Swayable
Graded against the actual result across 43 races (from 68 polls, through 2020).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 43 races Swayable actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 5.92 | 91% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 3.17 | 95% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (43)
Each race Swayable polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤1 wk | 24 | 5.29 | +1.05 | 88% |
| 1–3 wk | 44 | 6.06 | +1.00 | 96% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.