Kalshi vs VotePredictor
A CFTC-regulated exchange. Scored on its 2024 state presidential contracts with 100,000 or more contracts traded, at the closing quote of the last full day before Election Day. A market price is the crowd's probability, so it is scored like any forecast: the Brier score of its final pre-election price (lower is better), over 22 races, 2024.
Kalshi vs VotePredictor Elections
On the 22 races Kalshi priced, its final price against our win probability for the same races. Ours is the walk-forward record: each cycle forecast by a model fit only on earlier elections.
| Model | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0.082 | 91% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 0.024 | 100% |
Kalshi against every forecaster and market
Paired with each forecaster and the other markets on only the races both of them called. The blue dot is Kalshi, the grey dot the other side; the line is green where Kalshi scored the better Brier and red where it scored worse.
Kalshi: Brier 0.082 on all 22 of these races · picked the winner in 91% · better than 7 of 15 forecasters and markets on their own races.
# = rank on the overall leaderboard, which orders this list
- #1FiveThirtyEight22 racesWorse · closer in 32%
- #4VotePredictor Elections22 racesWorse · closer in 14%
- #7JHK Forecasts22 racesWorse · closer in 32%
- #8Cook Political22 racesBetter · closer in 38%
- #9Race to the WH22 racesWorse · closer in 18%
- #10Sabato's Crystal Ball22 racesBetter · closer in 29%
- #11The Economist22 racesBetter · closer in 32%
- #12Inside Elections22 racesBetter · closer in 36%
- #13Fox News22 racesWorse · closer in 29%
- #14Split Ticket22 racesBetter · closer in 59%
- #15Polymarket20 racesWorse · closer in 5%
- #16DDHQ/Decision Desk22 racesWorse · closer in 32%
- #22Elections Daily22 racesBetter · closer in 33%
- #24CNalysis22 racesBetter · closer in 52%
- #25Silver Bulletin22 racesWorse · closer in 36%
Every race, side by side (22)
VotePredictor was closer in 19 and Kalshi in 3.
| Race | Market | Ours | Winner | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 AK President | Rep 92% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 AZ President | Rep 70% | Rep 91% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 CA President | Dem 96% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 CO President | Dem 96% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 FL President | Rep 90% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 GA President | Rep 61% | Rep 85% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 IA President | Rep 78% | Rep 99% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 ME President | Dem 89% | Dem 99% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 MI President | Dem 65% | Rep 62% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 MN President | Dem 91% | Dem 74% | Dem | Them |
| 2024 NC President | Rep 62% | Rep 86% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 NH President | Dem 82% | Dem 99% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 NJ President | Dem 93% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 NM President | Dem 91% | Dem 82% | Dem | Them |
| 2024 NV President | Rep 55% | Rep 83% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 NY President | Dem 96% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 OH President | Rep 88% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 OR President | Dem 97% | Dem 100% | Dem | Us |
| 2024 PA President | Rep 51% | Rep 74% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 TX President | Rep 89% | Rep 100% | Rep | Us |
| 2024 VA President | Dem 86% | Dem 81% | Dem | Them |
| 2024 WI President | Dem 60% | Rep 69% | Rep | Us |
By office
| Office | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| President | 22 | 0.082 | 91% |
By cycle
| Year | Races | Brier | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | 0.082 | 91% |