 2.3 | D+0.4 |
| 2010 | 14 | 3.0 | R+1.2 |
| 2012 | 10 | 2.5 | R+0.8 |
| 2016 | 8 | 4.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2018 | 5 | 2.9 | D+1.7 |
| 2020 | 3 | 6.3 | D+6.3 |
| 2022 | 5 | 2.1 | R+2.1 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.