University of Massachusetts Lowell
Graded against the actual result across 31 races (from 44 polls, through 2024).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 31 races University of Massachusetts Lowell actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 3.88 | 77% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 3.19 | 90% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (31)
Each race University of Massachusetts Lowell polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 NC Governor | D+12.0 | D+14.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH Governor | R+2.0 | R+9.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2024 MI President | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2024 NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024 NH President | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA President | D+1.0 | R+1.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2024 MI Senate | D+9.0 | D+0.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2024 PA Senate | D+6.0 | R+0.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2022 MA Governor | D+27.0 | D+29.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH Governor | R+16.0 | R+15.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022 NH Senate | D+10.0 | D+9.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC Governor | D+12.0 | D+4.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2020 NH Governor | R+23.0 | R+31.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC President | EVEN | R+1.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 2020 NH President | D+10.0 | D+7.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX President | R+1.0 | R+5.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020 US President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020 NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2020 NH Senate | D+19.0 | D+15.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2020 TX Senate | R+5.0 | R+9.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2018 MA Governor | R+39.0 | R+33.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2018 MA Senate | D+25.0 | D+24.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016 NH Governor | R+4.0 | R+2.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016 NH President | EVEN | D+0.4 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 2016 NH Senate | D+1.0 | D+0.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014 MA Governor | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014 NH Governor | D+4.0 | D+4.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014 NH Senate | D+3.0 | D+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2013 MA Senate | D+20.0 | D+10.2 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2012 MA President | D+20.0 | D+23.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2012 MA Senate | R+1.0 | D+7.5 | 8.5 | ✗ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 26 | 3.72 | -1.34 | 77% |
| 3–6 wk | 14 | 3.52 | -2.18 | 79% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 4 | 5.8 | R+5.8 |
| 2014 | 3 | 1.1 | R+1.1 |
| 2016 | 6 | 1.7 | D+0.6 |
| 2020 | 17 | 4.4 | D+4.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1.2 | R+0.5 |
| 2024 | 8 | 4.8 | D+4.1 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.