RT Strategies
Graded against the actual result across 54 races (from 85 polls, through 2006).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 54 races RT Strategies actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 6.01 | 67% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 4.77 | 70% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (54)
Each race RT Strategies polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 43 | 5.45 | +0.39 | 65% |
| 3–6 wk | 39 | 6.66 | +0.96 | 59% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.