VotePredictor
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Kalshi vs VotePredictor

A CFTC-regulated exchange. Scored on its 2024 state presidential contracts with 100,000 or more contracts traded, at the closing quote of the last full day before Election Day. A market price is the crowd's probability, so it is scored like any forecast: the Brier score of its final pre-election price (lower is better), over 22 races, 2024.

Overall Brier
0.082
Races scored
22

Kalshi vs VotePredictor Elections

On the 22 races Kalshi priced, its final price against our win probability for the same races. Ours is the walk-forward record: each cycle forecast by a model fit only on earlier elections.

ModelBrierCalled right
Kalshi0.08291%
VotePredictor Elections0.024100%

Kalshi against every forecaster and market

Paired with each forecaster and the other markets on only the races both of them called. The blue dot is Kalshi, the grey dot the other side; the line is green where Kalshi scored the better Brier and red where it scored worse.

Kalshi: Brier 0.082 on all 22 of these races · picked the winner in 91% · better than 7 of 15 forecasters and markets on their own races.

KalshiThemBrier, lower is better · hover a row for the numbers

# = rank on the overall leaderboard, which orders this list

  • #1FiveThirtyEight22 racesWorse · closer in 32%
  • #4VotePredictor Elections22 racesWorse · closer in 14%
  • #7JHK Forecasts22 racesWorse · closer in 32%
  • #8Cook Political22 racesBetter · closer in 38%
  • #9Race to the WH22 racesWorse · closer in 18%
  • #10Sabato's Crystal Ball22 racesBetter · closer in 29%
  • #11The Economist22 racesBetter · closer in 32%
  • #12Inside Elections22 racesBetter · closer in 36%
  • #13Fox News22 racesWorse · closer in 29%
  • #14Split Ticket22 racesBetter · closer in 59%
  • #15Polymarket20 racesWorse · closer in 5%
  • #16DDHQ/Decision Desk22 racesWorse · closer in 32%
  • #22Elections Daily22 racesBetter · closer in 33%
  • #24CNalysis22 racesBetter · closer in 52%
  • #25Silver Bulletin22 racesWorse · closer in 36%
0.0160.184

Every race, side by side (22)

VotePredictor was closer in 19 and Kalshi in 3.

RaceMarketOursWinnerCloser
2024 AK PresidentRep 92%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 AZ PresidentRep 70%Rep 91%RepUs
2024 CA PresidentDem 96%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 CO PresidentDem 96%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 FL PresidentRep 90%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 GA PresidentRep 61%Rep 85%RepUs
2024 IA PresidentRep 78%Rep 99%RepUs
2024 ME PresidentDem 89%Dem 99%DemUs
2024 MI PresidentDem 65%Rep 62%RepUs
2024 MN PresidentDem 91%Dem 74%DemThem
2024 NC PresidentRep 62%Rep 86%RepUs
2024 NH PresidentDem 82%Dem 99%DemUs
2024 NJ PresidentDem 93%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 NM PresidentDem 91%Dem 82%DemThem
2024 NV PresidentRep 55%Rep 83%RepUs
2024 NY PresidentDem 96%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 OH PresidentRep 88%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 OR PresidentDem 97%Dem 100%DemUs
2024 PA PresidentRep 51%Rep 74%RepUs
2024 TX PresidentRep 89%Rep 100%RepUs
2024 VA PresidentDem 86%Dem 81%DemThem
2024 WI PresidentDem 60%Rep 69%RepUs

By office

OfficeRacesBrierCalled right
President220.08291%

By cycle

YearRacesBrierCalled right
2024220.08291%