PSB Research
Graded against the actual result across 48 races (from 49 polls, through 2010).
Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 46 races PSB Research actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what the VotePredictor model predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| PSB Research | 5.88 | 78% |
| VotePredictor | 4.65 | 89% |
VotePredictor aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (48)
Each race PSB Research polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 AR-1 House | R+12.0 | R+8.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 AZ-1 House | R+7.0 | R+6.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 AZ-5 House | R+3.0 | R+8.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2010 CO-3 House | R+4.0 | R+4.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 CO-4 House | R+3.0 | R+11.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 FL-2 House | R+12.0 | R+12.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 GA-8 House | R+13.0 | R+5.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 HI-1 House | R+4.0 | D+6.5 | 10.5 | ✗ |
| 2010 IA-3 House | D+12.0 | D+4.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2010 IL-10 House | D+12.0 | R+2.2 | 14.2 | ✗ |
| 2010 IL-11 House | R+18.0 | R+14.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 IL-14 House | R+1.0 | R+6.3 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 IL-17 House | R+7.0 | R+9.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 IN-9 House | D+2.0 | R+10.1 | 12.1 | ✗ |
| 2010 MD-1 House | R+3.0 | R+12.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 MI-1 House | R+3.0 | R+11.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 MI-7 House | EVEN | R+4.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2010 MS-1 House | R+5.0 | R+14.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 ND-1 House | D+1.0 | R+9.8 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 2010 NH-1 House | R+5.0 | R+11.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 NH-2 House | R+3.0 | R+1.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 NM-2 House | R+4.0 | R+10.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2010 NV-3 House | R+3.0 | R+0.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 NY-19 House | EVEN | D+4.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2010 NY-24 House | D+10.0 | D+2.1 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 OH-15 House | R+9.0 | R+12.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 OH-16 House | R+3.0 | R+10.8 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-10 House | EVEN | R+10.4 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 2010 PA-11 House | R+5.0 | R+9.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-3 House | R+13.0 | R+11.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-7 House | R+1.0 | R+11.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-8 House | D+3.0 | R+7.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 2010 SC-5 House | R+10.0 | R+10.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 SD-1 House | D+3.0 | R+2.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2010 TN-8 House | R+10.0 | R+20.2 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 TX-17 House | R+12.0 | R+25.2 | 13.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 VA-2 House | R+6.0 | R+10.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 VA-5 House | R+1.0 | R+3.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2010 WA-3 House | R+2.0 | R+5.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 WI-7 House | R+9.0 | R+7.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 WI-8 House | R+1.0 | R+9.6 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 WV-1 House | D+3.0 | R+0.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2009 NJ Governor | R+5.0 | R+3.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2006 NE-3 House | D+6.0 | R+10.0 | 16.0 | ✗ |
| 2005 NJ Governor | D+13.0 | D+10.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2004 US President | R+4.0 | R+2.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2002 NJ-5 House | R+2.0 | R+21.2 | 19.2 | ✓ |
| 2002 NV-3 House | R+1.0 | R+18.8 | 17.8 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 18 | 7.08 | +2.01 | 67% |
| 3–6 wk | 27 | 6.14 | +0.40 | 82% |
| 6–9 wk | 4 | 5.73 | -0.42 | 100% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.