ccAdvertising
Graded against the actual result across 82 races (from 83 polls, through 2014).
Head-to-head vs the VotePredictor model
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 82 races ccAdvertising actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what the VotePredictor model predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 7.31 | 82% |
| VotePredictor | 4.84 | 89% |
VotePredictor aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (82)
Each race ccAdvertising polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 CO Senate | R+6.0 | R+1.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014 KY Senate | R+9.0 | R+15.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2014 MI Senate | R+1.0 | D+13.3 | 14.3 | ✗ |
| 2014 SD Senate | R+22.0 | R+20.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2013 SC-1 House | D+0.5 | R+12.2 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 2013 MA Senate | D+4.2 | D+10.2 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 AR Governor | D+11.7 | D+30.8 | 19.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 CA Governor | R+4.4 | D+12.9 | 17.3 | ✗ |
| 2010 CO Governor | D+26.4 | D+39.9 | 13.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 NH Governor | D+6.0 | D+7.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 NV Governor | R+16.0 | R+11.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 OH Governor | R+3.0 | R+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 OR Governor | R+3.0 | D+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2010 PA Governor | R+6.9 | R+9.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 TX Governor | R+14.3 | R+12.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 WI Governor | R+9.4 | R+5.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 AR-1 House | R+5.5 | R+8.3 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2010 AR-2 House | R+21.3 | R+19.6 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 AZ-1 House | R+19.9 | R+6.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 AZ-5 House | R+16.1 | R+8.8 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 AZ-8 House | R+0.2 | D+1.5 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 2010 CA-11 House | R+8.2 | D+1.1 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 2010 CA-20 House | R+23.3 | D+3.4 | 26.7 | ✗ |
| 2010 CA-47 House | R+16.4 | D+13.7 | 30.1 | ✗ |
| 2010 CO-1 House | D+7.4 | D+38.7 | 31.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 CO-3 House | R+23.4 | R+4.3 | 19.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 CO-4 House | R+12.4 | R+11.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 CO-7 House | D+7.3 | D+11.7 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 DE-1 House | D+12.0 | D+15.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 FL-2 House | R+27.1 | R+12.2 | 14.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 FL-22 House | R+6.4 | R+8.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 FL-24 House | R+17.2 | R+19.3 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 FL-8 House | R+21.3 | R+17.9 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 HI-1 House | R+18.1 | R+8.7 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 IL-10 House | R+9.4 | R+2.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 IL-11 House | R+12.3 | R+14.7 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 IL-14 House | R+8.0 | R+6.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 IL-17 House | R+18.5 | R+9.6 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 NC-11 House | D+0.5 | D+8.7 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 NC-2 House | R+18.0 | R+0.8 | 17.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 NC-7 House | D+2.8 | D+7.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 NC-8 House | D+2.1 | D+9.3 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 NH-1 House | R+6.0 | R+11.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 NH-2 House | R+10.0 | R+1.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 NM-1 House | R+7.5 | D+3.6 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 2010 NM-2 House | R+20.1 | R+10.8 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 NV-3 House | R+9.0 | R+0.7 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 NY-1 House | D+0.2 | D+9.9 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 NY-19 House | R+0.6 | D+4.7 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2010 NY-24 House | R+2.8 | D+2.1 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2010 OH-13 House | D+4.9 | D+11.5 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 OH-16 House | R+14.4 | R+10.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 OH-18 House | R+13.1 | R+13.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 OR-1 House | D+6.4 | D+12.8 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 OR-5 House | D+3.0 | D+5.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-11 House | R+11.8 | R+9.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-12 House | D+0.1 | D+1.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-17 House | D+3.9 | D+11.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-3 House | R+13.8 | R+11.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA-7 House | R+4.9 | R+11.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 TX-17 House | R+11.0 | R+25.2 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 TX-23 House | R+11.0 | R+5.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2010 TX-27 House | R+10.0 | R+0.7 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 WA-2 House | R+3.2 | D+2.1 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2010 WA-3 House | R+7.6 | R+5.9 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 WA-9 House | R+0.8 | D+9.7 | 10.5 | ✗ |
| 2010 WI-7 House | R+15.9 | R+7.7 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2010 WI-8 House | R+10.0 | R+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 WV-1 House | R+6.4 | R+0.8 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 WV-3 House | D+3.6 | D+12.1 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 AR Senate | R+14.6 | R+21.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2010 CA Senate | R+4.1 | D+10.0 | 14.1 | ✗ |
| 2010 CO Senate | D+2.3 | D+1.6 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2010 DE Senate | D+15.3 | D+16.6 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 NH Senate | R+22.7 | R+23.2 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 NV Senate | R+5.9 | D+5.7 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 2010 OH Senate | R+18.3 | R+17.4 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2010 OR Senate | D+13.7 | D+18.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2010 PA Senate | R+7.6 | R+2.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2010 WA Senate | D+0.2 | D+4.7 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 WI Senate | R+7.3 | R+4.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2010 WV Senate | D+3.2 | D+10.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 27 | 7.14 | +2.07 | 85% |
| 3–6 wk | 50 | 7.18 | +1.44 | 78% |
| 6–9 wk | 5 | 7.49 | +1.34 | 80% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 77 | 7.2 | R+6.0 |
| 2014 | 4 | 6.5 | R+3.3 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.