Trafalgar Group
Graded against the actual result across 89 races (from 174 polls, through 2025).
Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 88 races Trafalgar Group actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what the VotePredictor model predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 4.12 | 66% |
| VotePredictor | 3.51 | 78% |
VotePredictor aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (88)
Each race Trafalgar Group polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1 wk | 63 | 3.69 | -0.59 | 64% |
| 1–3 wk | 51 | 3.75 | -1.32 | 67% |
| 3–6 wk | 43 | 3.70 | -2.04 | 74% |
| 6–9 wk | 17 | 4.77 | -1.38 | 77% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15 | 3.5 | R+0.2 |
| 2017 | 4 | 5.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2018 | 19 | 5.0 | R+2.7 |
| 2020 | 49 | 2.4 | R+1.3 |
| 2021 | 3 | 0.8 | D+0.6 |
| 2022 | 57 | 5.6 | R+5.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | 1.7 | D+1.0 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.